How Did 'Poll Diary' Get Numbers Right?

The little-known 'Poll Diary' was the only pollster which predicted that the NDA would win over 200 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan would fall below 50.

Most exit polls got the direction of the Bihar assembly polls right but could not predict its scale with only one calling the results correctly for the National Democratic Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan.

The little-known 'Poll Diary' was the only pollster which predicted that the NDA would win over 200 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan would fall below 50. It predicted that the NDA would get between 184 and 209 seats, and the Mahagathbandhan 32 to 49.

While the NDA won or was leading in over 200 seats, the Mahagathbandhan was poised to get around 35 seats.

Exit polls on Tuesday had predicted a return of the NDA government in Bihar with a big victory over the Mahagathbandhan, and a disappointing show by Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj in its debut outing.

The Axis My India exit poll predicted that the NDA would be ahead of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar but the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party.

Axis My India predicted the NDA to win between 121 and 141 seats, and the Mahagathbandhan 98 and 118 seats. It gave 0-2 seats to the Jan Suraaj.

Today's Chanakya forecast that while the BJP and its allies would get 160 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats), the RJD and its allies would bag 77 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats).

It forecast that the BJP and its allies would bag 44 per cent (plus-minus 3 per cent) vote share and the RJD and its allies would get 38 per cent (plus-minus 3 pr cent) votes.

While the Matrize exit poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147 and 167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70 to 90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0 to 2 seats, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145 to 160 seats for the NDA and 73 to 91 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.

While the People's Insight predicted 133 to 148 seats for the NDA, 87 to 102 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0 to 2 for Jan Suraaj, the People's Pulse gave 133 to 159 seats to the NDA, 75 to 101 to the Mahagathbandhan, and 0 to 5 to Prashant Kishore's party.

The JVC forecast 135 to 150 seats for the NDA and 88 to 103 for the Mahagathbandhan. Polstrat predicted 133 to 148 seats for the NDA and 87 to 102 for the Mahagathbandhan.

While Chanakya Strategies gave the NDA 130 to 138 eats, 100 to 108 to the Mahagathbandhan, and zero to Jan Suraaj, pollster P-Marq predicted the NDA to win 142 to 162 seats, Mahagathbandhan 80 to 98 and Jan Suraaj 1 to 4.

The majority mark in the 243-member assembly is 122.