'With continued focus on votes, upcoming by-polls and purchasing politicians, the political hierarchy has little time for national defence.'
'They would do well to heed a veteran scholar, who says, "There will be war with China in the next few years. The next full scale war will have the involvement of Pakistan and terror elements, insurgents and intelligence assets operating inside India",' warns Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi on July 25, 2024 (for the second time in three weeks) on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos.
Both reportedly agreed on 'strong guidance' to end the LAC impasse -- completing disengagement in eastern Ladakh.
Jaishankar posted on X: 'Met with CPC Politburo member and FM Wah Yi in Vientiane today. Continued with our ongoing discussions about our bilateral relationship.
'The state of the border will necessarily be reflected on the state of our ties. Agreed on the need to give strong guidance to complete the disengagement process.
'Must ensure full respect for the LAC and past agreements. It is in our mutual interest to stabilize our ties with a sense of purpose and urgency.'
A ministry of external affairs statement said the talks focused on finding an early resolution to remaining issues along the LAC to stabilize and rebuild bilateral relations and both ministers agreed on the need to work with purpose and urgency to achieve complete disengagement at the earliest.
The Chinese statement did not specifically mention the need to expedite disengagement, but said the two sides agreed to work together to maintain peace and promote 'new progress' in border areas consultation.
It is hoped that the two sides will meet each other halfway, actively explore the correct way for the two neighbouring major countries to get along, and guide all sectors to establish a positive understanding of each other, adding Wang stressed normalcy in India-China ties is also a common expectation of the Global South.
If the India-China statement had said 'Very Strong Guidance' instead of 'Strong Guidance', maybe it could be considered some diplomatic progress at least.
'Strong Guidance' is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had agreed to at Wuhan in April 2018 for the respective militaries to build trust and understanding.
So what happened to the 'strong guidance' between 2018 and 2024?
China is unlikely to change the 'current' status quo and Jaishankar probably knows it.
National Security Advisor Ajit K Doval, designated by the government a few years ago to discuss the border issue with Wang, understood the Chinese better and gave up discussions after more than a dozen rounds of bilateral talks.
The cardinal sin India committed in 2020 was to say nothing really happened in Ladakh.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh became famous yodeling 'not even one inch of territory lost', which prompted the prime minister to clap and endorse him.
The result was Beijing blamed India as the 'aggressor' and the cause for violence at the border.
India continues to cover up that cardinal sin since then.
Later, Depsang and Demchok crept into the media but that is only part of the issue.
Excerpts from the autobiography of former army chief General M M Naravane exposed India's pusillanimity -- not even firing at PLA tanks advancing on Indian posts.
India is batting that the 1993 and 1996 India-China border agreements required both sides to refrain from amassing large numbers of troops in border areas, abide by and respect the LAC, and avoid taking any unilateral action.
We should have strongly objected under Article 1 of the 1996 agreement that states: 'Neither side shall use its military capability against the other side. No armed forces deployed along the LAC shall be used to attack the other side.'
But we couldn't do so because we didn't call China the 'aggressor' while China labeled us so.
China has been saying the LAC issue does not 'represent the entirety of China-India relations, and it should be placed appropriately in bilateral relations and managed properly'.
In 2020, the PLA crossed west of China's 1959 claim line in Ladakh which India had never recognized.
Now Indian troops can't patrol 26 out of 65 patrolling points.
Among the many intrusions made by the PLA, the biggest is 20 km deep in Depsang.
India vacated the Kailash Range in our territory, including a post directly overlooking the PLA's Moldo garrison, in exchange for mutual disengagement along the north bank of Pangong Tso; leaving India with just one solitary post on the north bank.
The PLA doesn't allow patrolling in multiple buffer zones (all in Indian territory), China has been signaling the PLA will not move back anymore from its positions occupied in 2020, where it has consolidated.
India has lost control of over thousands of sq km of territory in eastern Ladakh, which includes traditional grazing grounds notwithstanding the government denials.
China built and occupied dual-use military villages in Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan during the continuing India-China standoff.
Beijing is more than happy holding all aces and reaping some $100 billion annual profit through India-China bilateral trade more than before 2020; India is helping modernise the PLA while China has hiked its defence budget by 7.2 percent.
Moreover, China has surpassed the US as India's top trading partner.
To top this, India is now working on opening up Chinese investments in India, according to newspaper reports.
One view is that the government is following a policy of 'purchasing' peace from China but another view is that Wang can auction his counterparts on the streets of Shanghai.
Yet another view is that under 'new progress' mentioned in the Chinese statement, India is working on giving up Aksai Chin and what China took in Ladakh during 2020, hoping that would usher peace for a few years at least.
But amid the handshakes and bland smiles, we must remember: Zhou en-Lai visited India in 1962 giving no indication of the Chinese invasion in the offing; when Xi Jinping visited India (October 2019) he would have already planned invading eastern Ladakh and the Galwan action next year; at the SCO summit in 2022 attended by Modi and Xi, China distributed maps showing Arunachal and Ladakh part of China, and J&K as part of Pakistan.
With continued focus on votes, upcoming by-polls and purchasing politicians, the political hierarchy has little time for national defence.
They would do well to heed a veteran-scholar, who says, "We need a defence budget at 4% of GDP through the next decade if we want to be counted and heard in world affairs. The world understands only military power. That's how North Korea is not invaded by Uncle Sam."
"That there will be war with China in the next few years is the writing on the wall. That's the only way the PLA will test its systems, weapons and technology before it takes on the US, China being the de facto number two military and economic power."
"The next full scale war will have the involvement of Pakistan and terror elements, insurgents and intelligence assets operating inside India."
Another post on social media says, 'Forget about winning, the moot point is shall we be able to defend ourselves effectively without colossal military and economic damage?
'How any country can plan for future conflict in absence of a comprehensive national security strategy is beyond comprehension?
"But then we have a police officer as NSA and political leadership which has no understanding of army and conflicts."
A veteran vice chief of army staff cautions, "India needs to be careful; 1962 was different when China had limitations but things are different now."
Finally, can the political hierarchy wake up from its supine slumber?
Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC is a former Special Forces officer.
He is a third generation army officer and participated in the 1971 India-Pakistan War and in Operation Bluestar.
He commanded a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka, a Brigade on the Siachen Glacier, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in the South Western Theatre.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
