'It could be the Pakistan army's commercial interest, tactical or strategic interest or one of their leaders.'
'Even if you send a message that we have attempted to kill one of the Pakistani generals, that itself will serve the purpose.'
India has downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan post the Pahalgam terror attack on innocent tourists.
The TRF is an offshoot of the Lashkar-E-Tayiba, the Pakistan-based terrorist organisation which has been instrumental in organising terror attacks in India, including the infamous 26/11 Mumbai attacks.
This time the Laskhar crossed the red line by targeting innocent tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, in which 26 people were killed.
Worse was the fact they identified tourists by their religion and if they were found to be Hindu, shot dead.
This attack happened a week after Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, addressing an Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, stated that Kashmir was the ‘jugular vein of Pakistan’.
He further said, ““Our forefathers thought we are different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different and our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation.”
Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com spoke to Nitin Gokhale, national security analyst and author of books like Security India: They Modi Way; R N Kao, The General Spymaster; and 1965, Turning The Tide, among many others, about the terror attack, what went wrong, and India's options.
Are the actions the Government of India has taken so far against Pakistan good enough, or should they have done something more?
It is a good first step. I believe that a greater response is called for and that too a well-considered deliberate response is the need of the hour. We should wait.
The government is also aware of the anger and anguish that people have. They themselves don’t like what has happened because they have worked very hard to prevent something like this from happening. Yet it has happened and there will be consequences for Pakistan to suffer.
The suspension of Indus Water Treaty has never happened. This will hurt Pakistan’s fragile economy and will lead to a rise in anger against the Pakistan army in Pakistan. So this first step is a good step.
The government has also annulled the post of defence attaché in New Delhi and it is presumed they can never come back. This is a very major message in international diplomacy.
Does India have any military options against Pakistan?
Yes, we have and it is all on the table.
Obviously I don’t know when it will happen and how it will happen but yes, happen it will.
Not only has this government resolved to take the risk but there is also enough backing and anger among other nations who are stating that India should not hesitate to take any action against Pakistan. These nations are ready to back India.
We have seen US President Donald Trump supporting India, and so does Russian President Vladmir Putin.
India is in a stronger position internationally and it cannot take too long to take action. Now, it could be covert action which is deniable, or demonstrative action, or a combination of the two. But happen it will, as I said.
Earlier Pakistan's nuclear status prevented us from going in for a full-fledged war. Does this aspect not concern the Government of India anymore?
It used to. This bluff was called in 2019 when the Balakot strike happened.
Even presuming Pakistan takes nuclear action, they also know in their heart of hearts that they can be obliterated because India’s response will be massive.
Will the international community not intervene to prevent a war between India and Pakistan because both are nuclear States?
Nothing can be done if (nuclear) weapons are used. Because it is too late, as there will be no time left to intervene.
There will be enough international players that will be telling Pakistan, accept what you have done and the grace punishment, that is short of nuclear option.
Everybody is aware of what Pakistan is saying and what they say, they will not do. Nuclear weapons are for deterrence and not for use unless it falls into hands of a mad man or an irrational player.
I am not bothered by the nuclear option at this moment but I am bothered about what would be Pakistani General Asif Munir’s response when India takes kinetic action.
He is waiting for India to take immediate and reckless action. This will get him the opportunity to rally the nation behind him as his and the Pakistan army's credibility in Pakistan is at an all-time low.
Pakistan crossed the red line by asking tourists, are you Hindu? Can you read the kalma? If you cannot, we will kill you. This red line was never crossed by Pakistan.
Mind you, this will affect the livelihood of ordinary Kashmiris. For the next two years I don’t see any tourists going to Kashmir. We had 2.3 crore tourists travelling to Kashmir in 2024 and if it falls to nil in the coming months and next year, it will hurt Kashmiris.
Pakistan lost a larger plot in provoking India to take action against them. He (Gen Munir) wants India to take action so that he can rally Pakistan as a nation and tell Pakistanis that it is only the Pakistani army that is the custodian of Pakistan. That is General Asif Munir’s game plan.
Do you feel Gen Munir executed the Pahalgam massacre to win back popularity in his country?
Not popularity, but to shore up his dying image. He is not popular at all. He is facing a lot of criticism from everyone. This was his gamble.
You mentioned in your tweet, ‘Did the intemperate speech by Pakistan Army Chief last week, act as a dog whistle?' Was that speech noticed but its implications of fallout ignored?
It was probably not taken seriously. People thought the Pakistan army chief makes such statements to keep control of the nation. Therefore it was not taken so seriously.
A B Vajpayee once said it is easy to start a war but one does not know when the war ends and what shape it ends in. So it is better not to start a war. Do these lines make sense in today’s time? Can we get trapped in a war against Pakistan?
We are not going for war against Pakistan. If war starts it will be Pakistan that will start the war, not us. We are going to do punitive action, which is not the same as war. This can be controlled. It is called as escalation control in terms of war theory.
What kind of action do you see India taking against the Lashkar-e-Tayiba? Their offshoot The Resistance Front was behind the killing of innocent Indian tourists in Pahalgam.
Not Lashkar. I am actually looking for action against the Pakistan army.
Ultimately, the fountainhead of terrorism against India is the Pakistan army and not just Lashkar.
Lashkar is a proxy and nurtured group of the Pakistani army.
India this time will look into hurting the Pakistani army’s interest. It could be their commercial interest, tactical or strategic interest or one of their leaders. Just go for it.
Even if you send a message that we have attempted to kill one of the Pakistani generals, that itself will serve the purpose. This could be one of the options.
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