'A third wave is very likely to come because infection is still around.'
'But it can be just a ripple.'
There is a lot of speculation that is going around in India about the possibility of a third wave of COVID-19 striking the country soon.
Will there be a third wave? If at all it happens, will it hit India as hard as the second wave did?
Can it be prevented if the people of India and the authorities take adequate precautions?
Dr Rakesh Mishra, former director, Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, answers some of these questions in an interview with Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.
Dr Mishra is currently the JC Bose National Fellow and Distinguished Professor at CCMB, and also director, Tata Institute for Genetics and Society, Bengaluru.
Around 10% of India's population is vaccinated but according to the seroprevalence survey, 68% of the population has antibodies. Does that mean even if a third covid wave comes, it will be mild?
That is what is expected. But then 30% of the population, which is not protected by vaccine or seropositivity, is still a large number. And we don't want that population to get infected.
A third wave is very likely to come because infection is still around. But it may not be a wave and can be just a ripple. It may also be more local.
That is because of the reasons you have mentioned; that a large number of people are given one dose of the vaccine or both the doses which certainly helps. And we have seen seropositivity in a significant number of people, particularly in bigger cities.
The wave used to hit the big cities harder. So, there is likely to be less of a problem in case of a third wave.
Though seropositivity is not as protective as vaccination, it certainly helps. We don't see lot of reinfection which is a good sign.
Considering all this, I personally feel that we might not even notice a third wave, or if at all we have one, it may be a tiny wave.
Three factors are going to decide how big the wave will be:
The key factor will be whether we are going to adhere to covid appropriate behaviour or not. That is, whether we continue to wear masks and avoid large gatherings.
In every gathering, there will be someone who is not protected who can get infected and spread the virus to others.
Next is, we must vigorously test, trace and isolate those who are positive. This is a very effective way to prevent the virus from spreading.
If we don't test, we will not know who is spreading and where it is.
The third factor is vaccination. If we can vaccinate about one crore (10 million) people a day, it will create a big road block for the virus to spread in the coming months.
If we follow these three things effectively, and people co-operate, we might not even notice a third wave.
But two things that are not in our control are, we do not know how long the seropositivity will last. We do not know whether it will be six months or longer.
Some people got infected during the first wave and we do not know whether they still have antibodies. Let's hope that seropositivity prevails for a longer time.
The second factor that is not in our hands is the mutation of the virus. In fact, I would say it is in our hands partly. It is in our hands partly because the virus mutates when it infects people and multiply in our body.
If a large number of people, even if they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, carry the virus, they are giving the virus a chance to create new variants.
If some of the variants are worse than Delta, it can create problems.
Are you seeing any mutant which is more infectious than the Delta variant or Delta Plus?
Right now, we have not seen any new variant. Even Delta Plus is not so prevalent. Delta is the most prevalent one, causing more than 90% of the infections now.
Though Delta is very, very, infectious, it is good that we have been able to manage it now.
In fact, it is not very easy for a virus to create a mutant version that is more infectious than Delta. It is less likely. It means any new variant will have difficulty in coming.
But if we challenge the virus by opening all the restaurants, schools, public transport and stop wearing a mask, the virus will try out new mutations and one of which may become more infectious than Delta, and then we will have a problem.
You mean mutations happen only when a large number of people get infected?
Yes. When a large number of people get infected, large number of mutations will happen, and one or two of those can be dangerous.
Sometimes, some variants may remain in some pockets affecting a small number of people. They may also die down when the virus does not get any more people to infect.
For example, even if the most dangerous mutant infects a few people, and they isolate themselves completely, the mutant will not be able to reach another person and there ends the story of a dangerous variant.
That is how we have to attack the virus. We have to counter its mutating ability, which is the biggest weapon of the virus, by not letting it spread.
IMAGE: Dr Rakesh Mishra. Photograph: Kind courtesy Dr Rakesh MishraBy isolating yourself?
Yes. That's why testing and isolation are the counter strategy against the virus' biggest weapon of mutation rate. If we do that, we will be able to manage.
Now that we have learnt more about the virus and facilities are better, I don't expect disasters like the second wave happening again.
But citizens have a very important role to play by following social distancing, wearing a mask, not freaking out carelessly for a few more months and of course, getting vaccinated.
People should not drop the guard....
Not at all! The economic losses would be very huge which is in addition to the healthcare issues if another huge wave comes.
Poor people are already suffering a lot due to loss of jobs and businesses. How will they face more sufferings?
So, people should be aware of the risks the virus poses and not let it have a free run.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
