In an election where every seat will matter, micro-strategising is going to be the order of the day.
And in such a situation, party infighting -- in all parties -- could lead to unpredictable results.
Bharatiya Janata Party national General Secretary C T Ravi's comments about ticket distribution in Karnataka caused a hubbub in the poll-bound state.
Given that there is just over a month left for elections, Ravi said nominations for the coming election would not be decided in people's kitchens.
This was in response to a reported statement by former chief minister and Lingayat strongman B S Yediyurappa that his son B Y Vijayendra would contest from his Shikaripura constituency.
'Nobody will get a ticket because they are somebody's son. The decision on the ticket will also not be taken in the home of the aspirant. On the question of Vijayendra, the decision will be taken by the parliamentary board. The party will decide based on the winnability of the candidate after analysing surveys. Those surveys will not be conducted in the kitchens of leaders,' Ravi told reporters in Bengaluru.
At first, Ravi's remarks were met with silence.
Then Yediyurappa responded: Yes, he said at a meeting in Karnataka, tickets would not be decided by individuals in their kitchens, but the BJP's parliamentary board.
Given that he is a member of the parliamentary board, this was a direct challenge: not just to Ravi but his mentor, BJP Organising Secretary B L Santhosh.
Party leaders and BJP supporters watching this back-and-forth exchange were both amused and embarrassed.
"You may not like Yediyurappa: but you cannot deny his stature in the state. In contrast, Ravi and Santhosh are important people in the organisation, trusted for their judgement and commitment. But Ravi has no influence, except for his constituency Chikmagalur. Santhosh knows everyone in the party, but is not known for his political work outside the party," said a BJP leader from Karnataka.
It is the BJP's worst-kept secret that Santhosh and Yediyurappa have been at loggerheads for years.
In 2017, Yediyurappa publicly charged that Santhosh was propping up rebels in the BJP.
Local BJP workers are used to this sniping: They say both Santhosh and Yediyurappa belong to Shimoga (now Shivamogga) district. Some amount of rivalry is natural, they say.
But Ravi's authority and power are in no doubt either. What he says also bears Santhosh's stamp.
At a meeting in Chikamagalur some years ago, Ravi made a public declaration of his admiration for Santhosh.
'Thirty years ago, Santhosh did his engineering course with distinction but preferred to join the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) to render social service. Senior BJP leaders like Deendayal Upadhyaya, L K Advani and Kushabhau Thakre, among others, had been RSS pracharaks in the past and the strong pracharak tradition had helped the BJP emerge as a strong party,' he reminded workers.
The decision on who should be the CM candidate of the party should be left to the BJP leadership and not to any individual, he added.
The party is trying to navigate a way around this rivalry.
By elevating Yediyurappa to the parliamentary board last year, the party has also acknowledged that he cannot be consigned to the wilderness.
Vijayendra's inclusion in the party's campaign committee ahead of the elections is part of this admission.
Santhosh's powers in the party are not without checks either.
BJP sources say after then Union minister H N Ananthakumar's death in 2018, and the resultant vacancy for the Bengaluru South Lok Sabha constituency, a significant part of the party put forward Santhosh's name for the seat.
Local constituency workers favoured Tejaswini, Ananthakumar's widow.
Tejasvi Surya, a youngster in the organisation, was selected to fill the vacancy as a compromise, with Santhosh being elevated organisationally.
As the Congress, BJP, and Janata Dal-Secular) gear up to finalise candidates, all eyes are on a few constituencies and the choice of candidates.
In Kolar, for instance, the BJP does not have much presence, but the constituency has a significant Kuruba (shepherd) population, on the back of which Congress leader Siddaramaiah has announced he could be contesting from the assembly constituency which is a JD-S pocket borough.
Yediyurappa is also making plans. Earlier this year, he said: 'Do not think I'm making a baseless prediction, but Siddaramaiah will not contest from Kolar for any reason. He is hardly trying to go back to Mysuru.'
In an election where every seat will matter, micro-strategising is going to be the order of the day.
And in such a situation, party infighting -- in all parties -- could lead to unpredictable results.
