The Rediff Special /J N Dixit

The peace effort is tentative and prospects remain uncertain for the present

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirkumar in press statements in Colombo and New Delhi has indicated the Sri Lankan government will not dilute its stand during negotiations with the LTTE. He said that while Fox's discussions with Sri Lankan authorities had constructive motives, there is no concrete proposal for British mediation.

The Fox initiative comes at a time when his Conservative Party faces defeat in Thursday's British general election. It is uncertain whether the Labour government will continue his initiative.

The LTTE has been displaced from the Jaffna peninsula and military operations continue against it in Jaffna and the eastern parts of the island. Though the LTTE has lost Jaffna, its cadres have spread out in the central eastern and eastern provinces of Sri Lanka. Recent estimates have it that the LTTE still has about 10,000 armed cadres and, despite tremendous pressure on it, is still capable of garnering arms and financial and material resources. Significantly perhaps, the LTTE had not given a categorical positive response to the Fox initiative till mid-April.

While Wickramasinghe may have told the British official that the UNP would work in tandem with Kumaratunga's People's Alliance, it is a moot point whether he can translate this assurance into actual party policy. Given the attitude of the armed forces, the Buddhist clergy and Sinhalese majority, the UNP must develop a great amount of detachment from the objective of seeking power if it were to really fulfill the assurance given to Fox.

Kumaratunga's proposals, which have been filtered and fine-tuned through parliamentary discussions, are expected to be legitimised through a referendum, if possible. The proposals fall short of some basic LTTE demands and, therefore, may not be accepted by the LTTE in their present form.

Will British mediation succeed in making the Sri Lankan Tamils resile from their position? And will the Muslims and Sinhalese accept any dilution of Kumaratunga's proposals, which have taken into account the transformed religious-ethnic concerns of different communities in Sri Lanka? Have the Sri Lankan people reached a saturation point so that they can transcend political attitudes and viewpoints that have evolved since the withdrawal of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force from Sri Lanka in 1990?

The predicaments to be overcome are physically and psychologically complex. It should also be recalled that whenever the LTTE had been under political or military pressure, it has been willing to negotiate, to gain time to regroup and rearm. Is this recent British initiative a result of similar tactics by the LTTE or is it based on the assessment that the LTTE will be ready for a political long-term solution after years of military struggle?

Events in the coming months will answer these questions. While the Fox initiative has a positive aim and constructive motives, the effort is tentative and prospects remain uncertain for the present.

Related stories:
Landmark peace initiative in Lanka
Peace talks an LTTE ploys, say observers
Britain denies any contact with the LTTE

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