'BJP Will Win A Few Seats In Kerala'

'The BJP is pouring in money so that only BJP candidates are visible everywhere.'
'If the Congress does not win this time, its survival itself will be a problem...'

Unlike in many other states, any election, whether it is the local body, assembly or the Lok Sabha, is like a festival in Kerala(m).

Every single person participates in the festival, from children who are not yet eligible to vote, to the very elderly.

And every Kerala(m)ite is a political commentator, analyst and an expert who is ready to express their expert opinion to anyone who is willing to listen.

Everybody is very well aware of the credentials of all (yes, all) the candidates too.

On the other hand, where I live (Chennai), majority of the people are not even aware of the name of the sitting MLA or MP, and they generally vote for the party symbol rather than the candidate.

The moment I was inside the car, Rakesh, a booth level Congress party worker who has always been picking me up, started talking about how his party is going to perform in the assembly election.

Whether it is election time or not, our conversations have always been about the political scene in Kerala.

"It is going to be a tough fight this time, but we will win. The problem is, there is no money with the Congress. On the other hand, both the Communists and the BJP have loads of money.

"Just look at the flex boards and posters. The BJP is pouring in money so that only BJP candidates are visible everywhere. If the Congress does not win this time, its survival itself will be a problem..."

What he said was true, all I could see were the posters of the BJP candidates with Narendra Modi's face prominently in all of them.

Do the leaders in the Congress party still fight among themselves? I asked him.

"Though V D Satheesan is trying to project an image of unity, party workers and even people of Kerala know that all the senior leaders carry the ambition of becoming the chief minister. Let them win the election first, then talk about chief ministership.

"Satheesan is the only person who is talking about the need to win the election. I am angry with the state leadership for not utilising the local MP Shashi Tharoor wisely.

"He is extremely popular with very young voters. He is their hero. They should use him to woo first time voters."

Is the BJP gaining ground in Thiruvananthapuram, now that they have captured the corporation?

"The BJP is a communal party, but Hindus here are leaning towards the BJP. So many Hindus I know have become BJP supporters now. It can win at least a couple of seats in Trivandrum. Capturing the Trivandrum corporation was the biggest victory they had in Kerala..."

Obviously, he sounded very unhappy.

The constituency in which my mother is going to vote is Vattiyoorkavu, one of the seven constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram constituency.

The CPI-M's V K Prashanth is the sitting MLA. It is a huge flex board of Prashanth at the entrance of the colony Amma lives that welcomed me!

It said he spent a huge amount to repair the roads inside the colony.

The truth is the road that was in tatters every time I visited was repaired just two weeks before the election!

Unlike in Chennai, in Kerala (m) all the candidates make it a point to visit each household and ask for votes.

The first to visit Amma was K Muraleedharan of the Congress. He is the son of former chief minister K Karunakaran, universally known as 'leader'.

Muraleedharan is no 'leader' but he has carved a dependable image for the party over the years. He was elected from Vatiiyoorkavu twice, in 2011 and 2016.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, he was sent to Vadakara in the northern part of Kerala, and he won from there as an MP.

But in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, he was moved to Thrissur, and he lost to the BJP's Suresh Gopi.

In Thiruvananthapuram, especially in Vattiyoorkavu he has a very good image as an accessible politician who makes it a point to visit whenever there is a death in a family.

On the other hand, the CPI-M's young politician Prashanth has the image of an active political leader.

The BJP has fielded retired DGP R Sreelekha who has won as a councillor in the recent local body election.

It was past 7 in the evening when a few Congressmen arrived to find out whether Amma was at home as 'Murali Sir' was coming for canvassing.

After a few minutes, Muraleedharan walked in with a few party members. Amma was sitting inside while I stood in the verandah to welcome the candidate.

When he entered, I introduced myself as Amma's daughter and told him, "I had called you for an interview, but you refused."

I knew the best time to tell a politician what you really felt was during the election. And they smile even when they are criticised.

Not knowing how to react, he gave a sheepish smile and went inside. He bowed in front of Amma and asked for her support. He turned and asked me, "Where is your vote?"

I said, in Chennai. I cheekily added, "Does that mean you will not give me an interview?"

Another sheepish smile and off he went.

The local councillor came back with a big smile on her face and told me, when he becomes the chief minister, you will get the first interview!

That was news to me. He was not in the long list of Congress leaders in contention to be the chief minister if the UDF wins.

"One more contender?" I asked. She was gone by then!

After two days Prashanth, the sitting MLA, paid his visit. We were having breakfast. He came straight inside, touched Amma's feet and asked for her blessing.

Amma didn't immediately recognise him.

"Sorry, I didn't recognise you first."

"I am the sitting MLA, Prashanth. I have been walking in the sun for many days canvassing for votes. That's why I have lost colour. Amma, please do support me and vote for me."

Then he looked at my brother and I and asked, "Where are your votes?" "Not here," we said. He then asked us to tell our friends in the city to vote for him.

Lavanya, the house help, came out of the kitchen to see the commotion in the dining room.

She has not gone to college but well aware of the political situation in Kerala, and has an opinion on every party.

She told me after he left, "I used to support this party once as it was formed for people like us. It is no longer our party. It supports only those who have money.

"I don't know who to vote for this time. I don't like the BJP as it spreads hatred. When educated and intelligent people like Sreelekha joined the BJP, I am confused.

"Am I wrong about the party? I don't know."

Sreelekha came in the evening to seek Amma's blessings. She touched her feet, hugged and kissed her.

It was quite obvious Amma was enjoying her status as a super senior citizen from whom candidates seek not just votes but blessings too!

On my way back to the airport, I listened to Anto's expert opinion on the election scenario.

"We were all the supporters of the Communist party once upon a time. I am worried now. Not just my children but children of many other former Communists support the BJP.

"Modi is their hero. My son tells me, I am ignorant about today's politics. One thing is certain, the BJP will win a few seats this time.

"I think the UDF will win but the victory margin will be very small. It will be a tough fight. With their Congress-mukt Bharat agenda, I am certain the BJP will play along with the LDF to defeat the UDF.

"That's another thing I am worried about..."

When people like Anto are around, why do we need political analysts?

Back in Chennai, I ask the taxi driver, how is the election scene here? Who has the advantage?

"Who has the time to think about politics, Madam? My only concern is to get a gas cylinder so that we can cook food at home. That's my biggest worry now, not who wins the election..."

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff