'What worked for the BJP were three things: Hindu nationalism, religion and a silent but strong anti-Muslim sentiment.'
What impact will the assembly election results have on the future of India?
"Elections in these states, especially UP, hold immense significance for the future of Indian politics, for the future of Indian democracy, and for the idea of India," Professor Zoya Hasan, Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University and Distinguished Faculty, Council for Social Development, New Delhi, tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier. The concluding segment of a two-part interview:
What might have helped the BJP to win so decisively in UP? Is it Modi magic? UP is one of the poorest states in India. There is poverty, there is unemployment. There was the migrant labour crisis. Still, Yogi was able to pull off such a big win...
In UP, popular discontent was palpable. This was widely reported by the media and those who travelled in the state during the election campaign.
But this dissatisfaction with the government doesn't seem to translate into a substantial vote to defeat a powerful political machine, and its money power, muscle power, strong leader pitch and so on.
The reality is that the BJP government in UP was far from perfect.
Official data demonstrates that UP is performing poorly in terms of the social indicators of development.
It is certainly not like Kerala, West Bengal or Kashmir as the chief minister asserted or rather insisted that he doesn't want UP to become like these states.
And indeed it is not like these states as it is unlikely to achieve the levels of social development achieved by these states.
But paradoxically, huge numbers of voters of the state seem to agree with him.
They do not mind the sluggish social development of the state as long as their emotive concerns are catered to.
At the same time, it is evident that price rise, unemployment, stray cattle were big issues in this election and these were openly discussed and mentioned by voters.
We saw in media reports that people were complaining about joblessness, pension, and price rise and so on.
People were quite vocal about their discontent, but this did not translate into a vote against the BJP.
In fact, they voted for the BJP despite their problems which the government hadn't addressed.
There were clearly other factors at work. Economic dissatisfaction was cancelled out by the perception that the BJP is the protector of the Hindus.
What worked for the BJP were three things: Hindu nationalism, religion and a silent but strong anti-Muslim sentiment.
These three things were combined in the communal campaign frontally expressed by the chief minister in his 80 versus 20 remark which framed the election campaign.
Although multiple registers influence voter choices, this verdict is an endorsement of the communal campaign.
There was much talk about caste versus religion in this election or Mandal versus Kammandal. But again caste was superseded by religion.
Caste politics can only take parties this far in a conjuncture dominated by a politics of religion.
Moreover, z caste driven social alliance has to compete with the BJP's social engineering that caters to caste under the capacious Hindutva umbrella.
Caste autonomy has been seriously questioned by Hindutva.
The most critical point is this: What worked for BJP was religion plus caste.
Finally, what really helped the BJP was the law and order platform.
During the election campaign, there was a poster with two photos of a young man; one wearing a kifaya and the other without the kifaya.
And the caption was, now we have established law and order in the state.
This summed up the political message.
This is how they talked about law and order, which is a code word for Muslims.
That the law and order problem was caused by Muslims?
Is that not obvious?
That BJP retained power in UP in the face of acute dissatisfaction has to be seen in the context of issues it campaigned on.
It was an anti-Muslim campaign where the use of bulldozers to demolish those seen opposing it was its main selling point. That was the law and order platform.
There was a clear attempt to suggest that law and order problems and disturbances were caused by the Muslims.
The law and order rhetoric in UP was explicitly meant to divide citizens into two classes, so to speak; those who are lawful and those who are inherently lawless.
We heard people of UP saying they were unhappy with the economic situation, but they would vote for the BJP for suraksha. They said, they feel the BJP takes care of the law and order situation.
Employment, economic growth, public health, education were not on the agenda of the voters who have restated that these things do not matter to them as much as law and order and putting others in their place.
In short, people voted for the BJP on nationalism and law and order.
You mean Hindu nationalism?
Nationalism encompasses religion, and nowhere more than in UP.
The other big issue is the welfare measures. It is not that India has not had the free ration scheme or free rice and so many other social welfare measures till now.
Do we have a welfare scheme bigger than MGNREGA? The latter is a right and it was not given as largesse by the state as free rations were.
But it was projected as if this was the most welfarist government we have ever had!
It is true that free rations at the time of the pandemic and economic crisis, with little prospect of getting a job, did count for a lot.
But free rations were available only till the 31st March and still, people voted for the government in the hope that it will be extended.
There were major cash transfers too. I am not going to disregard the role of the welfarism of this kind.
But the point is that it doesn't explain the BJP's victory, people voted for extra-economic reasons, which is to say, they voted for the political agenda of this government.
Are the Hindus turning anti-Muslim?
I don't think so. But there is a concerted attempt to promote a politics of hate.
There is an attempt to demonise and stigmatise Muslims, and isolate them to pander to notions of majority victimhood.
Hindus are not instinctively anti-Muslim; but political parties create these sentiments combined with all the other things.
The fact is that Hindu nationalism is a major force in Indian politics today, and its impact is reflected in the elections. We need to acknowledge that.
Will the re-election of Yogi make the minorities in UP feel more insecure?
It will embolden the chief minister who is known to be a polarising figure.
He is known as a tough leader, one who brooks no opposition or dissent or protest.
Can you imagine a leader talking so smugly about bulldozers in the election campaign? Still, people voted for that leader.
What kind of impact will these election victories have on the country? Will the party become more aggressive?
This is a significant victory and a vote of confidence in the BJP.
It is an endorsement of the communal authoritarian regime in UP.
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Elections in these states, especially UP, hold immense significance for the future of Indian politics, for the future of Indian democracy, and for the idea of India
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
