If women voters are mobilised in big numbers to the voting booths on November 6 and 11 by the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, then it will be quite difficult for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan to defeat the incumbent government, points out Sheela Bhatt.
In today's India, Rs 10,000 is a very big amount.
Visit Bihar to check its potency and usefulness for poor families.
In villages, in mohallas after mohallas of poor people, men, and women talk of receiving "Rs 10,000 from Prime Minister Narendra Modi" via direct bank transfers.
They say with a chuckle, "paisa seedha bank main aya (the money has come directly into our bank account)."
In Bihar on the eve of the assembly election the government has given, under the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, Rs 10,000 to all non-tax paying poor women between the ages of 18 and 60 to start businesses of their choice.
If the women voters are mobilised in big numbers to the voting booths on November 6 and 11 by the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance, then it will be quite difficult for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan to defeat the incumbent government.
There is no bigger issue pan-Bihar than the distribution of liquid cash to the poor.
It's not that the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan, that also has the Congress within it, is a weak alliance nor it is lacking in ideology, but the distant past haunts it.
The Bihar assembly election 2025 is surprisingly debating a theme based on realities that existed 20 years ago.
'Jungle Raj' is one of the strong election planks launched by the NDA.
The fear of possible lawlessness, if the RJD led government comes back to power, is deep-rooted in NDA supporters.
To counter this the Mahagathbandhan has tried to raise serious issue of large-scale migration due to the high rate of unemployment and few avenues of livelihood for the youth and few avenues of livelihood for youth in the state.
The manifestos of both alliances are into big-ticket revadis (freebies) distribution to attract voters.
In election season the politics is all about selling dreams, always.
In a spectacle rarely seen before in Bihar neither Nitish Kumar, chief minister for two decades nor the Bharatiya Janata Party which is tagging along with Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal-United nor Tejashwi Yadav, the legendary Lalu Prasad Yadav's political heir, are really Sapno ka Saudagar (sellers of dreams).
It's Prashant Kishor who has stirred up the new generation. He is articulating the issues of the wretched situation of health and education in Bihar in a mix of Hindi and Bhojpuri with a sprinkling of English, words that engage millions of eyeballs.
He is the political rock star of the Bihar election on social media and among the educated youth of Bihar. Few upper caste leaders are secretly mulling over the gains of supporting PK, but Bihar's upper-class voters have a history of making the most of out of their votes. In the end they side with the winning side.
Prashant Kishor is on more difficult terrain than Arvind Kejriwal was when he launched the Aam Aadmi Party in New Delhi.
In Bihar voters flaunt their caste and cleverly calculate the gains and losses before parting with their vote.
Only after conducting due diligence on the basis of the caste-oriented politics of the parties and their candidates do Biharis vote. As they say, "Beti aur vote jaati main hi dena chahiye (Caste consideration is necessary while voting and while fixing daughters' marriages)."
Caste-based politics is prevalent all over India but in Bihar the caste alignment quintessentially means security of the family as well.
Bihar's elections continue to be distinct from other state elections.
If compared to Karnataka, Telangana or Tamil Nadu a lesser amount of money is required by the candidates and the parties.
Bihari voters are politically astute and sturdy in their attitudes.
The poor voters remain on the rock solid ground of hard realities. They are not easy to cajole to join the fantasy trip offered by Prashant Kishor.
Currently, the voters broadly fall into two categories.
Most of the Yadavs (14.2%) and Muslims(17.7%), those who are frustrated with the long-running rule of JD-U-BJP ministers or those who are fed up with the widespread corruption in governance talk of trying their luck by extending support to Tejashwi Yadav and to the small caste-based parties tagged with the Mahagathbandhan.
"'Jungle Raj' is merely the BJP's election-time propaganda," they add. "For the last 2, 3 years the law and order in Bihar is not at all better than it was in Lalu's era."
They quote last week's murder of Dularchand Yadav, who supported a Jan Suraaj Party candidate in Mokama. Anant Singh, who has been named in the first information report and is currently in custody, is the JD-U and NDA candidate in Mokama.
Observers say Anant Singh's arrest will create sympathy for him and consolidate the votes of his upper caste Bhumihar community.
"If Anant Singh wins," a RJD supporter asks a reporter covering the murder in Mokama, "then tell us what has changed in Bihar under Nitish's rule?"
Talk to voters belonging to the non-Yadav OBC (14%), Extremely Backward Classes (36%), converse with women voters and the upper castes (15.52%) like Brahmins, Rajputs and Bhumihars, and they speak with real fear of the era when Lalu Yadav ruled Bihar.
Political pundits claim that people's memories are short.
But it is not so in Bihar where people recall the loot, rapes, kidnapping and lawlessness in towns and villages before Nitish Kumar took over as chief minister to commence his long inning in office.
In the early years of his rule Nitish Kumar did much to take Bihar out of that criminal mess, so much so that people still have a sense of gratitude.
It is claimed that Nitish Kumar currently suffers from partial memory loss. A young voter in Pavapuri near Rajgir tells me, "You don't eject your father from the house just because his memory is fading."
Bihar is, indeed, an incredibly deep society.
Bihar's ongoing political story is marvelous. Lalu Yadav gave a sense of social justice to the OBCs of Bihar. It was the historic turnaround of a caste-oppressed people.
But he failed in providing good governance and maintaining law and order. Yadavs and Muslims secured favours in government offices and at police stations.
His successor Nitish Kumar never abandoned the plank of 'social justice' which effectively meant that the political power remained with the non-upper castes, but unlike Lalu Raj he ensured security for all.
His rule has been imperfect and with many challenges, but the women and children are much safer now than they were in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. In the last 20 years homes in Bihar have regular supply of electricity and improved road connectivity.
The relevant question in 2025 is why would women voters in Bihar, who enjoy better security than before opt for 'badlav' (change), which Prashant Kishor and Tejashwi Yadav advocate?
The Mahagathbandhan has not provided a strong rebuttal to this question and the NDA's propaganda.
The government claims around 75 lakh (7.5 million) poor women have been given Rs 10,000 in respective bank accounts.
The Mahagathbandan calls this a bribe to lure voters, but Home Minister Amit Shah calls it 'seed money' to start a business.
In many ways this Bihar election is a hyper local election where candidates struggle to win battles in 243 seats. If one compares the ticket distribution of the major parties Prashant Kishor has given more tickets to Muslims and the upper castes. While the RJD has favoured Yadavs, the BJP has given a high number of tickets to the upper castes.
The BJP in its defence claims that upper castes leaders are anchors who bring in OBCs, EBCs and Dalits into their fold.
The ticket distribution shows Bihar is not pushing enough to remove the influence of castes in party politics in the current election.
All said and done, Lalu Prasad Yadav remains the centrepoint of the debate long after he has left active politics.
The BJP has ensured that Lalu remains in the news cycle. They are doing everything to not let Tejaswi Yadav get established as 'Bihar's future'.
"RJD leader toh Lalu hi hai" is often repeated during the election campaign so that the fear of 'Jungle Raj' revives and becomes an election plank.
The RJD's core voters and anti-NDA voters like Lalu Prasad Yadav who arrested L K Advani in October 1990 and halted his Ram Janambhoomi rath yatra.
One must wait for the result on November 14 to see if Tejashwi has fallen between two stools. RJD voters wanted a strong leader who can stop the BJP's rise as an independent force in Bihar but to counter the BJP and the JD-U's 'Jungle Raj' argument, Tejashwi presents a sober image in public.
But RJD voters wanted a kind of dabang (tough guy) leadership from Tejashwi because they have fears too.
"Bihar is not a saffron state," a Yadav voter in Patna attached to the RJD tells me. "The BJP failed to win the hearts of a large number of Biharis with just 19% vote share in 2020. The BJP's growth is pathetically slow in Bihar. But things will change soon."
"The NDA must be defeated else this is the last election of the NDA led by the JD-U. By the next assembly election, it will be the BJP versus the RJD! JD-U will be diminished," he adds.
The BJP's major weakness in Bihar is that even after many years in sharing power it doesn't have higher credibility than Nitish Kumar. Its leaders lack the charisma to match Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Nor does it has the wherewithal to bring in under its umbrella loyal JD-U voters like EBC and Dalits without Nitish Kumar's help.
But surely and steadily the BJP is showing all signs of change within.
It is creating pressure in sections of northern and northwest Bihar where Muslim and Yadav voters know that the BJP, which has been in a "slow motion" in Bihar for the last two decades and tags along with Nitish Kumar, will now unfold a new plan for Bihar.
The BJP's talk of demographic changes in the border areas of Bihar are louder in this election. The SIR exercise is seen by the RJD as targeting legal and illegal Muslims in northern Bihar.
In short, whether it wins or loses, the BJP, which is fighting 101 out of Bihar's 243 seats, is itching to get ambitious by the next assembly election.
Bihar is entering a new era. It will take off, at last.
The Bihar of 2025 is on the cusp of change, and in a big way.
It is in transition and its rulers will find people asking for more.
Migrant Biharis have seen an India better than what they encounter in their state. All parties understand this.
After November 14, the BJP will be aggressive like never before.
Prashant Kishor will enter the second phase of the long process of making his party after calculating the gains and losses of Election 2025.
Tejashwi Yadav will have to find his exclusive place in Bihar which is different than what the Mandal politics created in the 1980s.
If the NDA wins Bihar, then it will inject fundamental changes in the way Bihar is governed today.
Prashant Kishor and Tejashwi Yadav ask Narendra Modi repeatedly: 'Why do you gift factories to Gujarat and want victory in Bihar?'
The answer lies in creating the trust of investors. NDA rule has not succeeded in getting investors to Bihar.
If the NDA wins Bihar it will see the end of the era of socialist leaders and kickstart change in the fundamental attitude of Biharis.
This election is crucial for the BJP and for the RJD to get hold of the state in the post-Nitish era.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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