'When maximum voter participation occurs, they do not vote to re-elect the incumbent government. They vote to change it.'
'How can anyone credibly suggest that crores of young voters -- particularly the unemployed youth -- would vote to re-elect an existing government that has demonstrably failed them?'
Indrajeet Prasad Gupta, founder of the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP), has emerged as a force in Bihar's political landscape ahead of the 2025 assembly elections. A former Congress leader who established his own political outfit, Gupta represents the Paan Samaj -- the Tanti-Tatva community of weavers -- and heads the All India Paan Mahasangh.
Earlier, in April, he organised the Paan Samaj Adhikar Rally at Patna's Gandhi Maidan, demonstrating his considerable political influence among the traditionally marginalised weaving community. The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Congress, CPI, CPI (ML)L, CPI-M and the Vikassheel Insaan Party, allocated the Saharsa seat from its quota to Gupta's IIP, making it the seventh constituent of the grand alliance.
His rise in Bihar's politics became evident as Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi called on Gupta to stand with them at rallies and address the crowds, and on public demand -- from people belonging to the Paan community -- speak one sentence in English.
Recalling a conversation that he has had with almost all the journalists who interview him, Gupta narrates a story that explains people outside the state to understand his ascent in Bihar's politics.
"You know," Gupta says with a hint of amusement, "there was a time when even asking for one ticket would get us brushed aside. No one took us seriously back then."
"Today, those same people come to me and ask, 'Guptaji, how many tickets would you like?' That's what changes when you build an organisation, when people stand together and speak with one voice."
"Give it a little more time," he adds, soon they'll be the ones saying, 'Guptaji, how many of your people should we make ministers?'"
Despite what Gupta says he knows that today, that his community stands at the centre of a Constitutional battle after the Supreme Court in 2024 quashed the 2015 Bihar government notification categorising Tanti-Tatva as scheduled caste, ruling that states cannot unilaterally alter SC lists. And this is what, he reveals in this interview, he plans to change in the course of time.
An engineer by training, Gupta has an MTech degree and ran a successful IT business in Mumbai before he formed the Indian Inclusive Party.
In this interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff, Gupta, on his way to his constituency Sahrsa by road from Patna, discusses why his party has become indispensable to the Mahagathbandhan, and why he believes Bihar is on the cusp of transformational change.
You represent the Tanti-Tatva-Paan community, which traditionally hasn't been considered numerically dominant in Bihar's intricate caste arithmetic.
Yet the Mahagathbandhan has accorded you a position of considerable prominence. How do you respond to this assessment?
I must respectfully challenge that premise. Who has determined that we lack numerical strength in Bihar? This is precisely the misconception I have spent the past year dismantling.
How big is the Tanti-Tatva-Paan demography in Bihar?
We number approximately one crore (10 million) in Bihar, with our presence spanning 28 districts across the state. The fundamental issue is not our numbers -- it is that we have been systematically denied political representation for the past 75 years.
We have not been allocated a single assembly ticket throughout this period. When you lack representation in any legislative body, when nobody articulates your concerns at any fora, the inevitable consequence is political marginalisation. This has been a deliberate conspiracy against our community since Independence.
We have consistently voted -- sometimes for the Congress, sometimes for the RJD, and over the past two decades for the BJP and JD-U. Yet our ballots have never been properly accounted for. They stripped away our reservation status in 2005.
Subsequently, we launched a vigorous agitation campaign. Following six months of sustained mobilisation across Bihar -- during which I visited every district and virtually every village inhabited by our community -- I discovered we constitute more than 45 lakh voters (4.5 million) representing a population between 80 lakh (8 million) and one crore.
We may not have substantial presence in Jahanabad, Kishanganj, and Sheohar, but there is not a single district in Bihar where we number fewer than one lakh (100,000). In Saharsa (from where Gupta is contesting), we are 7.5 lakh (750,000) strong. In Sitamarhi, we exceed 6 lakh (600,000).
Now that both phases of polling have concluded, what is your assessment of the results that will be declared on November 14?
I am pretty confident the Mahagathbandhan will win a thumping majority. We will get between 160 and 170 seats out of 243.
And the IIP will retain all three seats it contested?
Actually, we contested two seats, not three. We fielded candidates in Jamalpur and Saharsa, and we are confident of victory in both constituencies.
If you are projecting 160 to 170 seats, that represents an overwhelming majority. What factors do you believe will produce such a decisive mandate for the Mahagatbandhan alliance?
The people have voted for change. Bihar's youth desperately desire a change in government. We -- the Tanti-Tatva-Paan Samaj -- were the decisive factor. We have been the black horse, silently voting for the BJP and JD-U in previous elections.
In all 158 constituencies where we maintain a presence -- with a minimum of 10,000 voters and a maximum of 80,000 -- we now represent a formidable force. This election witnessed an unprecedented coalition: Tanti-Tatva-Paan, Muslims, and Yadavs voted as an intact bloc.
Perhaps five per cent here, two per cent there might have diverted due to monetary influence, but overwhelmingly, we united behind the Mahagathbandhan.
Our voters who had drifted towards the NDA returned to the (Mahagatbandhan) fold. Mukesh Sahani's community joined us. The youth clamouring for employment opportunities came with us.
As for the women voters, while the Bihar and central governments relied upon the Rs 10,000 financial assistance and distributed bribes they will fall flat on their faces with women voters.
There are several crucial factors to consider.
In a village with 100 women, only 20 received this benefit.
Secondly, when you account for Muslim women, who predominantly did not support the NDA, the effective beneficiary count drops to approximately 25 lakh (2.5 million).
Thirdly, young people between 18 and 30 years of age, determined to effect governmental change, neutralised the influence upon their sisters and mothers who accepted government assistance. Many were informed this constitutes a loan, not freely distributed largesse.
Fourthly, sympathy remained with Nitish Kumar personally, not with the BJP, LJP, or other NDA constituents. There are numerous seats where JD-U core voters actively desired the BJP's defeat. They ensured the defeat of LJP candidates. They did not want the chief minister's face obscured.
The traditional JD-U electorate wanted the BJP's tally reduced to marginal numbers, thereby ensuring Nitish Kumar's party retained greater numerical strength and he would be selected as chief minister. These dynamics operated extensively at the ground level.
Consider the constituency from which I contested -- Saharsa. It comprises four assembly segments. We received overwhelming support from JD-U voters.
The electorate that traditionally supports JD-U cast their ballots for you in this election?
Indeed. They not only voted for us -- they openly campaigned on our behalf. They traversed villages advocating our candidature quite publicly.
How do you interpret the exit poll projections? They uniformly predict an NDA sweep...
The exit polls represent the BJP's fabrication. They seek to influence the officers who will preside over counting tables. They aim to bolster their supporters' morale while demoralising ours. It is purely psychological warfare.
If you examine electoral history and the voter turnout patterns, this election witnessed turnout levels that are remarkable by any historical standard -- unprecedented not merely in Bihar, but across India.
When maximum voter participation occurs, they do not vote to re-elect the incumbent government. They vote to change it.
How can anyone credibly suggest that crores of young voters -- particularly the unemployed youth -- would vote to re-elect an existing government that has demonstrably failed them?
Are you satisfied with the data and processes managed by the Election Commission of India?
No, I am not satisfied. The Election Commission essentially functions as an instrument of the (Narendra) Modi government. Nobody harbours confidence in them. We, as a political party, cannot possibly be satisfied. Interrogate any ordinary citizen -- they do not trust the manner in which the Election Commission functions.
Do you believe the alleged voter list manipulation that Rahul Gandhi's campaign highlighted actually transpired in Bihar this election?
Absolutely. In numerous border constituencies -- take Supaul, for instance -- 57 lakh to 60 lakh (5.7 million to 6 million) voters were removed from the rolls; and only 20 lakh (2 million) were subsequently restored.
Initially, I believe 50 per cent comprised duplicate entries and deceased individuals who were eliminated. Previously, if you had 100 registered voters in every lakh but only 80 actually existed, and 40 cast ballots, the turnout percentage appeared lower.
Now that only actual voters remain registered, the turnout percentage naturally appears higher. That constitutes one explanation for the dramatic increase in voter participation rates.
To what extent has the 2025 Bihar election evolved into a leadership contest between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav?
Regarding Nitish Kumar, there is no contest whatsoever. Nitish Kumar has reached the terminal stage of his political career. Everyone recognises he no longer possesses the capacity to serve as chief minister. He has begun forgetting things quite significantly.
We respect him, we harbour sympathy towards him, but we do not envisage him as chief minister any longer.
Are you predicting that Nitish Kumar's political career has concluded? Was this his final election?
I believe if -- and that is a big if -- the NDA were to return to power, they might install him as chief minister for two or three months for appearance's sake.
But you are projecting 160 to 170 seats for the Mahagathbandhan...
Precisely! Between 160 and 170 seats.