Laloo's arrest will benefit him in the long run

With the Supreme Court on Tuesday rejecting the anticipatory bail petition of the former Bihar chief minister Laloo Prasad Yadav for his alleged involvement in the fodder scam, his arrest, which seems imminent, is likely to benefit him politically in the long term.

In fact, Laloo Yadav, also the Rashtriya Janata Dal president, decided to step down from the chief ministership in favour of his wife Rabri Devi only after calculating that he would be arrested for his role in the Rs 9.5 billion fodder scam. He convincingly proved that his supporters were firmly behind him when Rabri Devi comfortably won her government's trust vote in the Bihar assembly.

Even as Laloo Yadav's critics and detractors hope that he will be jailed soon and given exemplary punishment for his role in the scam, it is more likely that he will become a martyr among his admirers in Bihar. The ease with which Laloo Yadav formed the RJD, which won the vote of confidence earlier, and his wife's victory on Monday clearly indicates that his supporters are solidly behind him.

Given Yadav's cult status among his supporters, they will leave no stone unturned to help him in his time of adversity and crisis. Certainly the Rabri Devi ministry in Bihar will go out of its way to make Laloo Yadav's stay in prison, if it comes to that, as comfortable as possible. Thus, no matter what the central authorities' order, the Bihar administration will bend rules to provide various comfort to Yadav.

Reports filtering in from Patna indicate that Laloo Yadav's supporters are working themselves up to a frenzy in anticipation of his imminent arrest. Although widespread violence in Bihar following his arrest has been ruled out because the Rabri administration would not like to invite President's rule, Laloo Yadav's supporters are bound to make a big show (and consequently capitalise on it) of his arrest.

Besides, the Rabri Devi government is likely to orchestrate demonstrations and rallies to display support for the chief minister's husband. It is not unlikely that the state administration, packed with Laloo Yadav's men, would also join the spectacle. Only about three weeks ago, the central authorities had discovered that the Bihar traffic police had been compounding traffic jams in an apparent show of solidarity with the former chief minister.

No one is sure how long Laloo Yadav will be interred. One school of thought believes that soon after his arrest, he will be released on some technical ground. Although his anticipatory bail plea has been rejected, analysts feel the former chief minister will get regular bail, even if it takes some time. It is that vital period which Laloo Yadav is likely to exploit to the hilt by wearing the garb of a wronged man so that he can bounce back into the thick of Bihar politics.