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Mehta, Patel differences may let Parikh off the hook

Gujarat Chief Minister Dilip Parikh is in Delhi.

On his mind, are reports that the support extended to his government by the Congress could vanish, like dew at dawn. And that the Bharatiya Janata Party for its part is determined to unseat him.

And on his agenda is a one-point plan, to persuade the Congress leadership to refrain from pulling the rug out from under his Rashtriya Janata Party government.

Crucial to his survival is dissident Congress leader Chhabildas Mehta who, after initially assuring the party leadership that he would ensure the Parikh ministry's survival, has begun making threatening noises.

Mehta's first act was to convene a meeting of legislators belonging to the now defunct Janata Dal (Gujarat), of which he was one of its leading lights before its merger with the Congress. Interestingly, 27 of the 44 Congress legislators in Gujarat belong to this block -- but only four of them attended the meeting.

Mehta, on record, has been demanding that the Congress withdraw support to the Parikh government. However, his hidden agenda according to sources in the know is to pressurise Parikh into giving him a share in the government.

The Congress leadership, though, is in no mood to consider joining hands with the Parikh government. At least, not just yet -- the thinking being that it is wiser to wait for the results of the confidence vote before making a bid for power.

In order to muzzle Mehta and prevent him from upsetting that particular applecart, the good offices of former prime minister Chandra Shekhar are being harnessed by the Congress leadership. The line being sold to Mehta is that if he moves against the RJP government, he will in effect help the BJP capture power.

Senior Congress leaders argue that Mehta will not be able to split the party even if he wants to. "Though 27 of the 44 party legislators belong to the erstwhile JD(G), they do not operate en bloc," said a senior Congress leader. "They do not have one leader."

The official party estimate is that Mehta has anywhere between four and eight legislators backing him, and that former Union minister Urmilaben Patel -- widow of JD(G) founder Chimanbhai Patel -- can count on a similar number. And that the lack of unity between Patel and Mehta will effectively prevent the erstwhile JD (G) legislators coming together to split the Congress ranks.

Interestingly, Patel had earlier made a bid for power on her own, when she began negotiating with the BJP. This scheme was exposed by Mehta. Now, Patel is hell bent on paying Mehta back for that particular political injury, as witness her refusal to meet the media, in Delhi, alongside Mehta though the latter had requested her to.

Mehta, for his part, struck back by not inviting her to the upcoming two-day conclave of the JD(G).

If the Congress leadership is sanguine, the state unit is somewhat less so. A senior state-level leader pointed out that while it is true that "all 27 MLAs might not rally around Mehta to collaborate with the BJP, it is quite possible that the faction may quit the Congress and function as a separate group. And If that happens, it will fulfill the BJP game plan, which is that of forcing an election on the state."

The hesitation, and doubt, comes from realpolitik's equivalent of the scalded cat syndrome. The Congress, having discovered recently that its best laid plans were upset, with ridiculous ease, by Kalyan Singh in Uttar Pradesh, now seems to find phantoms in every press release, and a defector at every dinner table.

Thus, it is 'wait and watch' time, for everyone -- at least till November 13, when Parikh takes the floor of the Assembly and asks for a vote of confidence in his shaky government.

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