Will Vijay Be Tamil Nadu's Showstopper?

Whether he comes to power or not, both his admirers and opponents agree on one thing -- Vijay may well turn out to be the 'X factor'.

For over 30 years, actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar -- better known as Vijay -- has been depicting underdogs who emerge victorious on screen.

Now, in the heavily bipolar politics of Tamil Nadu, he appears to be on a mission to replicate a similar disruption: The victory of his political startup Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in Thursday's assembly polls.

For the first time in decades, the state is witnessing a credible third force in the electoral fray, a role that the Bharatiya Janata Party, actor-politician Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), or the late actor 'Captain' Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) have failed to effectively perform.

In the 2026 polls, whether he comes to power or not, both his admirers and opponents agree on one thing -- Vijay may well turn out to be the 'X factor'.

'He will have an impact on the election. To what extent has got to be seen, and whose vote he is going to take away is the question,' Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the media.

She added that a lot will depend on how he is going to take away women supporters of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

"Women in Tamil Nadu politics have a very, very powerful voice... Women have a powerful decision-making role," she added.

This time, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is being led by DMK's main rival, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), with the BJP playing second fiddle to the Dravidian party.

Sitharaman's argument stands as women constitute 51 per cent of the electorate.

Out of the total 56.7 million voters, around 27.7 million are men, while women come to around 29 million, and the third gender constitutes 7,617 voters.

Youth vote surge

In addition to this, a large share of first-time and young voters are also likely to support Vijay's party.

"These crowds come organically to see him, unlike traditional political rallies in Tamil Nadu. He is mainly attracting youth and women voters," a senior political analyst from the state said.

Based on Election Commission data, there are around 1.25 million first-time voters in the age group of 18-19 years, and another 10.5 million voters or 18.5 per cent of the total electorate in the age group of 20-29 years.

This takes the total share of those aged below 30 to around 21 per cent. Vijay's party is banking on a large share of these voters.

"As per our internal estimates, we may get 50 per cent of the 29 million women voters. Another advantage factor is that 60 per cent of voters are below 40 years, who can connect well with the persona of the actor," TVK leader Felix Gerald told Business Standard.

Gerald claims that his party's internal survey indicates that it will garner over 40 per cent votes in around 150 of the total 234 assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu.

Multiple surveys give a clear advantage to the DMK, with the party's share expected to go well above 40 per cent this time.

But there are also surveys that predict a close fight between the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance and the NDA.

Meanwhile, many surveys expect TVK to win a vote share of 10 to 20 per cent; a few predict an upper hand to the NDA too.

DMK vs NDA battle

A major advantage for the ruling umbrella alliance is its social sector schemes that attract rural votes.

This includes the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (women's monthly cash support), free bus travel for women, and breakfast programmes in schools.

The alliance also includes the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Communist Party of India (CPI), and CPI (Marxist), with the total number of parties exceeding 20.

The DMK is contesting in 165 seats as part of this alliance, targeting around 30 per cent of the voters.

"Earlier they used to say that our vote share will be only 2 per cent; at least it has increased tenfold to 20 per cent now. We are going to come to power," Gerald said.

However, this may not be an easy ride for the TVK, as many believe that the wave may just be in urban areas.

Take the case of the two constituencies in which Vijay himself is contesting -- Perambur in Chennai and Tiruchirappalli (East) in central Tamil Nadu.

In the 2021 assembly polls, the DMK's R D Sekar won by a thumping majority of 53 per cent in Perambur, despite the MNM getting almost 9 per cent votes.

This time, the MNM is a part of the intelligently-stitched DMK alliance, which also includes the DMDK, now led by Vijayakanth's wife Premalatha.

In Tiruchirappalli (East), the DMK's Inigo S Irudayaraj won with around 56 per cent of the votes. The MNM attracted around 7 per cent votes here as well.

In both constituencies, the trade union base of the Communist parties and the DMK, caste dynamics, and the MNM are expected to tilt the scales in favour of the ruling alliance.

It may, therefore, not be an easy ride for Vijay, his larger-than-life persona notwithstanding.

Some political pundits believe two factors might weigh on Vijay's electoral prospects: The Karur stampede last year, where over 40 lives were lost at one of his public meetings, and the recent controversy over his wife Sangeetha Sornalingam filing for divorce after 27 years of marriage.

According to Vijay, the divorce case will have no impact on his political career. The TVK is not behind when it comes to offering sops for voters.

While the AIADMK has made a slew of promises to women, like free refrigerators, LPG cylinders, and a monthly assistance of Rs2,000, the ruling DMK has promised a Rs 8,000 coupon to all 'non-income tax paying' homemakers to buy any electronic home appliance of their choice from the nearest stores.

Vijay has gone one step further by announcing 8 grams (1 pavan) of gold along with a silk saree to women from low-income families for marriage.

"We will ensure that this money will be generated from the money saved through a corruption-free government," Gerald said.

As the political battle enters the final lap, Vijay may well emerge as the showstopper, creating surprises as an untested political commodity -- no matter who comes to power.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff