Why Modi's Crackdown Could Backfire Politically

Modi's greater weakness is his inability since July when he directed the exit of Dharmendra Pradhan, to come up with a political counter strategy.

Security measures and executive orders as seen in recent days will only likely further weaken him and make him as lame duck a premier as many prior to him, Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh included, observes Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.

In June 2015, significant sections of the Indian media, then relatively more venturesome, than now, were engaged in stories on India's experience during the Emergency (as imposed by then prime minister Indira Gandhi) to mark fortieth anniversary of its imposition.

Given striking similarities between her and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, several veteran political leaders, including from the Bharatiya Janata Party, were asked if India could be subjected to another Emergency under him.

Lal Krishna Advani was among those eminently qualified to present his assessment -- after all, he had been information and broadcasting minister in the Janata Party government and had intimate knowledge how media was manipulated and controlled in that dark period.

He also knew Modi intimately and had waged a successful battle, within the party, for his continuance as Gujarat chief minister after the 2002 riots.

Advani's string of comments ranged from the ominous assertion that he 'could not guarantee an Emergency-like suspension of civil liberties would never happen again in India', to the more insightful viewpoint, that 'desire for power can make a person behave ruthlessly", and that "forces that can crush democracy... are stronger now'.

A journalist, who shall remain unnamed, confided on a conversation with a one-time close Modi aide in Gujarat. He too was put the same question. The reply however, was more portentous: "Emergency will not be in name, but you will be able to feel it!"

That sense, the feeling or awareness, spread over two days the past weekend in the Indian capital and large parts of the country, as an unprecedented number of police and other security personnel with their arms and ammunition, took control of the streets.

Trains to the capital were stopped, dozens of metro stations shut, public bus services were banned in central Delhi -- the city's citadel that protestors aimed to breach, hundreds of political activists were detained, new CCTV cameras with Facial Recognition installed across New Delhi, Delhi Police personnel visit mosques to warn parents and elders that youth should be counselled to stay home and not venture around any protest march, security forces made public announcements asking people to desist from participating in protests and a huge surge of videos began circulating threatening punitive action against so called, 'anti-nationals' joining protestors.

The government's response to the call for protests on the central demand for Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar's resignation, the government's response and a sense of virtual imposition of the Emergency was paradoxical.

It was ironical because Modi cut his teeth, as a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh pracharak in the early to mid 1970s.

Initially, he politically shepherded sections of the youth whose Nav Nirman protest movement in Gujarat, contributed considerably to Indira Gandhi imposing the draconian measures.

Later, during the fearful period, he remained underground and played an important part in ferrying banned literature and escorting top leaders like George Fernandes to safe houses and evading arrest.

Quite like measures back then, the present directives and orders too were draconian and detentions in thousands took place far from the prohibited zone.

Modi failed to comprehend that in his over reaction, the government and the BJP handed victory in this round to a slew of individual protestors, a motley bund of students' and youth organisations and, of course, re-energised Opposition parties, especially the INDIA Bloc.

How Modi lost a generation of young voters

Importantly, a large number of those lending voice to the demand for Gyanesh Kumar's resignation were hitherto a de-politicised lot.

However, over the past four months, from mid-June to be precise, when the disbelief over Chief Justice of India Surya Kant's 'cockroach' assertion, gradually converted to anger against the system and people made common cause with those not part of their demographic community.

The politicisation of this lot, importantly an entire generation comprising students and youth -- many of who are going to be first-time voters in the next parliamentary polls -- is the biggest loss for Modi insofar as a vote segment is concerned.

The moot point at this juncture is not over whom, or which party, will this lot support in the next hustings, because the Opposition pack is being shuffled.

Rather, the principal development which should worry Modi is that this section has turned away from him and the BJP.

In the years that the UPA-II government was spiralling out of control and gradually nose-diving towards electoral void, BJP leaders responded with smirk and recited the Sanskrit proverb: Vinashkale viprit buddhi (At the time of destruction, the intellect turns opposite or perverse).

The same can be stated about the most recent declaration of the government -- de-notification of the Jantar Mantar area as a protest site.

At a time when the list of issues, which is enabling mobilisation of people in thousands and innumerable more 'virtually', the government has just handed its adversaries with another bomb of an issue.

'Restore people's Jantar Mantar as a protest site', will sooner or later be likely added to the matters which will be harnessed to gather more protestors. It simply shows Modi as being completely out of depth and unable to fathom options save those that draw on the power of the barrels of the guns, and handlers of such life-threatening ammunition.

Protest curbs raise democratic concerns

The government appears to be gradually moving towards complete disregard of India's Constitutional values.

Every citizen of India is Constitutionally entitled to the fundamental right to peaceful assembly and protest, but it is intent on squashing this entitlement.

Shifting the protest ground to the fringe of the city will neither lead to cessation of protests, nor will it prevent the emergence of more Jantar Mantar like protest sites, and not just in Delhi, but in innumerable other metros, cities and towns.

The powers that be must keep in mind that in July, the protest which began in Delhi, were replicated in an estimated 100 odd other urban centres.

They may have been smaller in size, but were indicative of the pall of fear, that had enveloped the land for the past decade or so, having been lifted.

Each executive order, every effort aimed at mobilising security forces to restrain unarmed peaceful protestors will hereon, only underscore another setback for the Executive and its leader.

It has been well known that the neutrality of the Election Commission of India has been defaced over several years.

The process began most noticeably in 2019 when Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa publicly dissented against multiple ECI rulings that cleared PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah of Model Code of Conduct (MCC) violations during the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign.

His minority viewpoint was not included in official proceedings and eventually investigative scrutiny of his family resulted in his decision to resign in 2020.

Besides this, there were several instances of the ECI delaying election announcements and the opposition alleged this was aimed at providing greater time-window to the prime minister to announce poll-eve sops before the Model Code of Conduct kicked in.

Besides this, there was the concerted move of the Centre to remove the CJI from the panel that appointed Election Commissioners.

The controversy over the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls is still raging and the Opposition parties along with the Cockroach Janta Party are demanding complete rollback of the SIR.

There is now also a growing sense among people that the verdict in West Bengal in May 2026 was 'stolen'.

While there have been similar accusations in the past in the state, this is the first time that the 'theft' of the results is not being attributed to a political party, but to the Election Commission.

There is no denying that Modi has been walking on the brink ever since the CJI's cockroach jibe ricocheted not at him but at the government too.

How voter roll controversies could hurt Modi in 2029

It is difficult to foresee each twist and turn in the country's future political trajectory and the likely developments before the next parliamentary elections are due in 2029.

Despite Modi increasingly resorting to use of force and coercion to suppress dissent, the Indian system necessitates the leader to secure a democratic endorsement.

This alone explains his efforts at not stopping at shaping the Election Commission as a pliable institution, but also allegedly preparing electoral rolls that are more likely to throw up a verdict permanently in favour of the BJP.

Analysis of the SIR and results from West Bengal demonstrate that deletion of voters' names in the SIR process was the highest among demographic communities that had a history of voting overwhelmingly in favour of the Trinamool Congress -- women and the religious minorities.

If people across India start having a general sense that the voting lists have been totally tampered with and turned to secure victory for the BJP, political resentment at the party will heighten in the period between now and the next Lok Sabha elections.

But prior to that there are crucial state elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, before the last round in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh before 2029.

The Opposition is seemingly getting its act together, and Rahul Gandhi has been speaking with far greater confidence than ever before. This is no happy augury for the BJP.

Modi's greater weakness is his inability since July when he directed the exit of Dharmendra Pradhan, to come up with a political counter strategy.

Security measures and executive orders as seen in recent days will only likely further weaken him and make him as lame duck a premier as many prior to him, Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh included.

Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay's latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project. He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. His X handle is @NilanjanUdwin

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff