R Rajagopalan on why September promises to be a crucial month for Tamil Nadu.
September promises to be a crucial month for Tamil Nadu politics.
In the first week the speaker of the Tamil Nadu assembly P Dhanapal will suspend the 19 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam legislators who have shown their allegiance to rebel faction leader TTV Dinakaran.
Soon after, most likely on September 12, the AIADMK’s general council will convene for a stormy meeting, and resolve to remove Sasikala Natarajan as the general secretary of the party. Pushed to the corner, her nephew Dinakaran will end up taking asylum with the rival DMK.
But even that won’t turn out well.
For on September 20, the 2G scam verdict will be pronounced by the special court in New Delhi. And whichever way the verdict goes, it will succeed in regenerating an atmosphere of anti-DMK feelings in the state, which routed the party in the 2011 elections and singed its alliance partner the Congress.
In the midst of all this Dinakaran will move a no-confidence motion in the Tamil Nadu assembly. And given the way the numbers are stacked, it is reasonable to expect that the Edappadi K Palaniswami government will be voted out.
But here comes the twist. With the government’s fall Dinakaran will not join hands with the DMK, even though Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao will have to call the latter as the next largest party in the assembly to form the government.
DMK leader M K Stalin will not agree to heading a minority government and instead prefer to go in for early elections to the Tamil Nadu assembly.
In the short term, then, the state will come under President’s rule.
Fresh elections are likely to be held early next year, say, by February 2018.
The outcome of fresh elections will hinge on many factors.
Will the AIADMK get back its two-leaves election symbol by then?
Will superstar Rajnikanth enter politics?
Will his friend and rival Kamalahaasan, align with the DMK?
And, most importantly, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi be able to swing the state for the BJP?
R Rajagopalan is a veteran New Delhi-based journalist who has been following Tamil Nadu affairs for years.
