Will the BJP-BSP alliance in UP last?

George Iype in New Delhi

The unusual power-sharing pact hammered out by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh is unlikely to last long, given the mercurial nature of BSP supremo Kanshi Ram and the former's inability to shake off its upper caste tag.

The extraordinary experiment will nevertheless benefit the BJP to learn the fine art of sharing power in the era of coalition politics and make its chances of stepping towards national power brighter.

Top BJP leaders contend that the logic that compelled the party to join hands with Kanshi Ram is its belief that enhancing its UP vote bank is vital to grab power at the Centre in the next general election. The party expects the United Front government headed by Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda to fall within six months.

"We have the people's mandate to rule UP -- the BJP emerged the single largest party in the last assembly election. Therefore, the BJP-BSP alliance is holistic," BJP vice-president Sikander Bakht said.

The experiment in UP, he told Rediff On The NeT is ''a leap forward'' for the BJP to move realistically towards national power. ''But our utmost priority in UP is the restoration of the rule of law as corruption and criminality are the order of the day under Governor Romesh Bhandari," Bakht added.

But political observers do not foresee longevity in a coalition government in which the chief ministership is rotated every six months between the political partners.

They cite three reasons that could make the BJP and BSP part ways within six months.

Firstly, it is unlikely that Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram will concede the chief ministership to the BJP's Kalyan Singh after six months.

Secondly, the experiment will collapse if the Vishwa Hindu Parishad goes ahead with its campaign to liberate the controversial Kashi and Mathura temples.

Thirdly, it is unlikely that the Mayawati-Kalyan Singh combine will be in a position to fight the corruption, criminalisation and atrocities against the weaker sections in UP with single-minded devotion.

Many, however, believe the power-sharing arrangement in UP will be 'Advantage BJP' as the party could direct its efforts to attract not only the BSP's votebank -- the dalits and weaker sections -- but of the Janata Dal and Samajwadi Party as well.

A senior BJP leader said that the party's strategy is to seize the BSP's social justice plank. ''The alliance will help us erase the BJP's public image of being a brahmnical party," he added.

But the BJP leadership expects much more than merely shaking off its upper caste tag under the new arrangement. The party believes that in UP and Madhya Pradesh, both states where the Congress is in shambles, a BJP-BSP alliance has the potential to win the bulk of the parliamentary seats.

The BJP is also sufficiently encouraged by the successful coalition experiments in Punjab with the Akali Dal and in Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena to give up its internal hostility to such power-sharing arrangements.

As for Kanshi Ram, the BSP's second innings in power in UP is a chance to file all the cases against Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and members of his party.

Many believe that Kanshi Ram will change sides after Mayawati's six month stint in office ends.

On June 21, 1996, the BSP supremo had announced his alliance with the Congress at a joint press conference along with then Congress chief P V Narasimha Rao -- almost like the way he did on Wednesday.

But the alliance received a jolt when the Congress was unable to put enough pressure on the United Front government to support a Mayawati-led government in UP. Later the two parties failed to come together to fight the Punjab assembly election.

Days before he clinched a deal with the Congress last year, Kanshi Ram had told Rediff On The NeT that Mulayam Singh Yadav was a greater evil than the BJP. "The BJP is like a cobra," he said. "If you are alert, you can escape its poison. But Mulayam is like a snake in the grass. He can bite you anytime."

Kanshi Ram has now chosen to align with the BJP, but are Mayawati and he alert enough to escape the "cobra"?