'Pakistan cannot sustain a war with India for more than four days. They are in such dire straits. At best they can sustain war for one week.'
India has downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and suspended the Indus Water Treaty post the Pahalgam terror attack by Pakistan-based terror outfit The Resistance Front in which 26 people, mostly tourists, were killed.
TRF is an offshoot of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, the terrorist organisation which has been instrumental in carrying out terror attacks in India, including the Mumbai’s 26/11.
In Pahalgam, they singled out the tourists by religion and killed the Hindus.
The incident happened a week after Pakistani army chief Gen Asim Munir described Kashmir as the “jugular vein of Pakistan”.
“Our forefathers thought we are different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different and our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation,” he further said.
In the second and final part of the interview with Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com, national security analyst Nitin Gokhale, author of books like Securing India The Modi Way; R N Kao, Gentleman Spymaster; 1965, Turning The Tide among many others, says, “TRF is just a front which attacked tourists in Pahalgam. Actually, it is the Pakistani army which is responsible for Pahalgam terror attack."
If war breaks out, do you fear we will get trapped in a situation like Russia and Ukraine where the fighting goes on indefinitely? Is war a feasible option?
Pakistan cannot sustain a war with India for more than four days. They are in such dire straits. At best they can sustain war for one week. They don’t have friends. China cannot openly support them because USA will come hard on them. Right now, the prime minister of Pakistan has already stated that suspending the Indus Water Treaty is an act of war. So, in a way the India-Pakistan war is already on.
I saw a statement by the Lashkar spokesperson condemning the Pahalgam terror attack. Isn’t it surprising?
Even the Lashkar is surprised by the brutality and scale of massacre. Now they are sh*****g bricks because they know that everybody will go after them. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement in Bihar, and that too in English, is indicative of things to come.
What is the reason for the Pakistan army to maintain its inimical stance against India? Have they not got over the humiliating defeat in the 1971 war?
They have lost all wars against India. Pakistan army’s existence revolves around enmity with India. They get their budgets, support and motivating their people against India. If this ends then they (Pakistan people) will question why they need such a huge army for a bankrupt country. How can you support such a large military operation when the country is financially broke?
All these questions have started doing the rounds in Pakistan society. Gen Asim Munir’s intemperate statement last week was to shore up the confidence of Pakistani troops.
And to say that Kashmir is our jugular vein and we cannot let it go -- all these things are gone. Kashmir is no longer an issue between India and Pakistan. India has taken care of Kashmir by abrogating Article 370, and that hurts them. But General Munir continues to say this, and he continues to target India by killing hapless civilians in isolated places.
This is something India is ready to face. The Indian State and India’s capacity to take punches is enormous, as we have seen in the last 75 years.
On my visit to Kashmir last year I felt that common Kashmiris feels betrayed by Pakistan as they did nothing to help them post the abolition of Article 370. Young generation of Kashmiris feels that there is no future for them with Pakistan.
Exactly, the people of Kashmir no longer see Pakistan as a State coming to their rescue or help. No doubt that there is a section of population, like the local terrorists who were part of the Pahalgam terror operation. This will exist in Kashmir for another generation. One or two people (favouring Pakistan) will be there and that will happen. But the old feeling that Kashmir’s destiny lies with Pakistan or independent Kashmir is gone now.
Kashmiris have benefitted from being with India in terms of improved economic condition and financial aid. Post the Pahalgam terror attack, Kashmiris will be further angered against Pakistan as it is now the question of their livelihood. They have taken loans or mortgaged their properties to build new properties for hotels, tourist cars, shikaras and all such things. Where will they repay the loan that they have taken from banks if the business of tourism gets affected?
And who is responsible for this? It is the Pakistan army. TRF is just a front which attacked tourists in Pahalgam. Actually, it is the Pakistani army which is responsible for the Pahalgam terror attack.
Is it a positive sign that we see in Kashmir where, from mosques or for that matter even on the streets, we hear slogans like ‘Kashmir se awaaz aayi, Hindu-Muslim Bhai Bhai’? Because these were not slogans one heard in the 1990s when the entire population used to cry for Azaadi?
It is a positive sign and one cannot discount that. When it comes to the question of dal-roti, people keep aside their actions guided by religion. Ultimately, it is a matter of survival.
Religion cannot give roti or dal. Pakistan would have taken note of this point. They overplayed their hand this time in Kashmir.
The point about intelligence failure you made in your tweet, would you like to comment on it?
Let us make a distinction between intelligence failure and inability to join the dots.
They knew about this particular group lurking around for some time. They were trying to hunt them down.
Intelligence is a difficult game and you cannot spot specific intelligence. In my view, what was a little surprising was they did not anticipate that US Vice President J D Vance being in India would give them the opportunity to internationalise the Kashmir issue, that they would puncture this feeling that Kashmir is back to normal.
And there was incident 25 years ago in Chittisinghpura when Sikhs were massacred, this happened when US President Bill Clinton was visiting India (in March 2000).
Some presence of security forces (would have helped). I won’t call it intelligence failure but failure of anticipation and domain awareness.
Pakistan is right now on ventilator which is good for India. But what is the best case scenario for India vis-a-vis its neighbour?
The best situation for us is Pakistan gets punished and some action taken that hurts its army. It continues to wallow in its own misery -- political, international and financial.
I don’t believe this theory that a stable Pakistan is in India’s interest. No, it is not.
What about the disintegration of Pakistan?
If it happens it happens. I don’t know whether this will happen but it will continue to be a dysfunctional State.
Pakistan will be a State that is constantly on the verge of collapse but never collapses, which is okay with India.
As far as the disintegration of Pakistan is concerned, I don’t see it happening in that sense.