The finance ministry's Monthly Economic Review (MER) for May, which will be released in mid to late June, is likely to be a quasi-Economic Survey of 2022-23. It may present a detailed assessment and analysis of the state of the Indian economy in the financial year gone by.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team will have the data available for the entire FY23, including gross domestic product and fiscal deficit data, which will both be released on May 31, which will enable them to take a deep-dive into the year and present an update on the assessment carried out in the last Economic Survey, for FY23 and FY24.
This may be the first time that the CEA would use the monthly economic report to present a detailed analysis of the last financial year.
"MERs usually do analyses on a monthly basis. Once we have all the relevant information available, there will be a full recap of the previous financial year. It will be in the MER for May,' a senior government official told Business Standard.
"The May monthly review will be more expansive than usual. It will be more akin to a survey,' a second official said.
Nageswaran presented the 2022-23 Economic Survey on January 31, the day before the 2023-2024 Union Budget, as is the custom. In his post-Budget interaction with Business Standard that day, he said that there would be an update to the survey.
"We will do that because normally Economic Surveys are produced with eight to nine months of data. So we will provide an update," he said.
In the January survey, Nageswaran forecast FY24 GDP growth at a baseline rate of 6.5 per cent and a range of 6-6.8 per cent.
He said the headwinds come primarily from global factors like the war in Europe, high inflation due to the disruption of supply chains, actions by central banks to contain inflation, and the possibility of a recession in many Western economies.
Most of these conditions still hold, though crude oil prices and inflation are lower than in January. In the March MER, released on April 25, the finance ministry stated that India's economy continues to be robust but downside risks to FY24 growth forecasts outweigh upside potential due to factors, such as the ones listed above, as well as adverse weather conditions and the global banking crisis.
Arup Roychoudhury/Business Standard
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