'A Big Battle Is Going On Within The Congress In Kerala'

'They will have to adjust themselves to the new reality. Because if they don't understand this changed political perception, their future will be difficult.'

The Congress-led United Democratic Front's performance in the Kerala assembly elections is spectacular.

Getting 102 seats in a 140 seat assembly is not an easy task especially in a state like Kerala where the margin of victory has always been narrow. But not in 2026.

While the UDF vote share is 46.55%, the Left Democratic Front managed only 37.34%. The National Democratic Alliance had 14.2%. It was 38.81%, 43.48% and 11.4% respectively in the 2021 election.

"100 seats are a big surprise. 100 plus is unprecedented. You can call it a tsunami kind of result. But a tsunami will not stay there forever. It is momentary. It will recede with much greater force and when it retreats, it can be more destructive also. So, the UDF should realise that this is a very uneasy kind of victory," Political Commentator N P Chekkutty tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

'CPM Leaders Were Expecting Hindu Consolidation'

When we spoke before the polling, you had said that the UDF had an edge. Would you say the results are on expected lines?

I had said that the situation was very clearly in advantage to the UDF. I had also said that one of the reasons would be the kind of minority consolidation that was happening in Kerala.

When some of the national level issues created a lot of concern for the minority communities, here in Kerala, some CPM leaders behaved with an RSS mindset.

You said they were Islamophobic...

Instead of correcting it, they went on reinforcing it. I have been pointing this out on many platforms, but they refused to listen.

The CPM leaders, especially the top most leaders including Pinarayi Vijayan, were expecting a kind of Hindu consolidation by this posturing.

Did they think the Hindu votes would go to the BJP if they didn't take that stance?

Generally Kerala's lower caste Hindu people have always been with the Left. So the CPM thought if they criticised the Muslims, they could consolidate these votes as well as the Hindu upper caste votes from going to the NDA.

What happened was, in many constituencies like in Trivandrum, the LDF came third after the UDF and the NDA.

The CPM has lost a substantial chunk of votes this time, and all of them could not have gone to the UDF. A part of it might have gone to the BJP.

But the BJP got only 3 seats..

It is true but they had zero seats in the last assembly. I feel in a state like Kerala where the LDF and the UDF have completely monopolised the political scene, if the BJP could manage 3 seats, it is good.

The UDF got 102 seats which is a record. Is it anger against the LDF that worked in their favour? The real issue in this election was anti-incumbency, a kind of anger against the ruling party.

People wanted to send a message that they didn't want the government to continue.

Which party had the capacity to defeat them? The UDF. And not the NDA. But the trust people put on the UDF may not last for a long time unless they are very careful.

Right now, there is a real advantage for the UDF but I fear that may throw this away in another six months.

'Satheesan Is Not At The Beck And Call Of Casteist Communal Forces'

Why do you feel so?

I had seen the same kind of expectations when Oommen Chandy came to power in 2011. But what happened? The Oommen Chandy government came with a bang but within six months, they had completely destroyed the public goodwill they had.

There is a third front now. So, if the UDF doesn't perform, there is one more option available for people.

I hope the UDF leadership will have that realisation. In 2021, why was the UDF defeated? Why did the LDF come back to power? The main reason was infighting within the Congress party and also the disunity within the UDF.

As members of the UDF, the Congress and the Muslim League were not working together. Yes, the feeling at that time was why should we worry. People will elect us again. But the 2021 loss shattered their confidence. I admit they have realised their mistake.

If you look at the 2026 election campaign, at least in northern Kerala where the Muslim League is very powerful, and in the southern part, the Kerala Congress and other small groups are powerful, they were extremely cooperative and accommodative to each other. This was unprecedented.

I have never seen this kind of understanding and cooperation between these two parties.

V D Satheesan always spoke of Team UDF...

Satheesan's leadership did play a major role. He is a person who is not at the beck and call of casteist communal forces compared to other Congress leaders.

He seems to be a person of his own, a person who stands by his word. And that gives a lot of confidence to the people who are vulnerable, I mean the minorities, and backward caste people.

He is looked at as a person who can be trusted. His image is that of a person you cannot dictate terms with. This is a very important trait.

Do you think the other senior Congress leaders will agree to have V D Satheesan as the chief minister?

No, they may not. I know there is a big battle going on in the party. I have been speaking to some Congress leaders, and it seems Ramesh Chennithala's claim is that in 2011, he was the state party president and Oommen Chandy was the senior leader.

When Oommen Chandy wanted to be chief minister, Chennithala had agreed. Now, he is the senior-most leader.

What is going on within the Congress party as well as in political circles is that why not go for the Karnataka kind of solution to this? They will have to adjust themselves to the new reality. Because if they don't understand this changed political perception, their future will be difficult.

People are very demanding now. The younger leaders are also extremely demanding.

When you look at the electorate, they want immediate results. They prefer a new leader, a determined leader, a leader with new ideas, a leader who has solutions to the problems.

That is why they like Satheesan. That is why the Muslim League also spoke highly of Satheesan.

Do you feel common sense will prevail in the Congress party?

People won't wait for 5 years. If they don't show they are a responsible government in six months' time, public perception will change. Not just that, in India, the Congress party is in a very bad situation now.

Five states went to elections, and where is the Congress party except in Kerala? So, if the Congress wants to send a message to the people elsewhere in the country that they have a respectful approach to the minority communities under a very powerful and effective leadership in Kerala, and with all these alliance parties coming together.

They can send the message that the Congress is the party that can take care of the minorities also.

'The Primary Responsibility For This Defeat Goes To Pinarayi Vijayan'

What will happen to the Left? They are not in power anywhere in India...

Not just in India, even in Kerala, where is the Left? Even in their strongholds like Payyanur, Thaliparamba, Beypore, they have lost.

Who will you hold responsible? Is it because of Pinarayi Vijayan or the party leadership?

The primary responsibility for this kind of defeat goes to Pinarayi Vijayan.

Ever since he became secretary of the CPM in Kerala in 1998-1999, he was making every effort to destroy the internal democracy within the party.

If you want a political party like the CPM to survive, you must be willing to listen to voices from the grassroots.

That is what you call internal democracy, like the Communists say, criticism and self-criticism. Vijayan never allowed any kind of criticism within the party.

When he was CPM secretary, party members and party sympathisers kept quiet instead of telling the truth that this was not the way to run a political party. People wanted to give the party leaders a lesson. But I don't think the Communist party will be completely destroyed.

If the leadership is in a position to introspect, they will realise that those who are opposing them at various levels have a very long history with the party.

Now they are sending out a message that the party has to change, and change substantially. For that, the CPM leadership has to do some actual soul searching.

I know that a person like (CPM General Secretary) M A Baby knew everything, but he was not able to assert himself because of Pinarayi Vijayan's larger than life image.

Pinarayi controlled the party, controlled the government, controlled everything. He is a control freak. Now that he has been decimated, I think new critical voices will come up.

Soul-searching will happen, and maybe they (the CPM) will be able to reinvent themselves. It has to happen because there is a need for the Left ideology in the political spectrum.

The BJP spoke about more than 20% vote share and 10 to 15 seats. The vote share is 14% and only three seats...

The bravado was mainly on the part of people like Modi and Amit Shah who don't understand Kerala at all.

These are Gujarati politicians who are strangers to democratic politics. See, these people don't have the tradition of democratic politics within the party as well as in their society.

In Gujarat, I don't know for how many years the BJP has been in power. There is no Opposition there. They don't know what an Opposition is. They don't know what democratic politics is. They don't know how to behave in a democratic society.

In Parliament also, they behave as if they are dictators. In Kerala's political space, there is a possibility for another political party now that the Communist parties are on a declining path.

With internal strife, the CPM may not be able to revive themselves soon. An internal debate also may not happen. In such a scenario, they may destroy themselves.

If the Communists are unable to revive, though I hope they will, if they fail totally and disastrously, then there has to be a political party to fill the vacuum.

Then the BJP will become the default option. They have already become one with around 14% plus vote share.

The only problem is they don't have a solid realistic leadership. Now that the CPM and other Left parties are going down, a number of people may switch sides to the BJP.

Six former assembly members contested on rebel platforms. Three of them went to the BJP. It means, 50% of former Communist leaders took to the BJP. A few people went to the UDF also. But 50% of them found the BJP as an option.

Now that the CPM has faced a huge defeat, I am sure many very experienced leaders within the CPM may think of slowly switching to the BJP.

I see it as a possibility. You may ask why? Basically because the CPM has been voicing the kind of political ideas that you hear only in the right-wing political spectrum.

It's a natural slippery path, and when you slip, you slip into the BJP kind of political scenario.

In Tamil Nadu an actor came from nowhere and he is going to be the chief minister. So, a political vacuum can be filled by new entrants too.

If you take Tamil Nadu and Andhra, they always had this tradition of actors suddenly coming into politics and becoming successful.

You take N T Rama Rao. I was in Hyderabad in the mid-1980s with the Indian Express. It took only six months for him to emerge as a very powerful politician. But in Tamil Nadu, even tagging along with the AIADMK, the BJP has not been able to make an impact in Tamil Nadu politics unlike in Kerala.

Tamil people are much more identity conscious, and the Tamil identity is much more strong than the Kannada identity or Telugu identity or Kerala identity.

Dravidian culture is much more deep-rooted there. But in Kerala and Karnataka and other places, Dravidian culture and Dravidian history has mellowed down due to a lot of intermingling.

In Tamil Nadu, women have such a strong position in society. That is where they are completely different from the other southern states.

So long as the BJP remains a kind of a political party with a North Indian as well as male dominated ideology, it will be difficult for them to make a mark in Tamil Nadu.

In their heart of hearts, the BJP is an extremely north Indian, Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan party. And they are anti-women.

They speak about women's reservation but people understand that these people don't have any respect for women.

Tamil people really do understand what the BJP is. It's an instinct because of their tradition.

The Kerala results must have been a big surprise for you, I assume. Everybody thought the UDF had an edge but it crossed 100 which is a sweep.

100 seats are a big surprise. I was expecting 85 to 90 maximum. 100 plus is unprecedented.

You can call it a tsunami kind of result. But a tsunami will not stay there forever. It is momentary.

It will recede with much greater force and when it retreats, it can be more destructive also. So, the UDF should realise that this is a very uneasy kind of victory.

If they are not able to retain the confidence the public have bestowed upon them, they will feel disappointed.

It is a very big message for the winning party -- unless you perform from day one, it will be disastrous.

• Battle Of 5 States

Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff