'It will impact the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.'
The Bharatiya Janata Party has won the Uttar Pradesh assembly election in spectacular fashion.
UP, a state which is almost at the bottom of the table in terms of per capita income, in terms of eradication of poverty, in terms of human development index.
A state where 29.43% of the population live under the national poverty line percentage, making it one of the poorest states in the country.
A state where 37.79% of the population is poor according to the multi-dimension poverty index released by NITI Ayog.
A state where the per capita income is Rs 56,446, three times lower than Kerala.
Still, the people of UP voted for the BJP and its chief minister, Yogi Adityanath.
Why?
What kind of impact will these election results have on the future of India?
"It signals the dominance of the BJP... There were strong alternatives opposing the BJP in these states, yet, large numbers of voters preferred the incumbent party," Professor Zoya Hasan, Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University and Distinguished Faculty, Council for Social Development, New Delhi, tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier. The first of a two-part interview:
How do you see the days ahead for the country and UP?
It is a massive victory for the BJP everywhere, except in Punjab, where they were not a major player in any case.
Of course, the greatest victory has happened in UP, the most politically crucial state.
This is a turning point in India's electoral history. It will impact the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Why do you think this is a turning point in India's electoral history?
It signals the dominance of the BJP. Well, it has been a dominant party, but it has often not performed as well in the state elections as they do in the Lok Sabha elections.
But in this round of assembly elections, the BJP has won four out of five state assembly elections. This is a significant development.
The second major signal is the wipeout of the Congress. The Punjab result is a self-inflicted defeat for the party.
The Congress leadership failed to control factionalism, it did not rein in Navjot Singh Sidhu who was undercutting Charanjit Singh Channi from the moment he was appointed as chief minister.
The Congress was not just defeated, it has been decimated in Punjab.
Can the Congress re-emerge from such a debacle?
The history of the Congress indicates that once it has been reduced to the level it is in Punjab in this election, revival is tough.
It would be difficult to recover from this dramatic defeat just as it has been difficult to regain lost ground in UP or West Bengal or Tamil Nadu after major defeats in these states.
Once it was reduced to insignificance in the big states by regional parties, it has never been able to regain its political support.
So, Punjab is a very serious setback for the Congress.
Is this going to be the end of the hold the Gandhi family has on the Congress?
I think it's too early and perhaps premature to make such pronouncements. But, yes, the die is cast against them.
There is bound to be huge disappointment and disillusionment with the leadership of the Gandhis as the Congress has repeatedly failed to win elections under their leadership, but whether it signals the end of the family's control over the Congress remains to be seen.
This is an existential crisis for the Congress. It is a crisis of survival.
But the problems facing the Congress are well known and yet they have not been addressed in the last eight years or more.
For a start, the most obvious is that in three years since Rahul Gandhi resigned as Congress president the party has not held party elections to replace him.
Sonia Gandhi says she is a full time hands on president.
But the fact is that Rahul Gandhi is running the show without holding any formal position.
This would be unacceptable for any political party anywhere.
No political party in a modern democracy is run by a leader who does not hold a position in the party organisation.
Do you think the rise and rise of the BJP and its success is mainly because there is no party to oppose it, there is no alternative?
We cannot say that there was no opposition or alternative to the BJP in the states.
Let's look at these five states.
In UP, it was a bipolar competition with the Samajwadi Party emerging as a clear alternative.
Uttarakhand again was bipolar with Congress as the alternative pole of opposition.
In Goa too, the Congress was the principal alternative.
In Manipur also, the Congress was the alternative.
So, we cannot say that there was no alternative in these states.
In fact, there were strong alternatives opposing the BJP in these states, yet, large numbers of voters preferred the incumbent party.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
