In hindsight, it is easy to say we should have anticipated this.
The incursion by the People's Liberation Army into Arunachal Pradesh during Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's trip to China is part of Beijing's continuous efforts to keep India on the backfoot.
Beijing is a master of such political one-upmanship, and this was evident in the way that the Chinese media gloated over a 'dramatic' change in India's Tibet's policy on the first day of the prime minister's visit. A flustered Indian government had to hustle to convince the people that it had not sold out the Tibetans to appease Beijing.
And while we were still celebrating the fact that China had finally 'recognised' Sikkim as part of Indian territory by opening up border posts for trade, Chinese troops were making forays into yet another Indian state that it refuses to recognise.
Frankly, I doubt that Arunachal interests China all that much. It is far more interested in the 38,000 sq km of the Aksai Chin area of Jammu and Kashmir which India claims is under illegal Chinese occupation since the late 1950s and the 5,180 sq km of Pakistan occupied Kashmir which was ceded to China in 1963.
In fact, for years, China has been suggesting that a mutual agreement to the border issue could be easily negotiated, including Chinese acceptance of Arunachal and Sikkim as Indian states, if India gave up its claim to Aksai Chin.
The reason for this is obvious. The hostile terrain notwithstanding, the Chinese have spent a fortune in building and maintaining an all weather road connecting western Tibet (or Xizang province) with Xinjiang province in the northwest. This strategic highway links Lhasa to Khasgar.
The PLA and the Chinese version of the Border Roads Organisation are continuously engaged in upgrading and maintaining this crucial link, one of the highest in the world, which is used to transport troops and goods through this axis.
Given all this, China wants India to accept that this area is part of China, in return for which it is willing to concede that Arunachal Pradesh is a part of India.
But can India afford to officially give up nearly 20 per cent of undivided Jammu and Kashmir?
As for Arunachal, the state's early history is shrouded in dispute. Even the British had problems with the Chinese over its northern border since 1913. The recorded history of the state starts only from the 16th century when the Ahom kings began their rule of Assam. In 1838, when the British took possession of Assam, it also brought Arunachal Pradesh also under its administrative control, and designated the entire area as the North East Frontier Agency, NEFA. After independence, it was placed under the administration of the Union Government in 1948.
It became a Union Territory on January 20, 1972, and a full fledged state on February 20, 1987.
And, of course, in the late 1950s and early 1960s, Chinese troops repeatedly crossed the McMohan Line laid down by the British, capturing Indian soldiers and posts. This culminated in the 1962 border war in which India was totally trounced. However, due to overstretched supply lines, the Chinese unilaterally withdrew behind the McMohan line and announced a ceasefire.
But Beijing never did accept the line -- which it described as an imperial legacy -- as the official boundary and refused to accept the existence of the state of Arunachal Pradesh. This, despite having resolved its territorial dispute with Burma on the basis of the same line. China also felt the same way about the accession of Sikkim, saying India had forced the tiny nation to merge with it.
In fact, India's repeated refusal to negotiate the status of Aksai Chin is probably the main reason behind Beijing's reluctance to resolve the border dispute. And though both sides have tried to play down the latest incident in Arunachal, the fact remains that the Chinese have once again reiterated their refusal to recognise the state as a part of India.
Perhaps the Indian government needs to learn the game from the Chinese. Here are some things that come to mind.
One, it could unofficially let it be known that it would be willing to consider the status quo of Aksai Chin, or even concede it officially to China, if Beijing could convince its 'all weather' friend Pakistan to give back the rest of occupied Kashmir to India.
Two, we could peg the resolution of the dispute over Arunachal to another long-standing Chinese demand, that of a free trade zone in the northeast comprising China's poorest province of Yunnan, Myamnar, Bangladesh and the eastern Indian state of Assam.
The basis of this is the Kumning Initiative approved at the Track II Conference on Regional Cooperation and Development August 17, 1999, among China, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh held in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province.
The main focus of the conference was to convince the governments concerned to improve communications between the southwestern region of China and the northeastern region of India by developing appropriate road, rail, waterway and air links. More specifically, it called for the revival of the ancient Southern Silk Route between Assam and Yunnan.
The revival of this route would provide China direct access to Indian and Western markets, which otherwise involves a long 7,000 km detour via Singapore and Hong Kong. Bangladesh and Myanmar both stand to gain from this too, but India has been holding out.
The main reason involves fears that cheap Chinese products would invade the market in the northeast, and that the route would be a haven for smugglers and drug dealers. Others point to the unstable situation in the northeast, and cite security considerations.
But many, including officials in Assam, point out that smuggling takes place anyway, and that opening this route would prove to be an economic shot in the arm for the state. And that such economic growth would deter, not encourage political stability.
And finally, though this is most unlikely to happen, India could also start unofficial talks on recognising Taiwan, or at least forging further ties with the government there.
Now that is something which will make Beijing sit up and take notice.
Claude Arpi: Beijing's Arunachal Card
Claude Arpi: Aksai Chin for Arunachal?
