'Not only Hindu votes': Top pollster decodes BJP's Bengal win

According to pollster Pradeep Gupta, the BJP's rise in West Bengal was due to years of TMC 'misrule' creating a 'climate of fear', coupled with Narendra Modi's charisma and strong organisational efforts.

Years of TMC "misrule" that created a "climate of fear", Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma and the organisational abilities of Amit Shah and the RSS brought the BJP to power in West Bengal, according to India's top pollster Pradeep Gupta.

In an interview to PTI on Wednesday, Gupta, who runs Axis My India, dismissed suggestions that a consolidation of Hindu votes played any role in the ouster of Mamata Banerjee's TMC after 15 years in power.

He also hailed the Indian voter, from the poorest village to the wealthiest city, as mature and smart, saying they are not majorly influenced by poll promises, freebies or religion. Good governance, rather than religious polarisation, was helping the BJP establish its dominance, he asserted.

The Role of Governance Over Religious Polarisation

"Hindu and Muslim issues do not determine victory or losses. When you attribute BJP's win to Hindu vote consolidation, you undermine the good development and the good work done in those states," Gupta said.

Specifically on Bengal, he said the TMC had created a climate of fear which, he said, was evident when his surveyors talked to respondents after the first round of voting on April 23. They refused to talk to the surveyors which was a clear indication that they had moved away from the TMC and voted for the BJP.

"Puja se zyada mahatva pait ka hai, aur pait se bada mahatva jaan ka hai (For people, food in the stomach is more important than worship. And even more important than food in the stomach is life)," Gupta told PTI in an interview spanning a range of subjects from the recent results of assembly polls to the evolving mind of the Indian voter.

Challenges Faced During West Bengal Elections

While Axis My India accurately predicted the results in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, it decided not to release the exit poll estimates for West Bengal, citing an "exceptionally high" -- 70 per cent -- non-response rate. Gupta claimed that the TMC misused the state machinery to intimidate, and in some instances even arrest, his surveyors.

"Even during this election in Bengal, six of our people were jailed. They were released only after the courts reprimanded the state government," he said, adding that police stations across West Bengal were alerted to be on the lookout for surveyors from Axis My India.

Tamil Nadu Prediction and the Rise of C Joseph Vijay

Gupta said Axis My India's precise Tamil Nadu prediction - which stood out because most agencies projected the DMK's return - was essentially an outcome of its year-long presence on the ground. Gupta said that while he had no doubt in his mind that C Joseph Vijay had emerged as a frontrunner, he worried about getting the seat share right.

"TVK's vote share was around 25 per cent around six months before the polls. It rose to 28 per cent three months ago, then to about 30 per cent about a month ago. And by the polling day, it had risen to 35 per cent. This was the trajectory," he said, underlining that Vijay's appeal as a star, particularly his political films, understandably propelled his rise.

More importantly, said Gupta, Vijay successfully converted his brand equity into a credible political alternative in the minds of voters looking for options beyond the two Dravidian majors DMK and AIADMK.

"We talk about demographic shifts these days. Just like a young India has emerged, there is a young Tamil Nadu as well. On top of that, those looking for an alternative to the DMK did not find any appeal in the AIADMK. They found it in Vijay and the results are in front of you," he said.

Analysing Vote Consolidation in West Bengal

To buttress his point that Hindu consolidation alone does not help the BJP win, Gupta pointed to the 2021 assembly poll verdict in West Bengal, where the party won 38.15 per cent votes and 77 seats.

"One can assume there is consolidation when support for a particular party among a social group breaches the 50 per cent mark. Muslims account for 27 per cent of the population in West Bengal and Hindus 73 per cent.

"The BJP secured 38 per cent of the total vote in 2021. If we assume that virtually all of the BJP's votes came from Hindus, that would mean the party received around 52 per cent of Hindu votes. Yet they got only 77 seats," Gupta said.

Similar has been the case in many other state polls in the past, including in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Gupta said.