SP likely to oust Maya; better result for Cong: UP poll survey

Mayawati's eventful tenure in Uttar Pradesh seems to be heading for a change in the upcoming assembly elections, expected to be held in February-March next year.

In the first opinion poll in the state, conducted by STAR News-Nielsen, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is emerging as the single largest party ahead of Bahujan Samaj Party.

The survey also predicts a revival of sorts for the Congress party while the Bharatiya Janata Party is finishing fourth.

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STAR News-Nielsen survey, conducted in 202 constituencies of UP in November, is predicting 117 seats for BSP in the 403-member house, a massive drop from their 2007 tally of 206.

Samajwadi Party is getting 132 seats, a gain from their 2007 tally of 97.

Congress is winning in 68 seats, a huge gain from the 22 seats it had won in 2007 while BJP is finishing with 65 and Rashtriya Lok Dal is getting 10 seats. Contesting alone, Congress in 2007 had 22 seats and BJP had won in 51 seats.

The alliance between Ajit Singh's RLD and Congress was announced mid way through the survey. The party's move to ally with Ajit Singh seems to be paying off as the survey estimates that the alliance will get 85 seats.

Within the alliance, Congress is winning in 70 seats while the RLD is getting 15.

In vote share, BSP is predicted to get only 24 per cent from its 30.43 per cent in the 2007 elections.

SP's vote share is 25 per cent, marginal drop from 25.43 per cent in 2007.

Congress alone gets 17 per cent but Congress-RLD in alliance is getting 19 per cent vote share, same as BJP.

Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi's aggressive campaign in UP seems to striking the right note with the voters.

The survey shows an overwhelming 47 per cent feel that the Congress general secretary should immediately take over as party president.

The survey also predicts if Rahul takes over, significant 24 per cent non-Congress voters will shift to Congress.