'We Shouldn't Expect Immediate Results With China'

'If China shows greater concerns for Indian interests, ties could improve. Otherwise, the thaw could be short-lived.'

"The next step in normalisation of the LAC is the withdrawal of 50,000 soldiers deployed along the LAC. However, this will require comprehensive negotiations and verifiable steps. I do not think that the withdrawal will happen in one go," says former Northern Army Commander Lieutenant General Deependra Singh Hooda (retd), the senior-most officer in charge of planning and executing the surgical strikes across the Line of Control in September 2016.

"These are the new realities, and any talk of status quo ante is impractical. Negotiations should take this into account and find ways to keep the LAC peaceful through fresh mechanisms and protocols for LAC management," the general tells Rediff's Archana Masih.

India and China have a difficult and complex relationship which was in cold freeze since the Galwan conflict in 2020.
Given the historical tensions and China's more recent support of Pakistan against India during Operation Sindoor, can the current diplomatic thaw be sustained?

Sustaining the diplomatic thaw will require more visible actions from the Chinese side.

It is all well to say in statements that 'India and China are partners, not rivals'. However, many of the actions taken in the recent past, including support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, export bans on critical items like rare earth magnets, fertilisers, and advanced machinery, attempts to increase influence in South Asia, all point towards elements of rivalry.

If China shows greater concerns for Indian interests, ties could improve. Otherwise, the thaw could be short-lived.

Can India trust China going forward, especially when it comes to China's unflinching support of Pakistan against India?

Both the actions in 2020 along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh and the military support to Pakistan have eroded trust.

Restoring this trust is a long-drawn process and we should not expect immediate results.

However, this does not mean that we adopt an openly hostile attitude. It is also in our national interest that the borders remain peaceful, that we find a solution to the completely one-sided trade with China, that we manage our relationship with a country that is a significant economic and military power.

We should therefore adopt a realistic, clear-eyed approach keeping our interests in mind.

Xi Jinping asserted that the border issue should not define overall China-India relations. How can normal relations be achieved when de-escalation remains incomplete, restrictions on Indian troop patrols continue, and the tragic loss of 20 soldiers still looms large?

There is a fundamental difference in how the two countries view the border issue.

While China says that the border issue should not define overall bilateral relations, India says that peace and tranquillity at the border are crucial for the development of relations.

I think both countries will stick to their respective stance.

Realistically, we are not immediately looking for a complete normalisation of relations, but focused on finding ways to keep the border calm and enhance the people-to-people contacts through direct flights, resumption of Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra etc.

Let us see how this progresses before taking an unduly optimistic or pessimistic tone.

What are your expectations regarding the withdrawal of the 50,000 troops currently deployed along the LAC? Do you believe ongoing negotiations will lead to de-induction and the restoration of Indian patrols in areas they previously had access to?

The next step in normalisation of the LAC is the withdrawal of 50,000 soldiers deployed along the LAC. However, this will require comprehensive negotiations and verifiable steps.

I do not think that the withdrawal will happen in one go. What can be expected is a gradual reduction of forces, with India keeping sufficient forces in place based on their threat analysis and the need to strongly guard the LAC.

It is very unlikely that force levels will go back to the pre-2020 number of troops.

The border has been relatively quiet in recent months -- does the resumption of broader bilateral engagement, including WMCC (Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs) talks, open the possibility of a return to the status quo ante along the LAC?

There is no returning to the status quo ante. The situation along the LAC today is different from what had existed prior to 2020.

Buffer zones have been created, patrolling arrangements are new, confidence building measures and protocols have to be reworked, and deployment of forces has been enhanced.

These are the new realities, and any talk of status quo ante is impractical. Negotiations should take this into account and find ways to keep the LAC peaceful through fresh mechanisms and protocols for LAC management.

Does the decision to establish an 'expert group' to explore an 'early harvest' on boundary delimitation signal a shift from India's earlier stance favouring a comprehensive resolution, or can this staged approach be seen as a pragmatic step toward building momentum for resolving broader, more complex issues?

Boundary delimitation is a very complex issue. The positions of both sides are so vastly different that any 'early harvest' is unlikely.

Nevertheless, the establishment of an expert group is a positive step. We still do not have all the details of how the expert group would carry out its task, but at least it is a move forward.

What challenges persist for the Indian Army along the border with China? What key factors should the Indian military remain most cautious about in the current environment?

An unsettled border poses enduring challenges and demands uncompromising vigilance.

The fact that much of the border lies along the Himalayan watershed exacts a high toll on both humans and equipment.

Facing us is a very capable military with excellent infrastructure to support its operations. We need to rapidly improve the infrastructure on our side, put in place an effective surveillance network, and build our capabilities to quickly respond to any attempts by the Chinese to change the status quo along the LAC.