'Trump will absolutely back New Delhi on its position that Pakistan must do more to crack down on terrorists that threaten India.'
"Trump is a businessman, and personal relationships are critical for him. He and Modi both emphasise the importance of personal diplomacy, and given that they get along so well, this will bode well for the partnership," says Dr Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.
"It can also provide insulation against the tension points that will invariably crop up."
A leading expert on India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and their relations with the United States, Dr Kugelman discusses what the Trump White House means for India with Rediff.com's Archana Masih.
Knowing Trump's unpredictability, what should India be cautious of while dealing with Trump?
Given the strength of the relationship and Trump's strong commitment to furthering partnership, there's little reason to believe that his unpredictability could cause problems for US-India relations.
In effect, any unexpected decision or policy is unlikely to be the type of shock that could badly impact the partnership.
Even if Trump were to reach an understanding with Xi that de-escalates competition with Beijing, the US-India relationship would still remain strong, given all the areas of cooperation that play out on separate tracks from the China-related strategic partnership.
The list of surprising things that Trump could hypothetically do that actually would deal blows to US-India relations -- forging a new military alliance with Pakistan, imposing trade sanctions on India, eliminating or drastically reducing certain types of visas -- are rather far-fetched, and even for someone known for being unpredictable.
The worst possible case of Trump's unpredictability impacting the relationship is if he suddenly makes an undiplomatic comment at an unfortunate time -- such as slamming India's air quality while doing a joint press conference in New Delhi with Modi. But, while awkward in the moment, such things are quickly forgotten.
Both Trump and Modi share a warm personal relationship. Do you reckon this will help in cementing the relationship in the next four years?
It will certainly be helpful for the partnership. Presidents Obama and Biden valued their personal relationships with Modi (and there was much talk of the Obama-Modi 'bromance'), but it's clear that there wasn't the same chemistry between them -- perhaps because of divergent world views and politics -- that there is between Trump and Modi.
Trump is a businessman, and personal relationships are critical for him. He and Modi both emphasise the importance of personal diplomacy, and given that they get along so well, this will bode well for the partnership.
It can also provide insulation against the tension points that will invariably crop up.
How will Trump deal with Pakistan -- and what bearing will this have on India's concern for terrorism arising from Pakistan being played out on Indian soil?
Interestingly, the question of Trump's approach to Pakistan has become a cause celebre in Islamabad since his election victory: Many supporters of Imran Khan hope or believe that Trump will take a tough line on the Pakistani military and pressure it to release Khan.
It's a view that's rooted in the misplaced sense of importance that many Pakistanis think their country occupies in the world. But it's likely also rooted in the fact that when president the first time, Trump met with Khan several times and invited him to a White House meeting in Washington.
He did this because he wanted Khan to help the US convene talks with the Taliban to negotiate the withdrawal from Afghanistan. But many Pakistanis actually think this reflects how Trump, with his contempt for the 'deep state', will want to try to help his old friend Khan and take on those that are repressing him and his supporters.
This narrative has become so prevalent in recent days that senior Pakistani officials have put out statements indicating that Trump is not about to take a stand on the Khan issue.
The most likely scenario for US-Pakistan ties under Trump is much more boring than what all the speculation is saying. We're likely to see continuity with the Biden administration policy -- one that emphasises a cordial relationship with scaled-back goals and interests, compared to the years when the US was in Afghanistan.
Trump likely won't want to partner with Pakistan on climate change mitigation, as Biden did, but he's likely to support trade and investment cooperation (assuming there is some economic stabilisation in Pakistan).
He may also be interested in maintaining a periodic counterterrorism dialogue that focuses in part on countering Islamic State -- a group that Trump has often claimed credit for curbing.
Trump will absolutely back New Delhi on its position that Pakistan must do more to crack down on terrorists that threaten India.
Do you think Trump can bring an end to the war in Ukraine and Gaza? Will he seek India's help in finding a resolution?
Despite Trump's apparent affinities for Netanyahu and Putin, and despite how much he would want to be associated with helping end those two awful wars, it's hard to imagine those two leaders winding down their wars simply because Trump pressures them to do so.
They have (in their minds) rock-solid incentives for waging them, and they're unlikely to be swayed by a third-party intermediary.
Additionally, it's unclear that Trump would have the requisite leverage with all the belligerents -- the Israelis, the Palestinians, the Russians, and the Ukrainians -- to help negotiate an end to the war. He doesn't have solid relationships with Zelenskyy or Hamas.
I do think he would welcome any offer by India to help end the war in Ukraine -- if India is prepared to make that offer (which I doubt it will be unless both Russia and Ukraine seek its mediation, which is unlikely).
It's striking that Trump's view on the war in Ukraine is nearly identical to that of India: He refuses to criticise the Russians, he declines to say who he wants to win the war, but he often emphasises the importance of ending the war.
With the Gaza war, Trump has actually been quite ambiguous in his messaging (which made good political sense on the campaign trail): He's said he wants Israel to finish the job.
That could be interpreted to mean that he wants Israel to escalate its war to try to get a faster victory, or it could be interpreted to mean that Israel needs to wrap up and negotiate an end to the conflict.
When it comes to Trump's Middle East policy, India's bigger concern may well be less Trump's approach to Israel and more his approach to Iran. He's likely to take a maximalist hardline position on Tehran, which risks further deepening US-Iran tensions with potential impacts that could add to instability in the Middle East.
For India, which likely views the Middle East as the most strategically significant region outside the Indo Pacific because of its energy and trade interests and the many Indian workers there, that wouldn't be a good thing.
What bearing will the Trump administration have on the investigation of the alleged plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Panun on American soil? Or will relations continue to be strained on this particular issue?
I recognise that many in India will hope and believe that this will be less of a tension point with Trump in power, given that he shares India's concerns about terrorist threats and won't want to pressure it about its internal security policies. That may be true to an extent, but I don't think the Pannun issue will go away with Trump in office.
It's hard to imagine Trump simply ignoring a case of another country allegedly orchestrating an assassination plot targeting a US citizen in New York City, Trump's hometown.
Given his nationalist politics, it's hard to believe him just shrugging that off.
Trump will likely make the Pannun case less of an issue in the bilateral relationship -- that is, his administration may not bring it up repeatedly in high-level engagements with New Delhi, as the Biden administration has. But I imagine the investigation will continue, and Trump could well bring attention to the allegation -- even if infrequently -- in his public messaging.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
