'The campaign by the Mahagathbandan has failed to capture the imagination of the electorate given the fatigue factor with the Nitish government.'
"The Mahagathbandhan should have come up with large-scale welfarist schemes and a promise to increase budgetary allocations for health and education," says Dr Ajay Gudavarthy, Center for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
"When the Congress managed to win in Karnataka and Telangana it came out with a five promise strategy that would be implemented in a time bound manner. It is puzzling it did not repeat that time-tested strategy in Bihar," Dr Gudavarthy tells Rediff's Archana Masih in a detailed two-part interview.
What is the message coming out of Bihar this time? What are some of the defining factors that will impact the outcome of these polls?
Elections should always been analysed keeping the big picture in mind and not restrict it to constituency-wise analysis.
The big story of Bihar that is becoming evident is the story of mass unemployment, distress migration, disillusioned youth, lack of basic health and educational facilities and inability of the governments to invest in any long-term revival or resolution of these issues.
The only solution that political parties have come up with is direct cash transfers as a way of mitigating and taking advantage of the distress situation.
Neither the incumbent NDA nor Mahagathbandan are investing in any alternative model of development, which is otherwise referred to as the 'neoliberal consensus'.
The question that should interest us is how does the electorate behave when they are convinced that political parties have no solutions to the problems that matter the most?
Nitish Kumar's women-centric policies have resulted in women voting for him in large numbers in the past -- and he is banking on the Rs 10,000 cash transfer this time.
Since women voters constitute 48%, will the female vote be the NDA's strongest weapon against anti-incumbency?
Emergence of women as an independent constituency in the last two decades has been one of the inimitable success stories of Indian democracy. This has politicised various issues, including domestic violence, public safety and economic independence of women.
One of the first policies that many other states pursued to address women related issues was that of prohibition of liquor. Consumption of liquor was seen as the single most important cause of debt and domestic violence.
Nitish Kumar will always hold a special place with women voters, who are otherwise neglected and experience routine disrespect.
Direct cash transfer seems to have worked with the Ladki Behen scheme in Maharashtra, however with growing inflation, distress migration among women and micro-finance related suicides, women in Bihar are beginning to raise a different set of economic issues.
It is not only about survival but also empowerment. Do women of Bihar feel empowered and did they achieve social and economic mobility? It is the same question with the youth who are tired of a life without basic dignity.
What is palpable during the campaign is a brewing anger on the ground. This anger, however, is not just a reflection of anti-incumbency, but a pervasive sense of hopelessness.
Also, will the BJP's constant reminders to the people that if the Mahagathbandan comes to power, Bihar will go back to the days of 'Jungle Raj' serve as a deterrent against being voted out?
Campaigns like that of the 'Jungle Raj' have contexts in which they resonate with the electorate and we need to ask if that context has undergone a change.
The change that seems to have come with the imagination of the 'Jungle Raj' is that it has gone beyond caste-specific connotation and it now is a grim reminder of the limitations of the social justice politics of the 1980s.
Social justice politics have given a voice without opportunities. Those critical of the 'Jungle Raj' will be asked if they are creating new opportunities that the Lalu regime failed to do.
With no change in the policy frame what sense does it make for the electorate to respond positively to such epithets?
Yet, unemployment and migration are two major issues that have hobbled the NDA report card despite being in power for nearly 20 years.
Does the Mahagathbandhan have the potential to dislodge the NDA?
Has the Mahagathbandhan been able to formulate a credible campaign against the ruling government and people's fatigue with their long years in power?
The Mahagathbandan managed to create a momentum with the 'Vote Chori' campaign. It is somewhat similar to the kind of euphoria the '10 lakh' job promise created for Tejashwi in the previous elections in Bihar.
The Mahagathbandan seems to have lost the momentum after the 'Vote Chori' campaign reached a peak. Ideally, the Mahagathbandhan should have come up with large-scale welfarist schemes and a promise to increase budgetary allocations for health and education.
When the Congress managed to win in Karnataka and Telangana it came out with a 5 promise strategy that would be implemented in a time bound manner. I am a bit puzzled as to why they did not repeat that time-tested strategy in Bihar.
In situations of extreme distress people look for credible solutions that they are convinced can be done. One government job per family was not backed up by how that is feasible. The campaign by the Mahagathbandan has failed to capture the imagination of the electorate given the fatigue factor with the Nitish government.
Rahul Gandhi and his appeal seem to have grown without necessarily making the Congress party more credible in Bihar.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff