'During the hot season (April to June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except in some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal,' IMD said.
IMD April temperature outlook
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said maximum temperatures in April are likely to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country, with rainfall expected to reach 112 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
Most weather models also indicate the potential development of El Niño during the Indian southwest monsoon season, which begins after June.
The met department, however, did not specify whether El Niño would affect the monsoon, saying that detailed projections would be provided in its annual monsoon forecast in mid-April.
El Niño monsoon risk signals
What's up with the weather
- In April, temperatures likely to remain normal to below normal in most parts.
- El Niño is expected but no clarity on its impact on Indian monsoon, says IMD.
- Indian Ocean Dipole, a major determinant of the Indian monsoon, likely to remain positive.
- Rabi crops across northern and central India to be affected if April sees rainfall.
"The Indian monsoon does not depend on a single factor but on a multitude of events," IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
Models suggest the Indian Ocean Dipole -- another key influence on the monsoon -- is expected to be positive in the latter half of the season, Mohapatra added.
Impact on rabi crops
If April turns out to be wetter and cooler than normal in North and Central India, it could affect standing late-sown rabi crops.
The IMD also said that parts of East, Central, and Northwest India, along with the Southeast Peninsula, may experience more heatwave days than usual between April and June.
During this period, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal over much of the country, except in most parts of East and Northeast India, Eastern Central India, and adjoining peninsular regions, where above-normal maximum temperatures are likely.
Heatwave days warning India
'During the hot season (April to June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except in some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal,' IMD said.
Rainfall forecast 112 percent LPA
For April specifically, monthly maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many areas, with above-normal temperatures predicted in parts of East and Northeast India, some regions of Northwest India, and Southern Peninsular India.
Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are also likely across most of India, except for isolated pockets in the Southern Peninsula, where normal minimums are expected.
'Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is expected,' IMD added.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
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