India's vote lab set to cook up a chaotic 2014

Days after a CNN-IBN-The Hindu survey revealed that people are dissatisfied with the present United Progressive Alliance government and believed that the UPA-II government does not deserve another term to rule, yet another poll has predicted a dispensation led by the National Democratic Alliance overtaking the ruling coalition’s tally in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

The Times Now-C Voter-India TV poll projects that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will emerge as the biggest alliance with 156 seats followed by the UPA (136)

For the NDA, the BJP is likely to be the single largest party with 131 seats; Shiv Sena with 15, Akali Dal with 7, Republican Party of India (Athawale) 2, Nationalist Peoples Party 1.

Projections show that the UPA coalition stands to lose 92 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. While the Congress is likely to bag 119 seats, allies Nationalist Congress Party could secure 6 seats, Rashtriya Lok Dal 3, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 3, Indian Union Muslim League 2, National Conference 2 and Kerala Congress (M) 1.

The survey claims that the two big national parties -- Congress and BJP -- could end up winning their lowest cumulative seats ever. Also, no single pre-poll formation looks in a position to form the government and will have to work very hard to get the support of key allies

projections...

The Times Now poll suggests that regional satraps could call the shots in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati will be crucial to any government formation moves.

Additionally it appears that an alternative front -- a third or fourth front -- led by the SP or the AIADMK which could emerge as the single largest non-Congress, non-BJP party could get the magic mark with the support of one of the larger national parties.

The projections show that the regional players improving their tally considerably in the polls.

Compared to the 183 seats that the regional parties together garnered in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the 2014 assessment gives them a tally of 251 seats, a gain of 68 seats.

The Left Front too seems to be set to cash in on the unpopularity of the current government. The Left Front is estimated to secure 33 seats as compared to the 24 it won in 2009.

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Gujarat strongman Narendra Modi now has more reasons to be ecstatic.

For yet another poll has predicted the BJP’s almost-declared prime ministerial candidate’s entry into 9, Race Course Road (The Prime Minister’s residence).

According to the Times Now poll, an overwhelming 37.7 per cent of those surveyed opted for Modi as the next Prime Minister.

Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi was the second choice for the PM’s post with 17.6 per cent votes; Manmohan Singh got 6.2 per cent; Sonia Gandhi gets 3.9 per cent.

The CNN-IBN poll showed 19 per cent of the respondents chose Modi for the top job amongst all leaders, only 12 per cent supported Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi.

Rediff.com had conducted a similar poll in April 2013 where Modi had been overwhelmingly voted as the best suited candidate for the prime minister’s job (See that poll here).

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The Times Now poll reveals interesting statistics coming from key states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

In Bihar, unlike popular perception, Janata Dal-United leader Nitish Kumar’s decision to part ways with the BJP seems to have backfired and helped the BJP instead.

The BJP is projected to improve its tally, winning 14 seats, while the JD-U tally is expected to go down to 11. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD too is projected to significantly improve its tally (12 seats compared to 4 in 2009). The Congress is expected to win just one seat.

In UP, the SP is expected to come up with a brilliant show, winning 33 seats, while the BSP gets 27, BJP 12 and Congress gets just 5 seats.

The Congress fares worst in Andhra Pradesh, getting just 7 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR congress has come up as the number one player in the state with 14 seats. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi improves its position winning 11 parliamentary seats and the Telugu Desam Party is likely to get 9.

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The projections show 46 per cent voters stating that their vote will be decided on the basis of who the Prime Ministerial candidate is

Just 21 per cent said they will vote on the basis of party while 25 per cent said they will vote on the basis of who the local MP candidate is.

Most respondents (65 percent) feel that naming Modi as prime ministerial candidate will actually help the BJP.

More projections:

* In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena stages a comeback in Maharashtra winning 15 seats. Sena's ally BJP gets 11, Congress 11, Sharad Pawar's NCP gets 6, Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena gets 3, and RPI (Athawale) wins 2.

* Delhi, which is headed for assembly polls in November, clearly seems to be with the BJP. The party is expected to win 6 of the seven seats.

* In West Bengal, Mamata's Trinamool is expected to win 22 seats, Left Front 17, Congress 2 and SUCI 1.

* In Punjab, Congress’s tally is expected to go down to 4 while wins BJP 2 and Akali Dal 7.

Click on MORE to see Rediff.com's projections....