'This outcome is thoroughly unexpected.'
'I travelled extensively across villages, engaged in detailed discussions with residents, and consulted with party workers who had been canvassing from village to village, from one location to another, seeking grassroots feedback.'
'Not a single interlocutor suggested that there would be an NDA wave of this magnitude.'
The National Democratic Alliance seems to be headed for a stunning landslide victory in the Bihar assembly elections, crossing the 200 seat mark and reducing the Mahagathbandhan to a mere 30 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has emerged as the largest single party with substantial leads in 94 seats -- the BJP had won 74 in the 2020 assembly election -- surpassing its ally the Janata Dal-United which almost doubled its 2020 tally of just 43 seats won in 2020 to about solid leads in 84 seats as of 4.30 pm in the 2025 election.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which had emerged as the single largest party in 2020 with 75 seats, seems to be heading for a whitewash with leads in only 25 seats.
The interim results represent an unprecedented decimation of the Opposition in a state renowned for its politically astute electorate and historically fractured verdicts.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, the principal constituents of the Mahagathbandhan, have been virtually wiped out, raising questions about the dramatic divergence between ground sentiment and electoral outcomes.
This electoral tsunami has left political analysts like Professor D M Diwakar bewildered, particularly given reports of anti-incumbency sentiment and poorly attended rallies during the campaign period.
In a two-part interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff, Professor Diwakar, Director, Development Research Institute in Madhubani, expresses profound scepticism about the NDA's landslide victory, describing the results as "unbelievable", "unprecedented" and "beyond explanation" given his extensive field observations during the campaign.
How credible do you find these results that are currently being displayed? The NDA has crossed 200 seats while the Mahagathbandhan has been reduced to less than 30 seats.
This outcome is thoroughly unexpected. I did not observe any indication of such a wave during my extensive fieldwork.
I travelled extensively across villages, engaged in detailed discussions with residents, and consulted with party workers who had been canvassing from village to village, from one location to another, seeking grassroots feedback. Not a single interlocutor suggested that there would be an NDA wave of this magnitude.
While people were not particularly vocal against the Janata Dal-United, they were remarkably critical of the Bharatiya Janata Party. What we now observe is that the JD-U has performed substantially better than anticipated.
But the BJP has emerged as the largest single party with leads in 94 seats compared to the JD-U's 84 seats...
The manner in which they (the BJP) have orchestrated the entire electoral campaign and navigated the electoral process has been extraordinary. I must say, it would have been more comprehensible had they contested all 243 seats independently.
This result is simply unbelievable, particularly in Bihar where the electorate is extraordinarily politically conscious and has never been known to deliver such a one-sided mandate.
This election cycle was especially perplexing because there was no discernible atmosphere suggesting such an outcome.
Consider this: Even the deputy chief minister was assaulted in his own village. He was physically confronted, insulted, and manhandled.
Who precisely was subjected to this treatment?
Vijay Kumar Sinha, the deputy chief minister, was insulted and physically confronted in his own village by the village council. He was prevented from conducting election campaigning in his own constituency.
This was the prevailing atmosphere. There were numerous incidents where BJP candidates were forcibly ejected from public meetings. So much so that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rallies were sparsely attended, with vacant chairs visible in the meeting grounds. Journalists documented the empty seating arrangements while the prime minister delivered his address. This was the scenario on the ground.
Conversely, if you examine the attendance at rallies addressed by Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav, they were consistently well-attended, and audiences responded enthusiastically, expressing confidence that the Mahagathbandhan would form the government.
Yet the Mahagathbandhan has failed catastrophically. What explains this dramatic reversal?
I am withholding definitive judgement because we have completed only 11 or 12 rounds of counting out of a total of 28 rounds. The margins in several constituencies remain extremely narrow -- sometimes merely 200, 400, or 500 votes. I do not anticipate that the final tally will precisely mirror these preliminary figures.
Let us await the conclusion of the counting process; the situation may not ultimately prove quite so dire for the Opposition. Nevertheless, I remain unable to comprehend how such a dramatic turnaround could have occurred in favour of the BJP.
It is genuinely unbelievable, unprecedented and defies rational explanation.
You correctly observe that we are midway through counting. However, if these results hold, what would constitute a plausible explanation for a landslide NDA victory? Can you identify two or three determining factors?
I can identify two crucial factors. Firstly, when Nitish Kumar was not designated as the chief ministerial candidate initially, he began operating independently and consolidating his own political strength.
He achieved this through various welfare schemes, including the provision of Rs 10,000 to women -- a scheme supported by the central government. Various women welfare programmes were substantially funded and enhanced. Old-age pensions were dramatically increased from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 monthly.
Additionally, there were numerous other initiatives: Salaries for school cooks were increased, and remuneration for Anganwadi workers was enhanced.
All these measures were implemented merely two months prior to the election, and they could have significantly altered public perception towards Nitish Kumar.
Since Nitish Kumar and the BJP are electoral allies, perhaps the goodwill generated for Nitish Kumar was transferred to the BJP as well. Otherwise, public sentiment towards the BJP was decidedly unfavourable.