'...in comparison to his presence in the previous election campaign where he looked robust and vibrant.'
'His television and social media interviews looked dull and predictable.'
'There could be a different kind of fatigue of being out of power for a long time at work here.'
"Campaign against the BJP needs to look energetic to look convincing. This performative aspect was missing as far as Tejashwi is concerned. This might also impact the credibility of the promises he has made," explains Dr Ajay Gudavarthy, professor at the Center for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
In the concluding part of the interview to Rediff's Archana Masih, Dr Gudavarthy discusses what sets this election different from the past and that if the National Democratic Alliance wins, it will be because of the failure of the Opposition to capture the imagination of the electorate and lack the organisational heft of the BJP.
How is the Bihar contest poised? What sets this poll battle different from the past?
This round of elections in Bihar has demonstrated clearly that caste-based voting is more of a compulsion born out of lack of choice. Bihar can move out of voting exclusively on the basis of caste identities.
The expansion of the CPI (ML) Liberation is also an important marker of this possibility. It is the political parties which are more interested in arresting people within the confines of their caste and not the other way round where people are incapable of looking beyond caste.
People are resisting domination and bullying whether from the Thakurs and Bhumihars or the Yadavs. They see pervasive lawlessness as detrimental to their interests and if offered a choice would want to see the end of the reign of Bahubalis, history-sheeters and henchmen.
People realise this is not a sustainable way of being inclusive or empowered, but parties don't seem to be prepared to acknowledge this.
If the NDA pulls a victory -- will it be considered as Nitish Kumar's victory or Narendra Modi's?
It is very clear that Narendra Modi is not the centre of the campaign of the NDA. He has not managed to become the centre of the talking point. His attempts to garner sympathy around his mother being allegedly insulted did not gain any emotive response from the electorate.
Nitish too failed to galvanise, it is in fact his failing health that has caught people's attention. If the NDA wins it will be seen more as a failure of the Opposition parties to repeatedly capture the imagination of the electorate and lack the organisational heft of the BJP.
What is the possibility of the BJP orchestrated defections from the JD-U after the results?
Defections depend on electoral tally. If the JD-U manages to get less than 25 seats, and the BJP manages to expand its footprint then defections are a clear possibility.
But we do have to remember that the Modi government is dependent on JD-U support also at the Centre. The later fact may keep a check on the BJP`s machinations.
How has the RJD changed under Tejashwi Yadav? With promises of Rs 30,000 to women, government jobs to one person per family, free electricity for agriculture, MSP support -- can he woo voters?
Surprisingly, Tejashwi looked lacklustre all through the campaign in comparison to his presence in the previous election campaign where he looked robust and vibrant.
His television and social media interviews looked dull and predictable. There could be a different kind of fatigue of being out of power for a long time at work here.
Campaign against the BJP needs to look energetic to look convincing. This performative aspect was missing as far as Tejashwi is concerned. This might also impact the credibility of the promises he has made.
We need to remember that there is no big time difference in the quality of promises being made. There is no standout promise that looks to make a decisive difference in people's lives.
In the din and calibrated noise that the BJP deliberately creates, lot of the capacity to set a counter-narrative is lost by the Opposition parties.
What impact is Prashant Kishor going to have? Is the Jan Suraj in for the long haul in Bihar?
Prashant Kishor is making an interesting experiment based on his past experience in managing elections for other leaders. This is like the director of a film trying to become a hero!
Strategising is one thing, gaining the trust of the people is a completely different ball game. Educated people are mostly seen with a sense of suspicion in electoral politics.
One should not forget that best of social activists failed miserably in the electoral arena. It looks more like Prashant Kishor's middle class sensibilities are at work here. His long stint at the UN and his access to large data sets may not rescue him from gaining people's trust.
Trust emerges when people identify with leaders who are one amongst them. If Jan Suraaj does not manage a decent vote share it may not be able to sustain itself. If he gets a decent share, we might be looking at a possibility of a hung assembly in Bihar. This well could be a way of punishing the parties for repeatedly failing the people.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff