What Will Xi Jinping Do Next With All That Power?

'For the first time in a hundred years, the army has been taken out of the political equation. And for the first time ever, there is only one man who calls the shots. Not even Mao had this kind of power.'

On January 24, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Chinese Communist party, stunned the People's Republic of China by purging General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission.

Zhang -- a long-time associate of Xi -- was accused of undermining the leadership structure of the Communist party among other crimes; The Wall Street Journal newspaper even claimed that Zhang had passed Chinese nuclear secrets to the Americans. There were also rumours that Zhang had led an unsuccessful coup against Xi.

What really happened? Why did Xi turn on Zhang, who he has known almost all his life since their fathers Xi Zhongxun and General Zhang Zongxun served in the Chinese Communist party under Mao Zedong? Where does Xi's purges of senior officers leave the People's Liberation Army?

We asked Francesco Sisci, the well respected Italian Sinologist who has tracked events and personalities in the Chinese Communist party for over 30 years, for his assessment of the Zhang Purge and its aftermath.

"What will happen with Xi's power we don't know because these times are extremely volatile. There is mounting tensions around China. Both Japan and Thailand -- two very important neighbouring countries for China -- have elected new governments who are conservative and ready to stand up to China."

"We have a summit with US President Donald Trump in April and we don't know what will come out of it. We don't know if Russia can continue fighting for one more year (in Ukraine) or for how long. The situation is sensitive. Xi Jinping is a man who follows events closely and may change his mind on (invading) Taiwan," Dr Sisci, the first foreigner admitted to the graduate school of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, tells Nikhil Lakshman/Rediff.

What could have provoked Xi Jinping's purge of General Zhang Youxia?
Could General Zhang have been rallying PLA forces, ala Lin Biao (Mao Zedong's heir apparent who tried unsuccessfully to mount a coup against Mao in 1971) as you predicted last October, to stall Xi Jinping's plan to emasculate the PLA?
Could hints at a coup attempt last December be actually rooted in truth?

I don't have any first-hand information, but just following the news reports, I think something like the following has happened over the past three years.

It all started with the Chinese surveillance balloon floating over a military base in the United States.

The Chinese first underestimated the event while the Americans freaked out because they have been historically hit by two surprise attacks, one with Pearl Harbor (in December 1941) and the other with 9/11 (in 2001).

So, the first reaction was: What is happening? Are the Chinese doing something crazy?

There were rumours that the American military tried to call the Chinese. The Chinese military didn't respond, didn't know what happened and underestimated the whole thing.

Eventually the (then United States) secretary of state (Antony Blinken) canceled a scheduled visit to China.

President Xi Jinping then realised it was something much more serious and started an investigation into what was this balloon programme which falls under the purview of the (People's Liberation Army's) Rocket Department.

He investigated the Rocket Department and found out that much of the weapons were not kept up to standards. Much money was siphoned out and there was widespread corruption that undermined the capabilities of the military.

And then he started a purge.

But in late 2023, early 2024, he must have realised that maybe this kind of corruption was not limited to the Rocket Department but it was a widespread habit all over the military so he investigated other military departments.

The Chinese military is or was notorious for its widespread corruption so they must have fretted about it. And maybe some people started thinking it's time to set up a coup, a mutiny, and we get rid of Xi Jinping.

In 2024, the rest of the army felt in danger and started hatching a plan against Xi Jinping. It's not easy to move the army and to topple the top leader, but Xi Jinping and other leaders wanted the army to take action against Taiwan.

Maybe somebody thought this could be a good excuse to pursue other goals, so they would prepare for an invasion. They would actually start an invasion.

The invasion could fail, and since the army was mobilised, the political leaders were delegitimised, they would move against Xi Jinping, get rid of him, and carry on with their corrupt businesses.

But to mobilise the army, to move troops on Zhongnanhai (where the Chinese Communist leaders live in Beijing) and Beijing, is not easy.

In 2025 Xi Jinping got wind of it, started looking into it and therefore he went on to purge the rest of the military.

In October, General Zhang Youxia (then the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission) was still in charge of the military, I surmised that he would be moved aside, arrested also, because according to Chinese logic you cannot have the whole military guilty of corruption but its top leader innocent. So I guessed Zhang would be taken out too.

Now the reality is that Xi Jinping has more control over the army than any other leader of Communist China before him, and we don't know what he will do with all this power.

Definitely, this is a big political change because for a hundred years the army was the backbone, the king maker of the (Communist) party and not the other way around.

And now the army is firmly under control of the party, under the control of the top leader, Xi Jinping.

At the end of the day Xi Jinping has control over the military -- undisputed and unprecedented since the founding of the party. It's not clear what he will do with it and where he will lead the army and the party, but definitely this puts him in a very good position to organise the 2027 party congress.

As an observer of Chinese Communist politics for over 30 years, do you believe the Zhang Purge represents a tectonic movement in the Xi Jinping era?
Do you believe Xi's purge of PLA personnel over the years was rooted in a genuine desire to cleanse the PLA of corruption? Or was to remove any challengers to his rule?
As a personality, do you believe Xi Jinping is closer to Mao? Suspicious, paranoid, always on the lookout for enemies, real and imagined?

The party is secretive. It's not an open democracy. Therefore, everything is hidden, everything is a conspiracy and a plot. Therefore, Chinese leaders, by nature of the party organisation, the organisation where they work, are paranoid.

Is Xi Jinping more paranoid than Mao or was Mao more paranoid than Xi Jinping? I would say the paranoia is different because the party and the era are different.

Everybody who gets to the top in this system, he can survive only through calibrated paranoia. Now, the key thing here is calibrated, and it's hard to calibrate paranoia once you have it. But if you don't do it, then paranoia eats you up.

So far, according to the results, Xi Jinping was right. Let's see what happens next.

In that sense, would you say the Xi era is a complete reversal from the rather placid Jiang Zemin-Hu Jintao eras?
Is this paranoid approach provoked by the early challenge posed by Bo Xilai and Zhong Yongkang to Xi Jinping's leadership?
Has the Zhang purge cleared the way for Xi to have his way at next year's party Congress? Or could we still expect surprises between now and 2027?

I would say that now Xi Jinping has a lot of power. However we don't know what he will do with this power and what he will choose for 2027. Definitely, no other people have much bargaining leverage with him and he could be free to do as he pleases.

But having said that, I think we could be up for big surprises in 2027 which is two years away. These are extremely volatile times.

Is Xi Jinping insulated from any further challenges to his authority? Who are his rivals in the Communist party that we know of?

I think he has now eliminated all his rivals. But that doesn't mean that everybody will follow him blindly. To rule, Xi Jinping needs true loyalty. That is, people who will tell him and talk to him when he's wrong, but also be next to him in times of difficulties.

We don't know who are the people next to him. But if we could give him advice, I would say trust the people who talk to you in a straightforward manner, not the people who always say yes.

Still, I guess it's difficult to be straightforward in China with Xi Jinping.

Would his rivals in the Communist party settle for a dilution of his authority, a pledge to appoint a successor than stay in power for the duration of his life rather than his ouster from power?

My guess is that now all of Xi Jinping's rivals have been sidelined. It would be very hard for them to mount a real challenge to his rule now.

What will happen with his power we don't know because these times are extremely volatile. There is mounting tensions around China.

Both Japan and Thailand -- two very important neighbouring countries for China -- have elected new governments who are conservative and ready to stand up to China.

We have a summit with US President Donald Trump in April and we don't know what will come out of it. We don't know if Russia can continue fighting for one more year (in Ukraine) or for how long. But definitely, Russia in its useless fight in Ukraine is draining China's resources and political credibility in Europe, another important market for China.

The situation is sensitive. Xi Jinping is a man who follows events closely and may change his mind on Taiwan. I would say that with the election of (Japanese) Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in the wake of her statement about Taiwan, the short-term fate of Taiwan is quite strong.

The new conservative governments in Japan and Thailand could also start pushing other governments in Asia to stand up to China and that could complicate the international environment around China.

Where do you see Chinese Communist politics headed in the next 24 months? Could Xi risk an invasion of Taiwan and a confrontation with an unpredictable Donald Trump if it means enhancing his popularity and consolidating his position in Beijing?

A few months ago, we wouldn't imagine that Japan would elect a conservative leader pushing the country in a more confrontational stand to China, and neither would Thailand. And yet, it happened. That means that things are very unpredictable.

First of all, we must wait for two events:

1. The April meeting between Xi and Trump. What will come out of it?

At first, I thought this meeting would just be a lukewarm handshake, but possibly there would be more because Trump could come up with quite a strong hand with an agreement with allies on rare earths production.

With victories in Venezuela and possibly with something happening in Iran too that could change the outcome of the summit.

2. The midterm elections (in the US in November). Although Donald Trump's foreign policies should not be challenged, it is possible that his main thrust could be weakened because of internal tensions.

3. I would say we have to see what follows the new agreement on rare earths. Something more substantial could occur, although we are not sure yet if the United States will reverse its course on dealing with allies.

It first confronted them and antagonised them; maybe now we will start to find a new balance, a new agreement about policies to deal with China.

If that were to happen, China will have to deal with that and will have to prepare new strategies and tactics to confront a new environment.

Would Xi Jinping like his legacy to be the man who brought back Taiwan into the PRC's orbit, something even Mao or Deng Xiaoping could not achieve?

I think the lesson about Taiwan is that a military invasion is extremely risky and it could be a lose-lose proposition. If the general (who leads the invasion) wins, he could gain popularity, and challenge Xi Jinping's political leadership. If he loses the invasion, Xi Jinping would be held responsible and could be toppled. Therefore, it is far too risky.

On the other hand, maybe China is trying new tactics to win back Taiwan. Beijing has a lot of assets on the island. People who are nationalists and support the idea of a great China championed by the PRC and rich people eager to do business with Beijing.

In fact, in Hong Kong, you see that common people are growing hopeless because they are marginalised and don't have a great hope to improve their fate. But rich people who supported Beijing have become richer and are still in full control over the territory.

The same could be true with Taiwan and that could push rich people and nationalists to campaign for the PRC.

A pro-unification party could win (the next) election and therefore vote for eventual reunification. This seems a safer path to reunification.

If it succeeds, it is a great success. If it fails, there are no drawbacks. It is possible that Beijing would pursue these tactics, and this could actually put Japan or the United States in a difficult position.

Any invasion is easy to identify and counter. A change in the electoral vote is a different matter.

In your assessment, is there anyone who could succeed Xi Jinping if he were to die tomorrow? Or will Communist politics return to a more collegial leadership set up (ala Hu Jintao) than the personalised reign Xi established in his 14 years in power?

At the moment we are in uncharted waters. For the first time in a hundred years, the army has been taken out of the political equation. And for the first time ever, there is only one man who calls the shots. Not even Mao had this kind of power.

Therefore, we really don't know what he will do with this power. And if he has plans for succession and what will it be?

But as we have seen in these past 40 years, I would say we have to be prepared for something that comes out of the box, for some thinking that could be completely new. Or he would just bide his time and wait for a more stable international environment to move his pieces.

Photographs curated by Satish Bodas/Rediff