'Once elected, you have to act like people's representative for the full five years or else people show you your place.'
Dr Suman Maurya, assistant professor, department of political science, Rajasthan University, lists the reasons for the Congress defeat in Rajasthan.
"While anti-incumbency is a known factor in every election in the state, this time the Congress made several mistakes," she tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com.
What accounts for the Congress defeat in Rajasthan?
In the Rajasthan elections, anti-incumbency always play a role. While anti-incumbency is a known factor in every election in the state, this time the Congress made several mistakes.
The seven guarantees (LPG cylinders for for 10.5 million families at Rs 5,000 per cylinder; annual honorarium of Rs 10,000 to the women head of the family under the Griha Lakshmi Yojana guarantee; laptop or tablet for students taking admission in government colleges; purchase of dung from cattle rearers at Rs 2 per kg under the Gowdhan guarantee; Chiranjeevi health insurance scheme from Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh and insurance cover up to Rs 15 lakh per family to compensate for losses due to natural calamity and education in English mediuml law for the old pension scheme for government employees) promised by the Congress did not cut much ice with the voters because they knew that the government's coffers were not in good shape. People of Rajasthan know the economic crisis the state is facing.
The voters of Rajasthan realised that given the economic condition such freebies will never become a reality. So, the promise of seven guarantees, on which Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot planned to win this election, failed miserably to enthuse voters to vote for him or Congress.
The other factor that went against Congress was the late announcement of its candidates for the constituencies. The BJP had an upper hand over the Congress in this department as they were the first off the block to announce their candidates. This delay cost Congress much in this election.
The choice of candidates too was not to the people's liking. As many as 26 ministers of the Gehlot government lost their seats.
In the five years that the Gehlot government was in place, these ministers spent most of their time bickering among themselves or in trying to save their government by preventing poaching of their MLAs.
The entire resources of the government and Congress were spent on saving their government rather than governance.
The voters of Rajasthan are aware and educated. They didn't vote for what was promise to them on the eve of elections. They voted for what the government did, or failed to do, in the five years that it ruled the state.
The OPS (old pension scheme) implemented by the government was done in phases due to paucity of funds and people were seeing through all this. The beneficiaries of OPS were not at all happy with its implementation.
Given this scenario it was always an uphill task for Ashok Gehlot to beat anti-incumbency.
Did the issue of paper leak and the 'Red Diary' play its role in the Gehlot government's defeat?
The BJP has a strong media management team and this team ensured to put pressure on the Gehlot government and its ministers on issues of corruption. Be it the paper leak issue or that of the Red Diary, BJP's media management team reached out to the voters in Rajasthan through social, print and electronic media highlighting the corruption of Gehlot's ministers.
The Gehlot government, no doubt, implemented some of the best welfare schemes -- the Chiranjeevi Swasthya Bima Yojana and the Social Security Pension Scheme -- the state has seen for a long time.
But these successful schemes and Gehlot's good work were overshadowed by the issues of corruption and intra-party rivalries. The Congress' social media team too failed to showcase how they have changed lives of the poor in the state through their welfare schemes.
Why did so many ministers lose their seats?
In Rajasthan, ideology never plays a dominant, decisive role in elections. It is the face of the candidate and her/his reputation and image that people vote for.
Voters give more weightage to a candidate's personality, their work and their relationship with the voters.
These ministers lost because of their arrogance. If you think that voters will forgive you for knocking on their doors just once every five years then you are doomed to fail. These ministers made the same mistake steeped as they were in their arrogance of power.
Stalwarts from both the BJP and Congress lost in this election.
These 26 ministers lost because of their arrogance and hubris. They began looking upon themselves as Supreme.
Once elected, you have to act like people's representative for the full five years or else people show you your place. Don't forget that your supremacy comes with a shelf life of just five years.
Will Vasundhara Raje Scindia return as Rajasthan's chief minister?
People would be more interested in having a chief minister who would work for them, implement welfare schemes as well as improve the state's declining economic growth.
Whoever becomes the chief minister it will be very difficult for that person to dump the welfare schemes that the Ashok Gehlot government implemented. They will have to continue with them.
The elected MLAs will lobby for their favourites in Delhi, but the people of the state have no particular favourite this time. Whoever becomes the chief minister will have to work hard for the welfare of the people. Else, they will face the same fate in 2028 as the Congress faced in 2023.
People are looking up to a leader with a strong vision when it comes to improving their health, education and economic infrastructure.
You must know that the BJP did not project any individual as its chief minister while seeking people's vote. The BJP high command, which worked hard for this victory, will have all the right to name whoever they like as the state's chief minister.
What role did caste affiliation play in the BJP's victory or the Congress's defeat?
In India, elections have always been won on caste and religious equations. In Rajasthan too, caste and religious polarisation played its role (in the BJP's victory).
While both these factors did play out in favour (of the BJP), what worked really well for them (the BJP) was candidate selection.
