'We Will See A Different BJP In Bengal'

'In West Bengal, the BJP's ideology of Hindutva will be customised to cater to the culture and the cultural imperatives of Bengalis.'

"The BJP is likely to tread cautiously in the first two, three years especially with a packed electoral calendar ahead, from panchayat to municipal to parliamentary elections. Therefore, the BJP will not take any drastic actions," says Dr Samir Kumar Das, professor of political science and Director, Institute of Foreign Policy Studies at the University of Calcutta.

"The verdict is a no confidence in the TMC's performance. A negative vote. Many voters may not have been fully convinced about the alternative, but they were clear about their dissatisfaction with the incumbent -- and there was no other alternative, but the BJP," Dr Das tells Rediff's Archana Masih discussing the Bengal verdict, the TMC's future and why the BJP will function differently in Bengal compared to the Hindi heartland.

How do you read the BJP's victory in Bengal?

The beauty behind this sweep is that people did it without disclosing their political intent. A silent upsurge has taken place.

Voters were tight-lipped. They kept their choices close to their chests. The electorate is very mature and that's the beauty of Indian democracy.

You may not agree with the people's verdict, but you have to accept it.

What do you see as the future road ahead for the TMC in Bengal?

The TMC would have to be very careful about consolidating its party base. Many leaders, particularly middle-rung leaders, might join the BJP. Whenever the next opportunity arises, they will be tempted to rock the boat and jump into the other camp.

TMC is not a classic cadre-based political party. Its identity is heavily dependent on one charismatic leader. The absence of a middle-rung leadership cannot be ignored.

Abhishek Banerjee's name inevitable comes up. He already plays a key role in the party, but the real question is whether he is acceptable across the party's different power centres in the absence of Mamata Banerjee.

There is also a possibility -- however speculative -- that the party may split. That said, one must not forget that Mamata Banerjee has always been a fighter.

She has built her political career on resilience and has been most effective in Opposition rather than in government, as the past experience shows.

So she might bounce back, and perform well as the Opposition. Historically, she has had the ability to mobilise support and may be able to stabilise and consolidate her party for the next election in 2031.

Who do you see as the front runners for chief minister?

This is an election where probably for the first time the BJP has come across as a homogeneous, unified force in the state. Credit for this to a large extent goes to state leaders like Samik Babu [Bhattacharya] who has been able to bring different strands of the party together.

There are several contenders for CM. For instance, Suvendu Adhikari who has defeated Mamata Banerjee and has a strong political presence.

Swapan Dasgupta?

There is also Swapan Dasgupta who has a very different profile -- he is deeply intellectual, articulate and very learned, but then politics is not always for learned men.

'The principle that voting right is the inalienable right of a citizen has been kept in abeyance'

What are your takeaways from the verdict in Bengal?

First, the principle that voting right is the inalienable right of a citizen has been kept in abeyance. The names which have gone to tribunals have not been decided yet, and those cases are pending.

In other words, a section of people have been disenfranchised who could be legitimate citizens. For instance, in constituencies where the margin of victory is narrower than the number of pending cases, it raises a valid question: Could the outcome have been different if these individuals had not been struck off the roles?

Although the Supreme Court has been saying that these names have not been permanently struck off and can be reincorporated, but my view is that at least for the 2026 assembly election, they lost their right to vote and were excluded from the electoral process.

Secondly, the verdict is a no confidence in the TMC's performance. A negative vote. Many voters may not have been fully convinced about the alternative, but they were clear about their dissatisfaction with the incumbent -- and there was no other alternative, but the BJP.

This suggests that people are still confused about the future direction of the new government. The BJP will face challenges because people have huge expectations.

The BJP is likely to tread cautiously in the first two, three years especially with a packed electoral calendar ahead, from panchayat to municipal to parliamentary elections.

Therefore, the BJP will not take any drastic actions.

In West Bengal, the BJP's ideology of Hindutva will be customised to cater to the culture and the cultural imperatives of the Bengalis.

We are going to see a different BJP in Bengal. Not the kind of BJP, for instance, in the Hindi heartland.

Thirdly, in West Bengal, the Muslim vote continues to remain consolidated behind the TMC. At the same time, the BJP has managed to consolidate Hindu votes across large parts of the state -- and that communal division will become sharper probably in future.

The consolidation of the Muslim vote behind TMC did not quite hold this time. Sections of that vote have fragmented, with some voting for the Left and the Congress.

Two issues actually hurt the Muslims.

One, was the Waqf matter. Initially the chief minister promised she would oppose the bill, but she eventually agreed to implement the Act which made them feel that she did not keep her promise.

The TMC is also accused of following soft Hindutva. Even in the 2021 elections, Mamata Banerjee reportedly visited at least 140 temples in Nandigram constituency, which she eventually lost.

Between 2021 and 2026, she was instrumental in building many temples, two of which are mega temples in response to the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.

She wanted to pull some Hindu votes; this, on the other hand, alienated the Muslims. This did not bring a shift in Hindu votes either for the TMC.

Many of those Muslim votes have gone to the Left and Congress, but without any avail.

Another factor was Humayun Kabir's Aam Janata Party.

Although they won two seats in one particular district of central Bengal, their presence split some Muslim votes.

This is also one of the reasons why, for instance, the TMC lost. They alienated both Muslims in particular constituencies, and also the Hindus on the other.

'BJP will have to demonstrate that it has roots in Bengali culture'

Could you elaborate why the BJP will function differently in Bengal?

The 2026 state assembly election in West Bengal was fought on Bengali identity and nationalism.

The BJP has been accused of imposing an alien culture on Bengal. The TMC framed it as party that would impose an outside culture in Bengal -- raising concerns about mother tongue and food habits with the fear that the BJP will impose a ban on eating fish and meat.

The BJP was accused of being a party which did not know Bengali culture.

Now that they have won, the BJP will have to demonstrate that it has roots in Bengali culture.

Take language, for instance. Now that there is a 'double engine sarkar', a move like introducing Bengali as a medium of writing the all-India competitive examinations would carry practical and symbolic weight.

It would send a message that the BJP has not forgotten Bengali candidates and at the same time boost the party's image.

There may be many other gestures by which it can actually identify with Bengali language and culture to bridge the cultural gap that many voters believe exists.

• Battle For 5 States

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff