'This War Can Easily Go On For Months Longer'

'Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.'

As we enter the final days of the two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran that has halted a war that began on February 28, Washington and Tehran remain poles apart on what they view as a comprehensive agreement.

Will the ceasefire continue? Will the peace talks between Iran and the United States resume after they failed in Islamabad last week?

Tom Cooper, an Austrian aerial warfare analyst and historian who writes on small, little-known air forces and conflicts, and is a specialist in Middle Eastern air forces and those in Africa and Asia, tells Rediff's Swarupa Dutt that with protagonists like Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the world cannot be sure whether a nuclear threat is simply a threat.

"Iran is not fighting as a conventional military power, but as a guerrilla force (just with missiles and UAVs). This means that an entirely different set of rules is valid for this war. Through this kind of warfare, the IRGC-regime is making the cost of war so astronomically high that the USA and its Gulf-Arab allies cannot sustain it," Mr Cooper says in the concluding part of two-part interview.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Netanyahu Has Infiltrated Trump's Cabinet'

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said it remains 'not clear' what further objectives need to be achieved in Iran, following claims by US President Donald Trump that Tehran's military capabilities have been significantly degraded.
What is Trump's aim/goal in this war?

Trump has no own goals for this war. Nor for Iran. Except for enriching himself/his clan, privately, of course.

Is the Israel goal for Iran the same as it is for Gaza? Complete annihilation, genocide and occupation of land and expansionism?

At least something similar like breaking up Iran into ungovernable statelets that are easy to control.

Trump says the war will end in 2-3 weeks. What does that mean militarily? Could you outline the possible scenario in a behind-the-lines strategy? Is this war a drone war or a naval battle or an aerial war?

I'm never making any kind of predictions. I can only add that every time one of Trump's ultimatums is about to expire, two things happen: Israel launches yet another (or several) provocations, and Trump then extends the ultimatum.

Iran has been heavily bombed. Do you think they have enough military capabilities to the turn the tide in their favour?
They have released images of hundreds of drones in their arsenal, but beyond drones what is it they have that could be a gamechanger?

In military sense, Iran cannot 'defeat' the US-Israel-UAE-coalition. However, Iran is not even trying to do so.

It is not fighting as a conventional military power, but as a guerrilla force (just with missiles and UAVs). This means that an entirely different set of rules is valid for this war. Principal between these is: As long as Iran is fighting, it's winning (because any guerrilla is winning as long as it's around and fighting).

Through this kind of warfare, the IRGC-regime is making the cost of war so astronomically high that the USA and its Gulf-Arab allies cannot sustain it.

Iran can do so because the US-Israel-UAE alliance have proven incapable of destroying its major underground military facilities. These are housing thousands of ballistic missiles and attack-drones. As long as these are intact, Iran can clear the rubble at the entrances to such facilities, pull out missiles and attack-UAVs, and continue striking selected targets.

'Complete destruction of Kharg from the air is next to impossible'

Israeli Opposition leader Yair Lapid recently said that destroying the Kharg terminal would 'cripple Iran's economy and topple the regime'. But can that only be done if the US sends in troops?
Israel has said it won't be sending troops. Can Kharg island simply be bombed out of existence without ground troops?

A complete destruction of Kharg from the air is next to impossible because the facilities there are much too massive.

Thus, yes: That would require 'boots on the ground'.

There is no way Israel would ever agree to send its own troops there -- as long as there is a US president around whom the Israelis can convince to do so with US troops.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hinted at the potential for significant disruption and questioned the extent of the world's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
Is Iran looking at controlling Bab el-Mandab with the Houthis?

Iran is not looking to do so, but can exercise asymmetric control over the Bab el-Mandeb through the Houthis.

And therefore is the US and Israel looking at controlling the Hormuz Strait and the Bab al-Mandab strait?

Not really to control either, but to have the right of free passage there.

'USA failed to force Israel to sign the NPT'

Israel is nuclear ambiguous or opaque. It is the only country in the Middle East that is believed to have nuclear weapons and in fact is a non-party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
How was this allowed to happen? And is it fair on the Middle East nations.

Of course it's unfair. It happened with near-open support of the USA and France (plus some help by other countries, including Great Britain, South Africa etc), back in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

In the late 1960s, the USA also failed to force Israel to sign the NPT.

And yes, Israel has a non-declared nuclear arsenal -- as revealed by photographs and documentation published by Mordechai Vanunu, in 1986.

War-ceasefire-negotiation-war has been the US stance vis-a-vis Iran since June last year. How can Iran ensure peace without agreeing to the debilitating and humiliating 15-point guarantees that US has asked for?
And if it does agree to Trump's guarantees, will that work towards the building of a new Iran like the Versailles Treaty did for Germany.

Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.

When do you hazard a guess that the war will end?

With this affair involving four narcissistic and extremist dictatorships, this can easily go on for months longer.

• THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff