'What is worrying other parties is those 12-16 year olds who come for his meetings will cross 18 in the next election. And they will vote for him, and then his vote bank will double.'
'In that case, he will be a very serious player! This is the real scare for other political parties.'
It is no secret that popular Tamil movie star Vijay is hoping to become the next MGR or Jayalalithaa.
MGR and Jayalalithaa had the backing of a strong political party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham. Vijay floated a new party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, converted his fan clubs into party offices and his fans into party cadre.
Will the September 27 tragedy in Karur halt Vijay's political momentum?
Senior Journalist R Rangaraj tracked MGR and Jayalalithaa's political careers, first as the Tamil Nadu correspondent for the Press Trust of India and then as the Chennai bureau chief for the Indian Express newspaper.
"If the AIADMK doesn't win this time, the party will fade away. Then, some may move to the DMK, and some may move to Vijay's party... If Vijay's party starts looking at a wider section of people and not just the youth, it can be a strong number 2," Mr. Rangaraj tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier in the concluding segment of the two-part interview.
- Part 1 of the Interview: 'Vijay Could Become No. 2 In Tamil Nadu'
Do you think the Karur tragedy exposed Vijay's inexperience in politics and lack of disciplined cadre in the party?
The fear of a stampede was always there even when MGR used to go for campaigns.
Rajnikanth, who was very worried all the time about stampedes, consciously participated in government organised functions, where he was sure of a large police presence.
In the case of Vijay, he is comparatively new to this. He wants big crowds but doesn't realise big crowds can become uncontrollable, like what happened in Karur.
In small places like Karur, even the slightest disturbance can cause a calamity.
We saw what happened to Allu Arjun's movie premiere.
Vijay should have learnt from that incident. If you look at the video, you can see the stampede happening and people falling over each other when Vijay was speaking. But he carried on as if nothing was happening. It was as if he ignored the initial warnings.
Due to lack of political experience?
Or he didn't care. The warning signs were there. He was out to prove to the other political parties that he got massive crowds and crowd frenzy, more than anybody else even though they were unmanageable.
He went overboard. He could have stopped his speech when he saw the early signs. He should have either gone away and come back once order was restored, or told people to remain calm and stay put where they are.
But he didn't handle the situation properly.
Then instead of visiting the victims, he went from there to Chennai.
Again, does that not show his political inexperience? An experienced political leader would have stayed back and visited the victims...
That shows he was worried that the anger of people would be directed towards him.
Now, he has announced compensation and plans to visit the victims in their homes.
This incident has definitely put a brake on his campaign.
The momentum he had gained will be lost. It will be difficult for him to start all over again.
Of course, he would start his campaign soon, but it won't be the same again.
The sheen is off Vijay charisma. It has taken a beating. That will be a worry factor for him.
Do you feel this will affect his image as a political leader?
Yes. He was on the rise. The momentum was with him, and if he had carried on the same way for another 2-3 months, many of the AIADMK votes would have got transferred to his party, the TVK.
The AIADMK's fortunes were dipping, and the vote for change and those who want an alternative would have seen Vijay as a better alternative than EPS (AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami).
Was he in a position to upset the DMK?
We don't know whether he would have upset the DMK, but we know that in the weeks to come, it might have been a contest between the DMK and the TVK.
He was growing and the momentum was with him. He would have been a close contender.
Vijay's support base was largely the youth, and their plan was that every youth should bring at least one person from his family to vote for Vijay. And the youngsters were working on the plan to see him as the person to turn to, for the vote for change.
If the plan of getting one extra vote from each house had worked, he would have been a serious contender.
Now, there is a big dent on the plan not just because of the tragedy. Now, people may think twice before going to attend his campaigns.
Earlier, you spoke about how MGR worked decades for the DMK, an established political party and later converted his fan clubs to party units.
On the other hand, Vijay started a new party and converted his fans to party cadre.
How difficult will this be for Vijay without a foundation to start something new and take on the established political parties?
It is problematic. I would compare this what Vijayakanth did when he started his political party, the DMDK.
He also had fan clubs but he took time to build a political party and to convert film fans associations into party.
He had to do this when Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa were still around. He had to take people away from those parties and vote for him. It is not easy. Had he maintained good health, he would have made an impact even in 2016.
His existing vote bank was lost, and he could manage only 1% to 1.5% in the 2016 election.
But in 2011, he became very crucial when he teamed up with Jayalalithaa and became a winning alliance with 8% to 11% vote share. Jayalalithaa went for the alliance when she felt that Vijayakanth was causing a dent in the AIADMK votes.
In the case of Vijay, he doesn't want to team up with anyone. He feels his message will be lost then. He wants to be seen as an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK. If he goes for an alliance now, even his fans will not like it. His fans see him only as a chief minister candidate and not anything less.
Vijay also wants to be the CM candidate only. So he will go all out in this election.
The only question is whether he can get past the 30%-35% vote share. He has to overtake the DMK and AIADMK in constituencies and win the seats.
To win an election, the party has to cross 30%-35% in a constituency. Getting 15%-20% is not enough. That's why you need some political parties as your alliance for another 10%.
Unlike Kamal Hassan who first contested the Lok Sabha election and lost everywhere, Vijay tested the local body elections by fielding independent candidates from his film fans association. It was like testing the waters.
And many of these independent candidates won.
What kind of future do you see for Vijay as a political leader?
He may do well in future.
At the moment, it may look otherwise. He may get 15% votes now.
What is worrying other parties is those 12-16 year olds who come for his meetings will cross 18 in the next election. And they will vote for him, and then his vote bank will double. In that case, he will be a very serious player! This is the real scare for other political parties.
IMAGE: R RangarajYou mean he will not fade away?
He will not fade away.
If he remains active in politics, he can be a strong number two.
Because he is from the minority community, he will have the backing of the community which votes almost en masse to the DMK-led front now.
The AIADMK lacks a charismatic leader, and if Vijay continues the Dravidian style of politics, people will start looking at Vijay as an alternative and a better bet if you want to defeat the DMK.
If Vijay's party starts looking at a wider section of people and not just the youth, it can be a strong number 2.
Even now, till the Karur tragedy, he was a strong contender.
See, the public has a short memory, and the media, even less.
So, if he resumes his campaign after a couple of months, and present himself as an alternative, it is possible that some of the votes from the AIADMK alliance may shift to him.
If that happens, the AIADMK will be pushed out slowly.
If the AIADMK doesn't win this time, the party will fade away.
Then, some may move to the DMK, and some may move to Vijay's party. And a new party always attracts second and third rung leaders.
No, Vijay will not fade away from Tamil Nadu politics.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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