The Rediff Special / J N Dixit
It would be unrealistic to expect US involvement
with Pakistan to decline qualitatively
That there is some fundamental
rethinking on the importance of
India on the United States in US think-tanks and economic circles
was reflected in the recommendation of the US Council on Foreign
Relations that the United States should seriously examine
forging a contentful strategic equation with India, a report which
agitated the then Pakistani ambassador to Washington, Maleeha Lodhi.
The comparatively more critical uncertainties in Pakistan may
generate concerns in Pakistan about Indo-US relations, but it
would be unrealistic to expect US strategic interests in and involvement
with Pakistan to decline qualitatively.
Two important visits from
India to the US are scheduled during the first half of 1997.
A high-powered delegation led by our Cabinet secretary is expected
to visit the United States to augment US economic involvement
in the core sectors of the Indian economy. The Indian commissioners
for non-resident Indians is also scheduled to visit the US during
this period.
Unless there are unexpected political developments
and economic upheavals in India, one could conclude that Indo-US
relations will continue on an even keel without any spectacular
trends of growth or decline.
There are, however, critical issues
which will continue to generate distances between India and the
United States. The first among these are non-proliferation, arms
control and denial of certain categories of technology. Clinton
has already announced that he will send a message to the
committee on disarmament in Geneva to proceed expenditiously with
the finalisation of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. This
is in conformity with the declared US objective of making the
nuclear weapon threshold states cap, roll back, and eliminate
their nuclear capacities.
Negotiations and finalisation of the
FMCT would be purposively encouraged by the United States in the
coming year. India's predicament and its response will have to
be more or less similar to the one which India adopted in relation
to the CTBT, because the CTBT in conjunction with the FMCT will impose
unacceptable limitations on India's security options and technological
potentialities.
Interacting with the United States to avoid this
second confrontation on a sensitive issue while firmly safeguarding
Indian interests would be an important challenge faced by India's
policies towards the US. India would also have to cope with regimes
for technology denial, imposing limitations on an escalating scale
against developing countries, a process which is not just encouraged
but led by the United States.
Convincing the United States that
India's realising its own technological potential with appropriate,
external inputs poses no strategic threat to the United States,
would be another important objective of our US policy.
Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel was in Islamabad and
Dhaka in the last week of January. Nicholas Burns, the state
department spokesman, described Raphel's visit as a reflection
of the great importance that the United States attaches to South
Asia.
Raphel presided over a meeting of US ambassadors in South
Asia in Dhaka to review the current state of the US's relations with
countries in this region and perhaps to make recommendations on the future
directions of US policies towards this region during Clinton's
second term.
As Raphel is moving out of her present post, how
far Madeleine Albright and Inderfurth would accept the recommendations
emanating from the Dhaka meeting is a moot point. While ruling
out US intentions of mediating between India and Pakistan on the
Kashmir issue, Raphel continued to insist that the United
States considers Kashmir 'a disputed area' and that 'India and
Pakistan need to negotiate to resolve this issue.'
Obviously, the US establishment is averse to accept the credibility of the
political processes which have been successfully set in motion
by India in our state of Jammu and Kashmir. The US approach to
this problem has more to do with US interests in Pakistan than
the emerging realities or the merits of the case.
Examining prospects of Indo-US relations in a larger context,
one has to take note of secretary Albright's
views on China and Pakistan. Speaking about Sino-Pak co-operation
on the supply and manufacture of M-11 ballistic missiles, Albright
said : 'The Administration's conclusion is that the known transfers
(to Pakistan) are not of a destabilising number and type.'
She went on to say that the US is more concerned about China's
co-operation with Iran in this sphere.
While co-operation with Pakistan
is not of a destabilising nature, according to Albright, Sino-Iranian
co-operation would be actively monitored. Albright also elaborated
that the United States desires to take further steps beyond the
Brown amendment (the step which restored military supplies to
Pakistan) to enhance Pakistan-American ties.
In her assessment,
Sino-Pakistan co-operation has not crossed the threshold
of sanctionable activity. She articulated the basic orientation
of US policies towards Pakistan by saying 'We plan to continue
working to build a broad and co-operative relationship with Pakistan
that will serve our mutual interests.' Albright emphasised
that the focus of US attention in Asia would be on China.
While acknowledging that there are differences of opinion and concern
about certain aspects of Chinese policy, she felt the US 'should
not over-react' on such issues. The United States 'cannot
hold its relations with China hostage to one issue or the other,'
she said.
The positive measure of constructive engagement between China
and the US is the fact that Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen
would be among the first superpower figures to visit
Washington after Clinton's inauguration.
US interests in the Asian region now have three objectives: A
strategic equilibrium with China, nurturing and expanding economic
relations with all the Asian countries and the consolidation of
relations with countries which have been traditionally responsive
to US interests in the region, stretching from Japan to ASEAN,
to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, up to Turkey.
India's size, resources
and strategic location ensures that we cannot be ignored by the
US. But whether we will be a significant factor in their scheme
of things is doubtful, due to our own limitations and, more important,
our security interests.
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