'The tally of Muslim MLAs has increased. They know they can make themselves count in the electoral system.'
"From 2014 onwards, even the secular parties have gradually stopped talking about Muslims. Hence, the Muslims had receded into a sort of irrelevance in politics. But in this election, they strongly consolidated their vote behind the Samajwadi Party and made their presence felt," Dr Prashant Trivedi of the Giri Institute of Social Development, a Lucknow-based research institute, tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih in the concluding part of an interview on the electoral outcome in Uttar Pradesh.
How do you see this election impacting the general election?
What happens in 2024 will depend upon the political climate leading to the general election which is two years from now. The 2024 election can't be based on the results of five assembly election results.
One cannot predict what political developments will take place, what issues will emerge and what political equations will be formed by 2024.
2024 cannot be predicted based on the result of the 2022 assembly elections. But, yes, the clamour that could have been witnessed if the BJP had lost the UP election has seen a temporary break due to the win.
The Congress has been further marginalised. What do you see as the future of the Gandhis and the party?
No Congress leader from Nehru to Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao or Dr Manmohan Singh has ever faced a leader of the size of Narendra Modi.
Rahul and Priyanka face a monumental challenge.
They are good at raising issues, but in UP the Congress does not have an organisational structure. They were not even seen as contenders in the assembly elections and hence were further overlooked by the voters.
Notwithstanding, the Congress will be a player during the parliamentary election. Rahul and Priyanka will have to play a role in offering a criticism of the government. They are the most visible critiques of government policies, but have failed to convert the criticism into votes for their party. They will be one among many players in the 2024 elections.
Was there anything that surprised you about the election results?
The BJP dominated the election, but I did not expect such a gap between the SP and BJP.
The BJP won most seats by a narrow margin. Their performance tally surpassed their own expectations.
Secondly, I did not expect Mayawati's core voters to shift to other parties.
What would be the predominant thought in the Muslim mind post the election?
The Muslims have come back in the political arena of UP with a bang -- this indicates the positive aspect of the democratic system.
From 2014 onwards, even the secular parties have gradually stopped talking about Muslims. Hence, the Muslims had receded into a sort of irrelevance in politics. But in this election, they strongly consolidated their vote behind the Samajwadi Party and made their presence felt.
Even though the party of their choice has lost the election, the tally of Muslim MLAs has increased to 34. Hence, I don't think Muslims are disappointed. They know that they can make themselves count in the electoral system.
Most Muslim leaders who were targeted by the BJP government in the last five years have won.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
