Above-normal cold wave days are expected in some areas of central India, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during January 2026.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said that 2025 was the eighth warmest year on record for India since 1901, with the emergence of 11 cyclonic depressions -- higher than the usual six -- and extreme weather events claiming 2,760 lives, of which 1,317 were due to lightning and thunderstorms alone.
Releasing the seasonal rainfall forecast for January-February-March (JFM) 2026 and the temperature outlook for January 2026, along with the Statement on the Climate of India in 2025, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that in 2025, the all-India annual mean land surface air temperature was 0.28 degree C higher than the long-term average.
"This made 2025 the eighth warmest year since nationwide temperature records began in 1901. The warmest year on record was 2024, when temperatures across India were 0.65 degree C above the long-term average," Mohapatra said.
In fact, the top five warmest years since 1901 have all occurred in the past 16 years, starting from 2009, clearly highlighting the growing influence of climate change on India's weather.
In terms of cyclonic depressions, 2025 saw a total of 11 systems (including three deep depressions) forming over the North Indian Ocean, higher than the climatological annual average of about six systems.
'In addition to cyclonic systems, several extreme weather events -- including cloudbursts, heavy rainfall, floods, landslides, lightning, thunderstorms, droughts, and related hazards -- were reported across different parts of the country,' the IMD said.
Mohapatra added that roughly 2,760 fatalities were recorded in 2025 due to various extreme weather events.
Uttar Pradesh was the most severely affected state, reporting over 410 deaths attributed to lightning, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, floods, heat waves, and cold waves, followed by Madhya Pradesh with more than 350 fatalities linked to lightning, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, floods, gales, and heat waves.
Maharashtra reported over 270 deaths, and Jharkhand recorded more than 200 fatalities.
Regarding the weather forecast for JFM 2026, Mohapatra said that rainfall over Northwest India -- particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Ladakh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh -- is most likely to be below normal, at around 86 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
The LPA of rainfall over Northwest India during JFM, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 184.3 millimetres.
For the country as a whole, rainfall could be around 88 per cent of the LPA, also below normal.
"This could have some impact on rabi crops. While rains could be beneficial, most parts of North India are highly irrigated, and reservoirs and other water bodies are full due to good monsoon rainfall," Mohapatra said.
For January 2026 alone, the IMD said that monthly minimum temperatures are likely to be below normal over most regions of the country, except for some parts of northwest and northeast India, as well as the southern peninsula.
Above-normal cold wave days are also expected in some areas of central India, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during January 2026, the Met department added.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
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