'The possibility of Nitish Babu continuing at least for some time is very much there, but don't rule out the artistic possibility of a leadership change executed very elegantly.'
"BJP might somehow be able to prevail upon him behind the scenes to nominate a BJP leader as CM and make it appear that he did so willingly," says Dr Kartikeya Batra, assistant professor of Economics at Azim Premji University and Visiting Fellow at CVoter Foundation.
"Of course, it will be stage managed for the optics. We really don't know how it is going to play out because the JD-U is supporting the BJP at the Centre," Dr Batra tells Rediff's Archana Masih in the concluding part of the interview discussing Nitish's political future, how Prashant Kishore hijacked Gen Zs from Tejashwi Yadav and the 'perfect storm' that routed the RJD.
- Part 1 of the Interview: 'Nitish Kumar Is Amitabh Bachchan Of Bihar Politics'
Tejashwi Yadav had hoped that Gen Z and youth would vote for him. What went wrong there?
Tejashwi Yadav targeted youth, but youth are not a uniform category. Male youth leaned toward him; female youth didn't -- partly due to intergenerational memories of 'Jungle Raj'.
The female youth kept hearing that 'Jungle Raj wapas aayega.'
I used to ask these young girls during my travels, who told you about this? They said our dadi, nani, mummy told us.
Meanwhile, the female youth who benefited with the cycle and uniform schemes became future Nitish voters.
Why did Tejashwi's promise of jobs not work in a state where unemployment is the biggest issue for youth?
Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party hijacked the entire aspirational narrative from Tejashwi Yadav.
Tejaswi was basically left with nothing at the end. Therefore, he had to make this bizarre claim that he would give a government job to each family which nobody believed.
This was his agenda item for the non-Muslim, non-Yadav blocs, but the agenda was hijacked by Jan Suraaj.
Why do you think Jan Suraaj performed so poorly?
In the last 10-15 days, Jan Suraaj was not present on the ground. It's as if they came, made a lot of noise and were missing towards the fag end of the campaign.
Their ticket distribution was supposed to dent certain political parties. In some cases the NDA; in many seats the candidate who was selected was preferred over someone who worked for Jan Suraaj for two years and whose caste profile hurt the Mahagathbandhan more -- examples include Tikari in Gaya and Kalyanpur in East Champaran.
All these factors created the perfect storm for the Mahagathbandhan.
Will Nitish Babu continue as chief minister? Or will he be upstaged by the BJP?
In states like Odisha and Bihar, the BJP waited for the patriarchs -- Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar -- to naturally phase out before asserting itself.
They did not disrespect them because they knew that after their departure, their parties will face survival issues, paving the way for the BJP to capture their voters.
That operation was successful in Odisha.
If Nitish Babu had not performed well, the BJP might have attempted a leadership change. After all, they fought the election in his name. He was the face of the NDA.
If the narrative of his poor health had worked, maybe they would have pushed for a leadership change, but the JD-U's numbers have complicated things.
However, maybe with the BJP at 89 and JD-U at 85, Nitish Babu might concede the CM's post to the BJP and make a graceful exit. The BJP has already given him a 5 year lease with a 43 headcount in the assembly.
He could graciously tell them that you are the bigger alliance partner, and I have had my time under the sun.
Of course, it will be stage managed for the optics. We really don't know how it is going to play out because the JD-U is supporting the BJP at the Centre.
I will not be surprised if the BJP is somehow able to prevail upon Nitish Babu behind the scenes to nominate a leader from the BJP to be the next CM and make it appear that he did so willingly.
Now? Or maybe a year or two down the line?
Why not now? They did this tactfully in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Despite having fought the election on the face of Mr Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Mohan Yadav took over with the blessings of the former.
Similarly, in Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje proposed the name of Bhajan Lal Sharma.
But they all belonged to the same party -- the BJP. Unlike Nitish Kumar who is an alliance partner.
That's the only complication.
The possibility of Nitish Babu continuing at least for some time is very much there, but don't rule out that artistic possibility.
If a leadership change does happen, it will be done very elegantly because optics matter.
What does this defeat mean for the RJD's future?
It can't get worse for the RJD.
The son is bearing the brunt of the parents' regime.
The RJD will have to recalibrate and ponder over what the Yadavs think of the party.
Their M-Y coalition is fraying, certainly within the M, especially among Muslims in Seemanchal, who have split between the AIMIM, Congress and RJD.
Even Yadavs may now wonder whether the RJD can ever return to power under this family.
The RJD will have to do some serious introspection.
Strategic errors or calling Rahul Gandhi's yatra a distraction are not enough to explain this wipe-out. The problem is fundamental.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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