The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair, points out Sunita Narain.
Key Points
- US-Israel war on Iran has severely disrupted global energy supplies, triggering shortages, price spikes, and economic distress worldwide.
- Rising oil prices and fuel scarcity are worsening trade deficits, household expenses, and creating long queues at fuel stations globally.
- Developing nations are accelerating renewable adoption due to affordability, energy insecurity, and lack of existing fossil fuel infrastructure.
- Closure of Strait of Hormuz threatens long-term supply stability, potentially ending era of cheap and abundant fossil fuels.
- Energy transition is increasingly driven by national security concerns, pushing investments in solar, EVs, and domestic energy capabilities.
The disastrous war waged against Iran by the United States and Israel has disrupted energy supply across the world.
Governments in both rich and poor countries are warning their people of dire times ahead, unlike anything seen before by this generation -- acute energy scarcity, rationing and the prospect of cars and planes running out of fuel.
The question then is: What will the future energy map look like?
As I ask this, I request you to not make light of the assassinations, the thousands of lives lost, and the senseless destruction that we witness so clearly as we scroll on our screens.
Let us also not make light of the real pain that this energy disruption has brought to our world.
Many countries are facing shortages of cooking fuel, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and households are spending vast portions of their income to procure it at any cost.
Long queues at fuel stations are becoming common -- again, driving up costs that people can barely afford.
In most countries, particularly in our world, fuel imports are the highest charge on trade deficits and in this scenario, rising oil prices have crippling effects on economies.
Fuel Shortages Hit Households
There is also the impending shortfall in global fertiliser supply, which is expected to hit farmers hard -- people who are already reeling from extreme weather driven by climate change and distorted global food prices.
All in all, the world is on its knees -- not by choice, but because of its pusillanimous and pathetic response to this senseless US-Israel war on Iran.
The rule-based order and all its morality lie in tatters. Let's at least be clear on this.
But we are left with the question of what the impact of this energy shock will be.
Even before this unseemly war, the world was in the midst of an energy transition -- steadily replacing coal with renewables for electricity, and displacing the use of petrol and diesel in vehicles.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency's March 2026 report, by the end of 2025, renewables accounted for close to 50 per cent of the world's installed electricity generation; 85 per cent of new power additions that year were renewables, mainly solar and wind.
What is interesting is that this energy transition was not only happening where one might expect, like China or Europe, but also in developing and emerging economies.
A recent report by think-tank Ember, in partnership with a coalition of 74 of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, found that they were fast-tracking electrotechnology (electrotech) -- not due to climate change but because it was faster, cheaper, and more reliable.
These low- and middle-income economies are fuel importers, and for them, the energy crisis is real: Over 700 million still lack reliable energy for basic needs.
This also means they are not yet connected to the grid and so can adopt an alternative energy system at speed and scale.
The costs of solar panels and batteries and electric vehicles (EVs) have become affordable, and importing from China is feasible for them.
These countries can bypass fossil fuel and fast-track renewables.
The report says: 'Namibia and Togo lead in solar generation, Jordan and Kyrgyzstan in battery sales, and Nepal and Sri Lanka in EV uptake.'
In the latter two countries, close to 70 per cent of new vehicles were electric.
Energy Security Reshapes Strategy
The current disruption has raised the cost of energy imports and made countries aware of the need for energy security.
Already, there is a new scramble to gain markets for oil and gas -- Nigeria, Guyana, Russia, and, of course, the US will be sourced for energy.
This could well push countries to utilise more of their own resources -- from coal to charcoal -- both of which are polluting.
But it could also spur the transition away from fossil fuels, as imported solar panels and batteries are now available.
All this will reshape the future of energy. The current oil and gas crisis is not just short-term.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair.
This could well mean that the time for cheap and abundant fossil fuels is over.
The cost of energy is the cost of economic growth and so, this changed scenario will mean reworking plans for energy security.
The drivers would be cost; the national manufacturing capability of green technologies, including solar and electric vehicles; and also what is better for energy security-related supply chains.
In all this, sources of clean energy and more efficient use of existing supplies can and must play a central role.
But this time, the rationale for the clean-energy transition would be rooted in national energy security, with the possibility to achieve the co-benefit of climate mitigation.
As I write this, I must acknowledge, with much sadness, that the future is not going to be easy.
The current time tells me that we, as a global society, have regressed. It is going to be hard to pick up the pieces from these ruins of human depredation and depravity.
We will find it hard to solve global problems like climate change in a world that is so abjectly broken and divided.
Sunita Narain is at the Centre for Science and Environment.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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