If the BJP doesn't do as well as it is expected to, it might have to seek Upendra Kushwaha's help in forming a government for a price: the chief ministership. Aditi Phadnis reports
Abhay Kumar is a close watcher and astute judge of politics in Bihar. He is a teacher but also a highly accomplished psephologist. He urges that an individual called Upendra Kushwaha be taken more seriously when analysing politics in Bihar. Here's why.
At the end of the day, politics in Bihar is as much about caste and community as it is about development.
Broadly speaking, the upper castes or savarna, who are vocal but not numerous, are backing the Bharatiya Janata Party in Bihar.
The other backward classes -- the Kurmis, the Yadavs and the extreme backwards like the Dalits -- are (broadly) backing Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad.
But there is one other caste that is strongly anti-Nitish.
That is the Koeri whose leader, Upendra Kushwaha, is minister of state for human resource development.
Kushwaha was one of Lalu Prasad's lieutenants -- that is to say, he was bitterly against the Congress and sided with Prasad's social justice plank.
When Lalu Prasad cosied up to the Congress, Kushwaha walked away from his mentor. He was made leader of the Opposition, replacing Sushil Modi, before Nitish Kumar came to power.
In 2005 Kushwaha suffered a setback. He lost his seat in the Vidhan Sabha. Nitish Kumar accommodated others -- like Ramashray Prasad Singh who had also lost the election -- in the council of ministers but not Kushwaha. Right or wrong, Kushwaha nursed a grievance.
It became worse. Kushwaha expected to be promoted.
Instead Kumar promoted others, including Rajiv Ranjan Singh Lalan, a bitter political rival.
Although Kumar did send him to the Rajya Sabha, Kushwaha kicked the berth aside, two years before the end of his term.
Instead, in 2013, he launched his own party, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party. Later, he reached an electoral alliance with the BJP.
What made Kushwaha so confident?
Abhayji explains that Koeris are backward (they are mostly landless and have small businesses), but they are non-threatening.
They are not like the Yadavs, in whom everyone sees aggression and militancy. This is partly because only in a few constituencies Koeri votes are so numerous as to upset calculations.
They are distributed uniformly all over Bihar, adding up to 2,000-4,000 voters in most constituencies.
In around 25 seats, they number more than 10,000. There is no Koeri leader in the BJP.
The RLSP contested and won three seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.
Arun Kumar, a Bhumihar, won from Jehanabad. Kushwaha himself was elected from Karakat.
The Sitamarhi seat also went to RLSP.
Sitamarhi, by the way, was one of the regions badly affected by the earthquake recently and the BJP was at great pains to reach out to both the MP and the constituency to keep RLSP happy.
Interestingly, while campaigning, Upendra Kushwaha revealed that at least two wealthy leaders had offered him money to retire his Sitamarhi candidate.
Both were from the BJP. Instead, he said, he fielded the poorest candidate in Bihar, Ramkumar Kushwaha. He won.
The BJP knows so long as Upendra Kushwaha is in the National Democratic Alliance, no Koeri vote will stray.
There is a feeling among Kushwaha supporters that he is being taken for granted -- that at the very least the government should have made him a minister with independent charge.
Especially when you consider what he gave up -- his friendship with Nitish, his Rajya Sabha membership and a possible future in state politics that could have propelled him towards chief ministership in the future.
The RLSP is convinced that because of the caste division, the BJP will inch towards a majority in the Bihar assembly but will not be able to make it -- unless Kushwaha exerts himself.
He himself would like the NDA to draw up its strategy for the Bihar polls "carefully" and take a decision at the right time on whether to project a chief minister before the polls or not.
This remark was in the context of party leader Venkaiah Naidu virtually declaring senior BJP leader Sushil Modi the chief minister of Bihar, should the BJP come to power.
Kushwaha said, "Various leaders of the BJP and its allies, have expressed different opinions and suggested different names for the post of chief minister of Bihar. The matter would be decided by the NDA at the right time."
Kushwaha is likely to ask for 50 seats for the RLSP out of 243 in the assembly. He will probably get between 25 and 30 to contest and could win 15 to 17.
If the BJP does not do as well as it is expected to, it might have to seek Kushwaha's help in forming a government for a price: the chief ministership.
Abhayji feels Kushwaha is a man to watch in Bihar. He might be right.
