'The President's expectations shifted. The goal post moved and India didn't realize that the goal post had moved.'
A day before the meeting in Alaska between United States President Donald John Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dr Mukesh Aghi, President and CEO, US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, shared his optimism that relations between India and the US could be back on track within three to six months.
Speaking with Rediff US Special Contributing Correspondent Abhijit J Masih, Dr Aghi explained his reasons, reflected on what might have prompted Donald Trump's tough stance on India, and discussed his work fostering trade and stronger ties between the two nations.
The first of a two-part interview.
How damaged is the current state of India-US relations?
The relationship is fine. You don't have to look at relationships purely from a political term. You have to look at also from a perspective of people-to-people.
Look at it from a business to people that are still investing in India. The technology transfer that is still happening.
On the defense side, more joint exercises are happening between India and the US than any other country. So I don't think there is a downturn in the relationship.
Yes, there's an issue which President Trump has raised on tariff and I think it will sort out with time.
What went wrong? Was it the inability to reach a trade agreement the provocation for the President to unload on India?
Or was it India's refusal to give President Trump the credit for what he said were his efforts to orchestrate a ceasefire between India and Pakistan?
What do you think was the problem?
I think it's a combination of multiple factors. One is that by April India had a deal with the US and it went to the President and somehow India didn't close it.
Meanwhile, Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia came with very lucrative deals -- zero tariffs, open access to its market and they will invest more in the US, acquire more US energy or buy more US defense.
So the President said if that's the case then we should also ask India to do the same. So that's where things started turning.
And obviously the India-Pakistan issue too came up and India did not give credit to President Trump. That also irritated him.
And that's how the whole thing started moving. Russian oil is more of a leverage to put on Putin and India becomes kind of a collateral damage here.
How optimistic are you of the situation reverting to near normal and in what time frame?
Will it take longer for this rupture to be repaired especially with the USA's recent proximity to Pakistan?
It will correct its course because India has eleven times a larger economy than Pakistan. India's economic growth story is one of the fastest in the world for their size and US companies are gaining market access in India itself.
So it will take some time, but I think there will be course correction within the next 3 to 6 months.
What will India need to do to achieve a trade treaty with the US? Where do you see breakthroughs being achieved?
One is if the Putin-Trump meeting goes well, that's gonna help. Second is India lowering its consumption and buying of Russian oil, that's gonna help quite a bit.
And then India announcing the trade deal to be a trillion dollar trade deal between two countries that's gonna explain things.
It's multiple factors which will bring it back to track.
From what you have heard and understood, what are the mistakes India and the US made during the negotiations?
There was a report that the Indians thought they were close to an agreement when in fact they misunderstood the signs emitted from the American side?
I don't think it's the issue of mistakes. The issue is that the President's expectations shifted. The goal post moved and India didn't realize that the goal post had moved.
And India could not, as a democratic country, say it will spend 500 billion dollars investment in the United States.
The business people had to do that. Then domestic politics also plays a big role because you don't want to be bending down to another nation's will, which is gonna cost you.
So it is a combination of multiple things which drew it in the opposite direction.
How would you explain the Trump administration's tilt towards Pakistan? What's the lure?
I think of multiple factors. One is that Pakistan agreed to open up the market on crypto and investments of billion dollars. Second is they said we have oil in Balochistan and let the US companies come and grab that.
And the third is that they nominated the President for a Nobel Peace Prize, so that also helped.
And the final thing is they have a much larger group of lobbyists pitching for Pakistan as compared to India, so that made a big difference.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff