Hindalco Likely To Elbow Out Trent For Sensex Spot

Hindalco Industries, Aditya Birla Group's metals flagship, is set to edge out Tata Group's Trent for a spot in the benchmark Sensex, according to an analysis by Brian Freitas of Periscope Analytics who writes on Smartkarma.

The reshuffle is part of the Sensex's semi-annual rebalance, with the review period set to conclude next week. The changes, likely to be announced in May, will take effect after market hours on June 19.

Shriram Finance and Hindalco are currently the highest-ranked non-constituents eligible for inclusion. Despite having a slightly lower average free-float market capitalisation, Hindalco is expected to be preferred over Shriram Finance to maintain sector balance, Freitas said.

The commodities segment remains underrepresented in the Sensex relative to the broader market, while financial services is overweight, tilting the balance in favour of Hindalco's inclusion.

The rejig is expected to trigger passive inflows of nearly Rs 3,800 crore into Hindalco, while Trent could see outflows of about Rs 2,327 crore. In trading terms, this translates into buying demand of more than five times Hindalco's average daily volume, with a similar magnitude of selling pressure in Trent.

Trent was added to the Sensex as recently as June 2025, but its underperformance over the past 18 months has hurt its ranking. The stock has declined about 18 per cent over the past year. In contrast, Hindalco shares have gained more than 60 per cent over the same period.

'Hindalco's stock price has climbed sharply over the past year and could break out to new highs. Trent, on the other hand, has underperformed over the past 18 months, and a potential index exclusion could add further pressure,' Freitas wrote.

In December, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles was replaced by InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) in the Sensex.

At present, apart from Trent, other Tata group firms in the 30-share index include Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Steel, and Titan Company. In contrast, UltraTech Cement is currently the sole Aditya Birla Group representative in the index.

-- Samie Modak, Business Standard