'If the NDA returns with the BJP substantially ahead of the JD-U, a BJP CM bid becomes plausible; if the gap is narrow or JD-U holds pivotal seats, continuity with Nitish is the lower-risk option.'
"The BJP's broadened base improves its bargaining power, but replacement hinges on how decisive that growth is on polling day, and whether the coalition can afford to disturb a balance that currently works," says Dr Vignesh Karthik KR, postdoctoral research fellow in Indian and Indonesian politics at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies, Leiden.
"Some tension over seat-sharing between the Congress and RJD is natural, but not destabilising. This is an alliance of necessity rather than sentiment," he says in the concluding part of his interview to Rediff's Archana Masih on the caste equation, Nitish Kumar's importance to NDA continuity and factors driving the Bihar election.
Caste remains a pivotal factor in a Bihar election, just like in many other states in India -- however, over the past few years, have caste and social coalitions begun to take a secondary role to larger, forward looking and aspirational themes like development, employment, better connectivity etc?
I wouldn't see this as a smaller–larger binary. The Indian subcontinent has one of the most enduring systems of hierarchised societies in the form of the caste system, which continues to shape growth, welfare, and aspiration in unequal ways.
As Dr B R Ambedkar argued, economic equality or growth is impossible without social equality. Nancy Fraser too reminds us that genuine justice requires recognition, redistribution, and representation.
The first step toward that is organising people within their lived identities so that caste groups act as interest groups capable of negotiating their welfare and empowerment. Such mobilisation constitutes a necessary precondition for the emergence of a supra-local civic identity anchored in national consciousness.
Bihar's story has been one of dignity without commensurate development as observed by Jeffrey Witsoe. But that politics of dignity has had real value. Lalu Prasad Yadav's government, for instance, introduced menstrual leave for working women in the 1990s, long before most 'developed' states even chose to consider it.
A new wave of development is imperative, but it must build on that earlier politics of recognition rather than replace it.
With the BJP broadening its base in Bihar among different social groups and communities, is this the last election that it will play second fiddle to Nitish Kumar? Will Nitish Kumar be replaced as CM by a BJP candidate if the NDA returns to power?
It's premature to say this will be the last time the BJP plays second fiddle to Nitish Kumar.
Two things decide that: Seat arithmetic and alliance manageability. Where the BJP grows by consolidating upper castes while peeling off 'left-out' OBC/SC segments, it tends to renegotiate power with regional partners; over time, overlap in support bases erodes the junior ally and invites a leadership push; we have seen this logic play out with other regional partners.
That said, Bihar is not a straightforward template. Though frail and facing diminished popularity at the moment, Nitish Kumar still presides over a deeply entrenched administrative network and a governance brand from which the BJP continues to draw electoral benefit.
Abruptly replacing him could unsettle the coalition's delicate balance and alienate segments of their shared voter base.
The comparative lesson from state politics is that when a national party's strategy collides with strong regional common sense, alliances remain instrumental, not 'natural', and leadership changes are attempted only when numbers clearly allow it without backlash.
If the NDA returns with the BJP substantially ahead of the JD-U, a BJP CM bid becomes plausible; if the gap is narrow or JD-U holds pivotal seats, continuity with Nitish is the lower-risk option.
In short, the BJP's broadened base improves its bargaining power, but replacement hinges on how decisive that growth is on polling day, and whether the coalition can afford to disturb a balance that currently works.
What new cards does the RJD have this time around?
The RJD's strategy this time blends continuity with course correction, retaining its social justice base among backward castes and minorities while presenting Tejashwi Yadav as a pragmatic administrator concerned with jobs, governance, and predictability.
The party's effort is to reassure older voters of continuity while appealing to younger ones with credibility and delivery.
What effect is the Congress' Voter Adhikar Yatra have in terms of getting votes for the Mahagathbandan? Or has this led to tension between the Congress and RJD with the former wanting a larger share of seats?
How do you see the relations between the different parties that constitute the Mahagathbandan?
The Voter Adhikar Yatra has revived the INDIA bloc's coordination after months of drift. By drawing attention to alleged 'vote chori' and linking voter deletions to welfare exclusions, it has generated anxiety that may work to the alliance's advantage among poorer and marginalised voters.
Yet, the follow-through at the booth level remains uneven; overstretched local agents have not matched the yatra's visibility.
Some tension over seat-sharing between the Congress and RJD is natural, but not destabilising. This is an alliance of necessity rather than sentiment.
Its real test will be whether the performative unity of the yatra can be converted into disciplined, booth-level persuasion, something Bihar's politics still rewards.
What impact is Prashant Kishor going to have? He has said if he gets less than 125 seats, he will consider this a failure. Is this just grandstanding or does it have basis in reality?
Kishor's claim of crossing 125 seats is more theatrical than statistical. It signals confidence, not calculation. Yet his presence is not without consequence.
Jan Suraaj has travelled deep into Bihar's social geography, and his padyatra has given visibility in districts where new parties usually remain invisible.
He has tapped into a mood of fatigue with established players and positioned himself as the technocratic outsider promising clean, efficient governance.
The 2024 by-poll numbers show disruption, not dominance, enough to mark its presence, not necessarily outcomes. His candidature plans, fielding a large share of EBC and minority candidates, could nibble at both JD-U and RJD bases, while drawing aspirational upper caste youth from the BJP.
In that sense, his real impact lies in re-arranging the field rather than winning it. The walk has made him visible; converting visibility into trust is the harder journey ahead.
How do you explain his appeal to younger Biharis?
Kishor's appeal to younger Biharis rests on aspiration as much as alienation. He speaks the language of opportunity, professionalism, and reform to a generation that has grown up seeing migration as the most probable route to mobility.
His biography of a small-town, upper-caste boy who made it to the UN and national politics, mirrors the story many youths wish to tell about themselves.
He also claims to stand above caste and ideology, offering a politics of efficiency rather than patronage. For educated, half-politicised yet disenchanted voters, that makes him appear modern, self-made and persuasive.
Yet this appeal is more aspirational than organisational. Young voters admire the walker who talks of education, livelihood, and change; whether they will line up to vote for him is another matter.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff