Left to its machinations, the BJP would have loved to cut Nitish down to size, but it can't afford to do so as the JD-U is in alliance with the BJP at the Centre, and cannot form a government on its own in Bihar.
For now, both need each other: Nitish for legitimacy, the BJP for numbers, points out Ramesh Menon.
There is electricity in the air in Bihar. The kind that ignites passion, hope, and doubt. No one is sure who will win. Whoever wins might win by a whisker.
Like the results in 2020, when there was a difference of just 12,000 votes between the winning coalition and the loser.
Nearly twenty years of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's rule have led to the construction of better roads and bridges, and have given a boost to the real estate industry.
Additionally, generous cash donations to women and disadvantaged sections of society have created a solid voter base.
In his earlier avatar, Nitish had given free cycles to girls so that they could easily ride to school. It was an innovative idea that worked.
Thousands of girls have attended school and completed their education, though school standards leave much to be desired.
The promise of a 'double-engine sarkar' continuing in the state held out the carrot to the populace that funds will always be available from the Centre to help the state grow and evolve.
There is also more light on the roads, towns, and in villages as electricity coverage spreads.
However, trains carrying hopeful migrants out of Bihar are full every single day. Over 30 million Biharis work in numerous towns and villages of India, as there are no jobs back home. Migration is a serious issue.
For Nitish, 74, the assembly elections are a do-or-die battle. Clearly, he wants to cling to the post.
He managed to stay in power all these years as he kept changing loyalties shrewdly to stay relevant and powerful.
The timing was uncanny -- barely six hours before the Election Commission announced the poll schedule, he got his government to quickly transfer into the accounts of 2.1 million women a generous sum of Rs 10,000 each, saying it was seed money to start any enterprise they wanted to generate extra revenue.
This endearing move was for women enrolled in the Manila Rojgar Yojana scheme, designed to promote women's self-help groups and others with economic empowerment.
It starts with an initial investment of Rs 10,000 and can then be increased to a maximum of Rs 200,000 based on the beneficiary's performance.
This initiative was started by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in September, obviously with an eye on elections, where Rs 10,000 were transferred to the bank accounts of 7,500,000 women.
These beneficiaries will vote for the National Democratic Alliance, hoping for more freebies once it is in power.
While the NDA calls it a welfare scheme to empower women, others see it as luring the voter.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which leads the NDA that includes Nitish's Janata Dal-United, and other small parties, is also desperate to win Bihar, as elections to West Bengal and Assam are a few months away.
Left to its machinations, the BJP would have loved to cut Nitish down to size as it has done with allies in the last decade, but it cannot afford to do so as the JD-U is in alliance with the BJP at the Centre, and cannot form a government on its own in Bihar.
For now, both need each other: Nitish for legitimacy, the BJP for numbers.
Nitish has been in the chief minister's chair for 20 years now, but he is not ready to give space to another leader. He managed to get the top post despite having fewer number of seats than the BJP in the 2020 election.
The BJP was helpless as Nitish would have otherwise joined another coalition, formed the government, and headed it. He has changed sides numerous times depending on which side the wind blows.
Despite his age, he cannot be ignored. He has an endearing voter base comprising those from the economically backward castes and women.
What he now has to battle is the increasing scepticism among young voters over unemployment, poverty, and migration.
Only about 5 per cent of Bihar's working-age population holds regular employment, a stunningly low figure that is worrying.
The NDA's new schemes worth Rs 62,000 crore are expected to ease the unemployment situation, voters are being told.
There are 1.4 million new voters this time, and they yearn for change as they have aspirations. There are 1.7 million voters aged between the ages of 18 to 29 in Bihar.
Will Nitish Kumar be able to win them over or will he lose them to the Opposition is the moot question.
A rough estimate says there are around 70,000 young voters in every constituency.
In 2020, the BJP secured 42.6 per cent votes while the Rashtriya Janata Dal, headed by Tejashwi Yadav, got around 39 per cent.
The anti-incumbency factor may get obliterated for the NDA alliance due to the numerous doles granted on the eve of elections.
The NDA's plank is a continuation of the 'double engine sarkar', assuring voters that the centre's funds will always be available for Bihar.
The NDA offers 125 MW of free electricity, social security pensions being raised from a measly Rs 400 to Rs 1,000 per month, and allowances for one million Jeevikas, which are basically self-help groups of women, 120,000 Anganwadi workers, and 95,000 ASHA workers.
No wonder more women than men turn out to vote in Bihar in election after election.
The contest will mainly be between the NDA alliance of the BJP, JD-U and the Lok Janshakti Party, and the Mahagatbandhan alliance of the RJD, the Congress, and Left parties.
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who narrowly lost the opportunity to form a government in 2020, has promised a job to every household.
He has promised an Economically Backward Class Atrocities Prevention Act, apart from raising the EBC quota in local bodies from 20 to 30 per cent.
Also, residential plots or land grants for the landless households belonged to the disadvantaged classes.
Whether voters believe these promises or dismiss them as election rhetoric will decide the outcome.
Tejashwi has been campaigning with Rahul Gandhi vigorously, drawing huge crowds. The Congress is hoping to attract some of the backward class votes.
A new player this time is political strategist Prashant Kishor, who, with his Jan Suraaj Party, is trying to create a new base of supporters who want to get away from caste, communal and dynastic politics.
His attractive agenda of fighting poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, distress migration, and stagnant growth has created quite a stir.
He strongly advocates the importance of local governance and changing the image of Bihar. Very tall order, but very doable.
The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) promises proportionate representation for women in tickets and party posts, Rs 2,000 a month to all those above 60, widows, and the specially-abled.
He wants to lift the liquor ban as it has failed.
He may not win many seats in a state that has for seven decades voted on caste and communal lines, but he has emerged as a popular figure, igniting a debate about what the future of Bihar should be.
For the last two years, he has travelled all over the state addressing curious rallies. However, he lacks the organisational army that the BJP and RJD have.
PK, as he is known, will make a mark in the complex caste-ridden politics of Bihar.
His foot marches across Bihar have been remarkable as it has drawn huge crowds. Seemingly, there is a groundswell of support.
His speeches are rooted in truths on the ground; he uses logic, empirical data, and live anecdotes to touch a raw nerve.
He has been critical of all parties that have been in power. There is a certain freshness he has brought into the otherwise jaded campaign.
The JSP is contesting all 243 seats, the only party to have the courage to do so.
PK hopes that 25 per cent of the electorate that did not turn up to vote in 2020 will back his party.
He is hoping to attract educated voters. He is not targeting to sweep the elections as it is impossible in the current political culture and scenario.
He is trying to lay the foundation of a new political culture in a caste- and community-ridden state.
Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) can garner around 10.26 per cent of the vote share. The NDA is happy that he has joined its coalition as it realises that it is crucial in the neck-to-neck race.
Typically, as in every Indian election, mainline politicians are not looking at long-term growth or real change; they are concerned about the next election.
Voters know that and therefore do not vote, as they are battling scepticism.
The huge doles that are being promised will be financially ruinous. No one is even asking where all this money will come from in a debt-ridden state.
Voters are demanding more and more freebies as they see that as the only way to improve their life situation.
Anyway, they see institutions like schools and hospitals collapse, and there is little light at the end of the tunnel.
Bihar will vote again, hoping for change, but knowing how little ever changes.
The promises will pour in, the doles will flow, but the trains out of Bihar still leave packed.
The real victory will come only when Biharis stop leaving home to carve a future.
Ramesh Menon is an author, award-winning journalist, educator, documentary filmmaker, and corporate trainer. He authored Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff