Kerala has never witnessed such a close call in assembly elections in its history, as it did this year. It was indeed a photo finish between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Communist Party of India-Marxist-led Left Democratic Front on Friday.
It was like a thrilling T20 match with one batsman pitching in with a spectacular performance. The LDF has managed to win as many as 68 seats, against 72 of the UDF, only because of the goodwill of V S Achuthanandan, has garnered as an honest chief minister with good intentions.
If his party had backed him and the party workers worked hard for him, it would have been an easy win for VS and the LDF. Unfortunately, the party even refused to offer him a seat initially, and was later forced to do so after wide-spread protests.
After covering the campaign trail from capital Thiruvananthapuram to Palakkad along the border with Tamil Nadu, one did get the feeling that it was going to be a tough fight, unlike the Lok Sabha and panchayat polls where the UDF had decimated the LDF.
According to political analysts, the UDF had an upper hand in southern Kerala while the LDF enjoyed major support in north Kerala. But the election results threw up a different pattern, with the UDF sweeping only Kottayam and Ernakulam in southern Kerala. Surprisingly, Kollam went to the LDF.
Alappuzha was expected to be a LDF bastion; but its seven wins as against the two seats won by the UDF was unexpected. Same was the case with Idukki and Thiruvananthapuram. The results from Kannur and Kasaragod, traditional strongholds of the Left, were surprising as the UDF put up a very good show. As expected, Muslim dominated Malappuram went the UDF way.
Now that the UDF has scraped through with a lead of just four seats, will it be able to provide a stable government? It seems unlikely as smaller parties like the Kerala Congress-Mani have started flexing their muscles. Mani has already ominously stated that he had to "sacrifice a lot".
As against the 38 seats (out of the 82 seats it had contested) won by the Congress, Kerala Congress has won 9 (out of 15 seats contested). The Muslim League has fared better by winning 20 of the 24 seats it contested.
All these parties are likely to become hard bargainers for the spoils.
With Congress leader Oommen Chandi winning by a margin of more than 32,000 votes and Ramesh Chennithala (who was asked to enter the fray at the last minute by Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi), getting only a 5,000 odd margin in victory, it can be assumed that Chandi will be the candidate for the chief minister's post.
But with all the smaller parties bargaining for power, how stable will be his tenure as CM? Will he able to carry all the coalition allies together for the next five years?
In spite of the UDF winning the Kerala elections by a small margin, VS walks away with a bit of glory. He almost single-handedly made the CPI-M the single largest party in the assembly (the party has won 45 seats).
So who should receive the man of the match award -- VS or the CPI-M which almost committed political harakiri by not co-operating with its own chief minister or Chandi, who is not exactly a winner even after winning the match?
