Given Modi's track record from the time he became Gujarat chief minister in October 2001, it is highly improbable that Nabin will get opportunities to display his individual capacity.
Even the team of organisational leaders that he will 'appoint' in a few weeks or months, will unlikely to be his choice, predicts Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
The hitherto little-known Nitin Nabin has formally taken over as the Bharatiya Janata Party's next president after a virtual non-election.
In the middle of December last when he was declared as the working president of the party, no explanation was provided, as to, when and where was the decision taken.
Unofficially, it was circulated that the agreement was reached at a meeting of the party's parliamentary board.
When probed on details of the time and venue of the meeting, it was explained that the deliberation was done online. No further details were shared.
Prior to December 15, when the announcement regarding Nabin's selection was made, there had been complete silence in party circles on the identity of J P Nadda's successor.
After that day, there was no conversation or mention regarding when Nabin would formally take over the presidentship of the party.
Suddenly on Friday, January 16, the electoral roll for 'electing' the BJP president was published along with the schedule for the election of the party president.
Thirty seven sets of nomination papers were filed for the same person and no other candidate filed their papers, quite like all previous elections.
The election of the BJP president, quite like that of most other parties (barring the Congress's fairly public last presidential election), is little but pretense which has to be gone through to meet the legal requirements of the Election Commission of India.
It was never different from the time of the party's inception in 1980, as an agreement was reached after deliberations and before the formal 'election', but these were duly publicised.
What was, however, importantly different previously, was that all the laid-out processes were gone though.
The BJP constitution specifies that its national and state councils must meet at least once every year and the national executive must be convened once every three months.
These constitutional directives are now barely followed, even when it is mandatory.
For instance, after the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Modi was not formally elected as leader of the BJP Parliamentary Party and thereafter stake claim to form the government as leader of the largest party with backing of alliance partners of the National Democratic Alliance.
The BJP parliamentary board also did not meet after the verdict and formally elected Modi.
Nitin Nabin: Challenges And Opportunities
Much has been said about the challenges that Nabin faces after assuming the office of the BJP president.
Given the backdrop mentioned previously, quite clearly the first test for him would be to restore procedures and the calendar of events that are laid out in the party's constitution.
He has to ensure that the trend since 2014, which has seen only 'events' featuring Modi being staged as well-choreographed events is reversed.
To do so, Nabin will also have to impress upon Modi that even meetings which may eventually be little but of ritualistic value, they have to still be convened and the motions gone through.
In ensuring that Nabin meets this challenge, Modi has to act on his words that as far as the party was concerned 'Nabin was his boss'. But would he do so after displaying no such inclination in the years since becoming India's premier? Or would Nabin be an even weaker party president than what his predecessor was?
Unlike even the feeblest of party presidents prior to him, the now largely overlooked (for the Tehelka bribery controversy in which he was embroiled in) Bangaru Laxman, Nabin has so far, neither had any innings in national politics, nor has he presided over any organisational body, save as the Bihar president of the Bharatiya Yuva Janata Morcha, the youth wing of the BJP.
But this innings too was played when the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal-United was the dominant partner in Bihar's ruling alliance and there was not much rabble-rousing -- an act that enables fast growth of the organisation -- which he could lead.
The additional problem which Nabin would have to tackle is very similar to the ones faced by any employee in any organisation when her or his appointment is made by the boss after bypassing several other potential candidates for the position.
Since the middle of 2024, from when Nadda began overstaying his term of three years, which in any way was completed in 2023, among the speculations, none named Nabin.
The 'list' started with the other 'elders' in the Union Cabinet -- Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Shivraj Singh Chouhan and went through various options, including a woman leader as party president.
All of them would not be greatly elated at his appointment. Besides having to work out cordial ties with this lot, Nabin will also have to work with state chief ministers, especially those who are far greater charismatic personalities in their states -- chiefly Yogi Adityanath and Devendra Fadnavis, both of who are expected to throw their hat in the ring in the post-Modi scenario.
Additionally, Nabin would have to cope with the present organisational leaders who have been functioning as general secretary or vice president and are most likely not to given another term, but the party high command would in all probability make them wait for a while and thereafter, depending on their 'behaviour', consider them for the Rajya Sabha or government.
The questions of challenges before Nabin should be weighed only in the event of concluding that he will be allowed sufficient elbow room to function independently.
Given Modi's track record from the time he became Gujarat chief minister in October 2001, it is highly improbable that Nabin will get opportunities to display his individual capacity.
Even the team of organisational leaders that he will 'appoint' in a few weeks or months, will unlikely to be his choice.
Instead, they will be handpicked by Modi with bare minimal consultation with Union Home Minister and former party president Amit A Shah.
In this set of circumstances, the biggest challenge before the new President would be to understand the directives that are issued for him to follow and ensure that these are implemented.
The relationship between the government and the ruling party has chiefly been tilted in favour of the former as party leaders who become part of the government institutions after winning an election, tend to establish hegemonic control over the ruling party.
Sooner than later, the party gets reduced to being 'ruling' only in name.
This has been the case with the BJP too from 2014 onwards and has been fairly different from what prevailed during the time Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister.
The challenges before Nabin's office are those that are that Modi faces.
It should never be overlooked that the biggest post-2014 organisational 'blot' in the BJP graph was the failure during Nadda's tenure to secure a majority. But that humbling result was not due to any error or over confidence on Nadda's part.
Part of the reason for the BJP dropping twenty percent of the seats it won in 2019 was due to the unenthusiastic involvement of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh cadres along with those of its non-BJP affiliates.
This stemmed from several factors, primary of which was the ceaseless projection of the Modi cult and personalisation on politics.
Nabin's selection was not run past the RSS leadership as Modi finally chose to ensure that he would remain functionally autonomous vis-à-vis the Sangh leadership.
Messers Mohan Bhagwat & Co have accepted this finally for the moment because Modi has fulfilled and further pursuing the ideological objectives of the Hindutva votaries.
Much has been said that Nabin's election marks a generational change. This claim however rings hollow as there has been no change where it really matters.
Despite the formal change in the BJP's leadership, it is going to be business as usual.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay's latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project. He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. His X handle is @NilanjanUdwin
Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
© 2026