Will Jarange cost Bhujbal his election?

Bhujbal stridently opposed Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange's demand for Maratha quota from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) share.

The Maratha-OBC quota issue and trends in onion prices are among the campaign themes likely to impact the poll outcome in Maharashtra's Yevla assembly constituency from where Nationalist Congress Party minister Chhagan Bhujbal is seeking a re-election.

Located in Nashik district, Yevla is home to one of the biggest onion wholesale markets in the country.

Nationalist Congress Party heavyweight Bhujbal's aggressive stance against Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange has endeared him to the OBC communities, but may put off a section of Marathas in his first electoral battle since the split in the party.

His one time aide and now rival NCP-SP candidate Manikrao Shinde, who belongs to the Maratha community, claimed voters in the constituency support his party head Sharad Pawar and this would go in his favour.

However, Bhujbal, who has stridently opposed Jarange's demand for Maratha quota from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) share, is confident of retaining his seat, unfazed by the defeat of BJP leader Bharati Pawar from Dindori Lok Sabha constituency (which includes Yevla segment) in the general polls earlier this year.

The state assembly elections will be held on November 20 and votes will be counted on November 23.

The Yevla assembly segment, in north Maharashtra, houses Lasalgaon APMC, one of the biggest onion wholesale markets in the country, vulnerable to the government's export and import policies regarding the perishable produce.

Also famous for the Paithani sarees, the constituency comprises 3,26,626 voters, including nearly 1.35 lakh Marathas.

Local vegetable vendor Urmila Bankar said the state government has implemented various schemes, such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana which provides her a monthly assistance of Rs 1,500.

"However, I want to make an effort to have an income independently. I understand that government schemes like this are temporary and not sustainable in the long run. I wonder if the sitting MLA could confront the Union government regarding our issues (like inflation)," she said.

Bhujbal (77), who hails from the Mali OBC community, started as a vegetable vendor in Mumbai's Byculla market.

When Bal Thackeray founded the Shiv Sena in 1966, Bhujbal was among the first to join it, advocating for the rights and pride of the Marathi community.

Once a fierce supporter of the Hindutva ideology, Bhujbal joined the Congress in 1991 when Sharad Pawar was the chief minister. He focused on expanding his influence among the OBCs in the state.

Last year, Bhujbal supported the Ajit Pawar-led faction when it joined the BJP-Shiv Sena government, leading to a split in the NCP founded by Sharad Pawar.

Bhujbal had said his decision was motivated by the concerns for voters, whose needs must be addressed.

His challenger Manikrao Shinde had helped Bhujbal in his win on the Congress ticket in the 2004 assembly elections.

Bhujbal had earlier also been a legislator in 1985 and 1990 from Mumbai's Mazgaon assembly segment and represented the (then undivided) Shiv Sena.

Expressing confidence of his victory this time, Bhujbal said, "I have won every assembly election from 2004 to 2019, and I am confident I will win this one as well. The work I have done for the local community, including the initiation of several drinking water schemes, will help me win this poll."

However, a close aide of Bhujbal claimed there is "strong excitement" among the Maratha youth regarding Jarange, as they see him as one of their own.

"While Bhujbal's opposition to Jarange's demand for the Maratha quota under the OBC category was technically justified, it has negatively impacted the young voters," he said.

Shinde said the Yevla voters have been loyal supporters of Sharad Pawar.

"We tolerated Bhujbal because Pawar nominated him in every election. However, Bhujbal engaged in divisive politics. When Bhujbal went against Pawar's wishes and joined the government alongside Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar held a rally in Yevla to apologise to the people for posing trust in Bhujbal," he said.

"Since then, a significant number of Sharad Pawar's supporters have started to distance themselves from Bhujbal," he claimed.

The intensity of the farmers' opposition to the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections is evident, Shinde said.

"A little-known candidate running against Bharati Pawar received over one lakh votes, still she lost the election by more than one lakh votes to NCP (SP) nominee Bhaskar Bhagare. His namesake candidate was supposed to eat into Bhagare's votes and help Pawar win, but it did not happen because farmers from everywhere (in the constituency) were angry," he claimed.

The NCP (SP) candidate also said he met Jarange recently and sought his support.

"It would be helpful to get an endorsement from Jarange as he has strong support in our community. People relate to his speeches, and they feel he is genuinely raising their issues," Shinde said.

On the other side, Bhujbal said that unlike the Lok Sabha polls, people go by personal contact and association with a candidate in the assembly polls.

"It (voting pattern) is beyond party lines. I have undertaken numerous development works and I have been doing it for years. People will not forget it so easily when it comes to voting," he said.