The Rediff Special/Virendra Kapoor

In today's fractured polity, the BJP alone satisfies the craving for a stable and strong government

Sitaram Kesri must be the most hated man in India today. Even among his peers the Congress president's rating was running close to zero. For never before had someone caused so much havoc in return for so little. Not long ago, both Charan Singh and Chandra Shekhar too had wrecked duly established governments. And for their labours they had had the consolation of going down in history as former prime ministers. The office of prime minister which Kesri had come to lust after at the ripe old age of 81 will almost certainly elude him.

Indeed, he will be fortunate if he survived unscathed the political upheaval caused by him with his wholly inexplicable letter to the President on Easter Sunday snuffing out the life of the 10-month- old Deve Gowda government.

The eternal backroom operator committed two cardinal sins. He, of course, could not be blamed for developing such high ambitions so late in his life. After all, there was no objective criterion for achieving glory in the 112-year-old organisation. For long power had been the preserve of members of the Nehru- Gandhi family. After the dynasty, by a fortuitous turn of events it had smiled on a non-leader like P V Narasimha Rao. Rao's mounting troubles at the hands of the law resulted in the non-descript Congress treasurer becoming the party president. Kesri was now convinced that fate had willed him to lead the nation. He chanced his luck and tried to become the prime minister. He failed.

In the dominant Hindu ethos anyone hankering after power is seen to be wicked, nay, evil. This is in sharp contrast to the upfront grab for power often witnessed in Western democracies. Mahatma Gandhi had shunned power all his life although he was clothed in power for as long as he lived. For most Indians, he was the epitome of self- sacrifice. In recent days, former prime minister V P Singh had emerged as the patron-saint of the Third Force precisely because he had gone to great lengths to make a show of his abnegation of power.

The wise men of the UF wanted him to be the PM. He refused. And as a consequence refurbished his image as a selfless leader. His exertions from the hospital bed in the recent crisis in New Delhi too made him out to be an extraordinary human being above the blandishments of office which normally corrupt ordinary mortals.

Kesri's other sin was strategic. He failed to hide his ambition behind the garb of public weal. Indira Gandhi had decimated the well-entrenched Syndicate in 1969 by shedding copious tears in public for the poor and the weak. The self-serving nationalisation of 14 private banks was meant to be proof for an unsuspecting public of her credentials as a socialist whose heart bled for the have-nots as against Morarji Desai and Co who were alleged to be in cahoots with the haves. Kesri suffered from a sudden rush of blood to the head and shot off that letter to Dr Sharma. It was only later that he looked for reasons to justify his impulsive action.

What next? Admittedly, Kesri was desperately looking for a face-saver. If only the wise men of the UF could elect a G K Moopanar or even an I K Gujral as their leader, the Congress could go back to the status quo as before March 30. In his chastened mood, Kesri would want to put another government in place as soon as possible. Minus him and any other Congressman. He knows that his gamble has misfired. And he knows that he could burn his fingers badly should the present crisis lead to a snap poll.

Given Kesri's need for damage control and the general aversion of most MPs for another election so soon after the one last May, it was not beyond the genius of the present House to find a way out of the current mess. The Congress might soon play midwife to the birth of another UF government, with or without the support of the Leftist groups.

However the seeds of early destruction of such a coalition too would be present at its birth should the Congress refuse to join it or be kept out by the UF leaders. For it is unnatural to expect the single largest supporter of the coalition to sit out in the cold even as minor groups rule the roast in government.

If it is recognised that India had now truly entered the coalition mode, isn't it time honest efforts were made to craft a government which reflected fully individual group strengths in the House. A coalition based on a common minimum programme which facilitated power sharing according to each constituent's strength in Parliament will prove to be more durable than the half way house which had crumbled like the proverbial house of cards last Friday.

It is true that most constituents in the UF had for long bitterly opposed the Congress. It may be that the Communists remain allergic to support a government in which the Congress has an active role to play. But the leaders of other centrist parties would have to opt for one or the other major magnet in the polity in order to wield power at the Centre and in later years to survive electorally. Their choice was limited to the `communal' BJP and the `corrupt' Congress. They cannot take on both simultaneously. That would be a frustrating task. Join one, and fight the other. But if the UF leaders still suffered from Congress phobia they ought not to have in the first place sought its support to form a government.

It was odd that the Congress with 144 members was treated like a pariah by the very people who had depended on it for the survival of their ministry. The Congress was not likely to play the bonded slave of the UF for long. That is why an honest Congress-UF coalition alone could break the logjam of numbers in the 11th Lok Sabha. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to happen, at least not in the immediate course. Kesri with his foolish and ill-timed move had botched the chances of such a coalition.

Meanwhile, despite the blood-letting on the country's bourses, the current phase of political instability was not without a silver lining or two. For one, the consensus on passing the Finance Bill underlined the welcome development that our netas could rise above their partisan agendas in order to protect national interest. It was also heartening that in spite of feeling disgusted with the party chief and in spite of their refusal to countenance a situation which pushed them into an early election, not one Congress MP defied the party whip. This was all the more remarkable considering that Kesri evoked derision among the Congress rank and file and further afield in the country at large.

There can be little doubt that another election cannot be put off for long. Despite Deve Gowda, if there is another UF government backed by the Congress it might last eight-ten months. Besides, immediately it might help Kesri save his job as Congress president. But the logic of the current three-way division in the House dictates an early poll.

Barring the BJP, if none is enthusiastic about it, it is mainly because various groups which together constitute what passes for the UF cannot hope to improve on their present strength. For instance, the DMK- TMC combine cannot better their present tally of 37 out of 39 in Tamil Nadu, with the other two seats being held by their ally, the CPI.

Similarly, Mulayam Singh Yadav is mortified of an election at this stage when the BSP- BJP government in UP was yet to commit a major blunder. It is not hard to guess what is in store for the Congress should a poll be held now.

Therefore, one believes that in the coming days before the Lok Sabha meets to take up Chidambaram's Budget on April 21, there shall be a serious attempt to revive the UF-Congress arrangement at power- sharing. Modalities can be slightly different, but the support structure will remain more or less the same. This would suit the BJP too.

Another bout or two of instability, and the Hindutva party would be home and dry in the next election on the shoulders of popular disgust with the sordid goings- on in New Delhi. In today's fractured polity, the BJP alone satisfies more and more Indians's craving for a stable and strong government.

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