'What we are witnessing is not a freak incidence or a freak occurrence, but a new climate reality where warming oceans, monsoon variability and local geography are combining to produce extreme events.'
"What we are witnessing is not a freak incidence or a freak occurrence, but a new climate reality where warming oceans, monsoon variability and local geography are combining to produce extreme events," says Dr Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at the Indian School of Business.
An experienced researcher and academic, Professor Prakash's work primarily focuses on water, climate change and urban resilience.
"The Himalayas are definitely at the centre of this crisis because they are a climate sensitive hotspot. The ongoing shift from moderate rain to cloudburst to deluge reflects how global warming is redirecting the monsoon script with devastating consequences for the people, fragile ecosystems, and the community," Professor Prakash tells Rediff's Archana Masih.
What are the reasons for such heavy rainfall in Himachal, J&K and Uttarakhand this year?
The heavy rainfall in the Himalayan states is strongly linked to a combination of climate changing monsoon dynamics.
A warming atmosphere is holding more moisture, resulting in sudden and intense downpour rather than steady rain which is a major issue in the Himalayan states.
Secondly, the Western disturbances are becoming wetter due to the warming of the Arabian Sea and are colliding with the monsoon winds and amplifying the precipitation.
Thirdly, local topography further traps the clouds and intensifies the rainfall.
So, there are multiple factors that have created a complex situation. Climate change definitely has a strong influence in this process.
Climate change attribution studies have also shown that there will be a rise in the frequency of extreme weather events across North India.
The IPCC Report has also predicted a wetter future.
What we are witnessing is not a freak incidence or a freak occurrence, but a new climate reality where warming oceans, monsoon variability and local geography are combining to produce extreme events.
The Himalayas are definitely at the centre of this crisis because they are climate sensitive hotspot.
The ongoing shift from moderate rain to cloudburst to deluge reflects how global warming is redirecting the monsoon script with devastating consequences for the people, fragile ecosystems, and the community.
Jammu region recorded 380 mm of rainfall in a single day, highest for a 24-hour period since 1910 -- then a cloudburst occurred in Chisoti, and a landslide in Vaishnodevi -- are instances such as these attributable to changing of weather patterns or are there several other factors?
Events like 380 millimetre rainfall in a single day, the Chisoti cloudburst, and landslide at Vaishnodevi are symptomatic of the changing weather pattern as I explained before, and is driven by climate change.
While intense rain and landslides have always occurred in the Himalayas, the frequency, scale and unpredictability over the last couple of years has actually been worsening.
This is also what our climate models are predicting: A warmer atmosphere that supercharges rainfall events, turning them into devastating cloudbursts.
Attributing these disasters solely to climate change overlooks other factors. For example, poor land use practises, rampant deforestation, unregulated constructions on fragile landscape and blocked drainage systems which actually magnifies the impact of the extreme weather event.
So what could have remained a heavy downfall instead transforms into a tragedy when natural buffers like forests, wetlands and the river channels are compromised.
So, yes, climate change is a trigger, but if you disregard the ecological limits of the space, especially in Himalayan regions, it amplifies and turns the weather event into full-blown disaster with a massive loss of lives, livelihood and infrastructure.
Homes, bridges, roads, vehicles and people have been washed away -- what are some urgent measures that need to be taken to prevent nature's fury as this?
This is a very good question, though, very difficult to answer.
To prevent devastation from extreme rainfall, India must adopt a multi-pronged approach.
Strengthen resilience and restore ecosystems.
Urgently enforce strict zoning laws in the Himalayas and stop construction in riverbeds, flood pains, and landslide prone zones.
Strengthen early warning systems and committee preparedness which is crucial to ensure timely alerts to reach the last mile, enabling timely evacuations.
Restoration of the natural buffers, especially forest wetlands and traditional water bodies that regulate rainfall.
Infrastructure must shift from hard engineering, like dams and highways to a climate resistant design that respects the ecological flow.
Urban planning in hill towns must focus on drainage systems, slope stabilisation and green cover protection.
Additionally, rapid response and rescue capacities at the district level must be scaled up.
Unless development is aligned with ecological limits, extreme rainfall will continue to escalate into devastating disasters.
Nature's fury cannot be prevented, but its impact can be minimised by a foresight in preparedness which is lacking in today's planning.
How has large-scale infrastructure development in the mountains contributed to such disasters?
The Himalayan ecosystem is extremely fragile. Rapid infrastructure development has pushed it to the brink.
Highways, tunnels, dams, and hydel power projects often cut into steep slopes and makes them prone to landslide during heavy rainfall.
Blasting, excavation and tree felling removes the natural anchors that holds the soil together.
Unregulated construction in hill towns also blocks the drainage system and causes rainwater to go down violently.
River beds are also ingressed upon which reduces the capacity to absorb excess flow and amplifies flash floods.
Poorly planned roads and buildings block natural drainage, forcing water to accumulate until it bursts through like a destructive force.
In short, it is not the rain alone that causes a disaster, but the way in which we have altered the landscape.
Unless infrastructure is designed with understanding of ecological sensitivity, incorporating slope stabilisation, green engineering and strict environmental assessment, mountains will keep collapsing under pressure of climate change and construction.
What are some of the worrying ecological signals that serve as a warning?
The Himalayas are sending clear distress signals that the system is under stress. We would be fools not to catch it.
These signals collectively are a warning that the carrying capacity of the Himalayas is being breached.
Unless we listen to these alarms and realign development with ecological balance, future disasters will only intensify.
The stress signals are already there. We are not catching them and will have to pay the price for it.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff